Nomura

Key investment themes: Darker clouds appearing

  • Our analysts have turned to a more negative outlook on the global economic outlook, and believe global growth has peaked
  • A range of reasons are discussed, including heightened levels of trade protectionism, the prospective withdrawal of liquidity of central banks, higher oil prices and an aggressive slowdown in China

In this podcast, Andy Cates, Head of Developed Markets Economics Research and Sam Bonney, from our Macro Strategy Research team, discuss the global macro-economic environment.

Having been constructive on the outlook for the world economy over the last several months it’s time to reassess. Several clouds have now appeared that have darkened the global economic outlook in our view. At the very least these clouds suggest the annual pace of global GDP growth has now peaked and that a deceleration phase now lies ahead. But those clouds suggest too – by definition – that the risks to our growth forecasts (and the market’s forecasts) are now tilted to the downside. We stress that absent much higher inflation levels in the US and other advanced economies and/or a bigger build-up of financial imbalances that the chances that any deceleration phase morphs into a recessionary phase for the world economy are still quite slim.

Read more on why stagflation risks are rising, why several clouds are darkening the global economic outlook, or read our most recent report on global investment themes.

Contributors

  • Andy Cates

    Head of Developed Markets Economic Research

  • Sam Bonney

    Macro Strategy Research

Suggested views