Nomura

Italy's growth outlook, US-China trade wars and will we have a Brexit deal agreed soon?

  • How is Italy approaching the future and what risks on growth are there with the fiscal deficit announcement looming?
  • What outcomes could we expect from the Brexit Summit in Salzburg and how will this impact any leadership contest for the Conservatives?
  • We take a more hawkish view on the US-China trade dispute and this month will prove critical for this relationship and NAFTA negotiations

European and global markets are most definitely back from the summer and the global slowdown, and more specifically the Eurozone impact, is on our radar with economic and political outlooks in Italy and a critical time with the Salzburg Summit taking place on from 19 September. Our FX Strategist, Jordan Rochester, speaks with our Italian Economist, Chiara Zangarelli, to look at the issues Italy is facing, the Salzburg Summit and thoughts on where the US-China trade relationship is heading.

While we think it is early days to call a recession for Italy, there is clear risk on growth, inflation is subdued and the fiscal deficit is driving market behaviours. In late September, Italy's Economic and Financial Document is due for submission and this could have an impact on Italy's credit rating.

The 19-20 September Salzburg Summit will see leaders converge on Austria for conversations with a strong political tone. The mood music on Brexit has shifted more to how soon a deal can be done and the Summit's tone could well inform the UK Conservative's party conference in October.

Moving further afield from Europe, we're taking a more hawkish view on the US-China trade position and carefully watching the NAFTA negotiations taking place in September.

For full insights and the trades we recommend, read European Perspectives: Italy's budget and Fading the peak in 'No Deal' pricing.

Contributors

  • Jordan Rochester

    FX Strategist

  • Chiara Zangarelli

    Italy Economist

Suggested views