What's on the horizon for the global economy?

グローバル経済見通しとマーケット情報を毎週更新

  • 世界各国の経済見通しを地域ごとに紹介
  • マーケットを動かす注目の3テーマをポッドキャストで紹介 (英語のみ)
  • 今週の主要なイベントをカレンダー形式にて掲載

Boris Johnson: You can't fix the NHS without fixing social care. Yes, I accept that this breaks a manifesto commitment, which is not something…which is not something I do lightly, but a global pandemic was in no one's manifesto.

Jordan Rochester: Hello, and welcome to The Week Ahead on Nomura podcasts. I'm your host Jordan Rochester from the Global Markets research team, and today is Friday, the 10th of September. In this episode of The Week Ahead, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets next week. We'll be watching out for US inflation and the retail sales data; a big week for UK data; vaccine boosters, events in Asia, and the key risks ahead.

In the US, the focus will be August CPI and retail sales.

In the US the Fed will be in the blackout period for the September FOMC meeting. So we will not have any Fed speak next week. That said, Williams was pretty clear this past week that the core remains comfortable with a November tapering announcement.

In terms of data, the main focus will be on the August core CPI and retail sales. We are expecting a further moderation in core CPI inflation to 0.2% on the month from 0.3% in July, corresponding to a 4.1% year-on-year inflation rate. That's down from 4.3% in July. It's because we expect used vehicle prices to remain soft. However, we do see some upside risk from new vehicle prices and rent. For retail sales, we believe we could see another relatively weak print in August, considering the high-frequency data on credit card spending from the BEA. We will get some sense as to the impact of the latest surge of COVID cases on service spending, given that retail sales includes a food services category. But more comprehensive data on service spending will likely need to wait until we get the monthly PCE data, which comes at the end of September. It's worth noting as well for next week that the lagged impact of Hurricane Ida may distort releases for initial jobless claims and also industrial production.

Next week, fiscal policy developments bear monitoring as Congress has not yet settled on a clear path for avoiding a government shutdown and addressing the debt limit. Here's how Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi framed the argument this week:

Nancy Pelosi: When…go back when President Obama was president, and the Republicans were insisting on not lifting the debt ceiling. Eventually they—we did, but when they were saying they weren't going to, even the threat of not lifting it lowered our credit rating. Totally irresponsible. So hopefully we don't get in a situation like that. We'll have several options. We'll make them well known to you as we narrow and as we go forward. But it has to happen. Again, three times during the Trump administration, we all cooperated to get past this. And hopefully they will be responsible.

(Reporter): Are the democrats willing to act alone to raise the debt ceiling if they have to; would you put it in reconciliation or something like that?

Nancy Pelosi: We won't be putting in reconciliation.

Jordan Rochester: Treasury Secretary Yellen wrote a letter to Congress this past week suggesting the debt limit X-date, which is when the Treasury could run out of cash, could fall as early as October, although her forecast was likely somewhat conservative in order to spur legislative action. At the same time, fissures emerged this week within the Democratic caucus over the Biden administration's push for a large, Democrat-only infrastructure bill. That debate will likely continue next week, as moderates in the party continue to push for a smaller price tag.

Next week in Europe, the focus will be on the UK, but before we do that, it's also worth reminding ourselves what we learned this week with Madame Lagarde at the ECB and what she said about the inflation forecast ahead:

Christine Lagarde: Measures of longer-term inflation expectations have continued to increase. But these remain some distance from our 2% target. The new staff projections foresee annual inflation at 2.2% in ‘21, 1.7% in ‘22, and 1.5% in ’23, being revised up compared with the previous projections in June. Inflation, excluding food and energy price inflation, is projected to average 1.3% in ‘21, 1.4% in ‘22, and 1.5% in ’23, also being revised up from the June projections.

Jordan Rochester: It will be quiet for the euro area data next week. But there'll be a lot to talk about with the UK. It's why I spoke with George Buckley from the European economics team. George, in Europe next week, what should we watch out for?

George Buckley: The biggest amount of data, Jordan, next week is going to be coming through in the UK. We do have some European data, for example we have industrial production for the month of July, we have final inflation numbers. But I think more importantly, is the raft of data that we get from the UK. And that includes things like the labor market report—always well watched, and especially at this time, when we're all sort of scratching our heads as to work out what's going to happen to employment after the furlough scheme ends. But we've also got the inflation figures, and of course everyone's focused on inflation right now. So that's going to be a big focus. We're expecting a bounce in inflation, largely because of what happened a year ago. So base effects because of the “eat out to help out” scheme in reverse.

Jordan Rochester: Okay, so what sort of bounce is that? Is that 2% to 3%? What sort of bounce are we talking, George?

George Buckley: Not far off, actually, it's 2% to 2.8% in our forecast, which is a sizable bounce. Some of that—about 0.5 percentage points of it—is created by this base effect from “eat out to help out”. But the rest of it simply because we're looking at stronger upstream prices, and that eventually—with not very long a lag—tends to filter into CPI. We also get the producer prices numbers next week as well, and they will be just as important to watch out for. We've had very little letup in the surveys—the manufacturing surveys such as the PMIs, the CBI surveys—in those output price numbers. So watch out for those two.

