Market participants have shown increasing confidence and enthusiasm for emerging markets (EM) in 2017 and the IMF projects EM’s contribution to global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will rise from 66% in 2017 to 78% by 2022, providing a supportive backdrop for capital inflows. As major central banks scale back the monetary accommodation they have in place since the financial crisis, will emerging markets lose its darling status and what role will geopolitics play in the equation?
Geopolitics will dominate headlines this year across emerging markets with key elections in Latin America (Columbia, Mexico and Brazil), Southeast Asia (India, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia) and EEMEA (Hungary, Russia and Egypt). Whilst the outcome of these elections will no doubt impact these markets, increasing US protectionism will potentially pose the biggest risk to global trade. We take a closer look at how risks like elections, increasing US protectionism, initiatives such as China’s One Belt, One Road program and economic diversification are likely to impact investment and growth in emerging markets.
Renuka Fernandez, Senior Rates Strategist, EMEA
Inan Demir, Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Benito Berber, Senior Latin America Economist
Euben Paracuelles, Senior ASEAN Economist
Annisa Lee, Head of Asia ex-Japan Flow Credit Analysis
Bilal Hafeez, Head of EMEA Fixed income Research & Global Head of G10 FX & Rates Strategy
Sergei Voloboev, Sovereign Credit Strategist, CEEMEA
Peter Attard Montalto, Head of Emerging Markets, Middle East and Africa Economics