Jordan Rochester: Indeed, the data on the UK is pretty interesting. So there's growth surveys showing signs, or mobility data showing signs, of slowing down. But we've had a lot of people return back to the offices this September, with schools going back. So COVID cases, the risks are that they continue to rise, and we've seen Scotland situation (Scotland's about two weeks ahead of the UK, with schools returning) leading to historical highs of COVID data. So that's a sort of negative risk to the UK outlook, of course, but the other one is on the availability of staff. We're recording this on Thursday, George, this morning we had the REC survey, which shows the labor market, and we're having essentially staff demand at the highest it's ever been in decades, minus the availability of staff. And that's leading to wages rising. So the question, George, is, I know you mentioned CPI, base effects. The Bank of England will typically looks through that sort of thing. And I think indeed, that's what they've said they will do. But with the surveys on the labor market, moving the way they are, George, and the return to the offices that we've seen, and we're getting headlines that TFL in London has had the highest amount of traffic since March 2020. Aren't the risks more towards the Bank of England becoming a bit more hawkish than we've recently seen?

George Buckley: I think you're absolutely right; that is the way the risks are tilted. I think that—a couple of points—is that in retail sales, they may not necessarily rise because people go back to the office, because what you tend to see is that people might be buying less food for consumption at home. And restaurant meals are not included in the retail sales numbers. But for example, food bought from supermarkets is, and so that might have a negative impact on that. Now, that’ll be interesting to see as we get the August retail sales numbers next week, as well. But when it comes to the inflation point, I think you can actually use the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report—and their forecasts contained within—as supportive evidence that they won't do as much as the market expects. And this sort of explains our view that they won't move interest rates until a bit later than the market. And the reason I say that is because, based on no change in interest rates, the Bank of England thinks that inflation will be just over 2% in three years’ time. Based on a market change in interest rates, they think they'll be about a tenth under the inflation target. So if you think of that—well, one way to think of that is to say, “Well, let's assume they do something in between the market and nothing”. And that really is effectively our forecast, which is that they delay rate hikes a bit longer. But I think the premise of your question is absolutely spot on. I wouldn't be surprised to see members of the MPC looking at things like wage data, rising inflation right now—and it is going to go up to levels, we think about 4% in the very near term—and looking at those numbers and saying, “Yeah, we've got a potential problem here. And we need to think about tightening policy earlier.” So that's a risk.

Jordan Rochester: Indeed, I remember this time last year in September, before vaccines have been rolled out, you know, cases were very low before schools went back. And workers were encouraged to go back to the office. So there was quite a lot of optimism at the end of August, beginning of September last year ‘round for that. And then we saw COVID cases rise. And then as we know, winter was pretty tough with the Alpha variant being found in Kent. So that COVID story is still going to weigh on the Bank of England outlook. Is that right?

George Buckley: I think it will. And you know, there are concerns that case numbers could potentially go up from here. I think if that were to happen, even if it wasn't associated with more restriction, there is a risk that people might pare back on their activity. We're going into the winter season, we don't know how that's going to be, how that's going to affect the COVID statistics. One thing we do know is, you mentioned vaccinations or at least keeping hospitalization and death numbers low, which is which is encouraging, but it's still the case that people might rein back on their activity, their economic activity, if case numbers start to rise.

Jordan Rochester: It's definitely a tricky time for markets. Well, thank you, George.

George Buckley: Thanks, Jordan.

Jordan Rochester: Now for looking at the situation in Japan and Australia.

Next week on the 17th of September, the LDP leadership election will finally be announced. And by that time, we will get to know who will be the full list of candidates for this year's election. We see three candidates, Mr. Kishida, Mr. Kono, and Ms. Takaichi. Those three will likely be the major contenders of the election. While Mr. Kishida is assumed to be the current front runner, Mr. Kono is the one with strong support from the public according to opinion polls. Ms. Takaichi is assumed to be in behind Mr. Kishida and Mr. Kono, but she may start getting more support from some LDP members, as she has revealed a promise of doing Abenomics-style economic policies. Although it's difficult to read the votes, the results of this weekend's opinion polls should hopefully give us some more clues as to who are gaining more support from the public.

In Australia, we expect the impact of lockdowns to show up in weaker August data next week. We think the NAB Business Survey will likely show a further dip in conditions, and we expect the monthly Labour Force report to reveal net job losses of around 100k. While some of the weakness should show up in a lower participation rate and a material drop in hours worked, we think the unemployment rate could rise by around three-tenths, to 4.9%. Next week also brings a speech from the RBA governor, on Tuesday. While the exact topic is yet to be announced, this should also attract much attention, following the RBA’s decision this week to stick with its modest tapering plan, slowing as pace of QE buying to AUD4bn per week out to mid-February.

Now it's time to take a look at the state of COVID-19.

If I was to describe the global situation in terms of cases and fatalities, it is better than over the past week. Global COVID-19 cases are still rising 575,000 on average per day around the world; daily fatalities are around 9,000 per day on average. But that is lower than what it was a week or two ago. There are signs that the peak of infections, for example in the US, may have come, and that's—when it comes to cases, going more into detail on the majors: as I mentioned, the US cases are slowing down as well as the hospitalizations. The same can be said for Japan, France, and Italy. But there' are some exceptions to the rule: Germany's COVID-19 cases continue to rise, and the UK’s, too, with the return of schools in England.

But the good news this week in Israel, for example—the world’s case study as to how effective the Pfizer vaccine is—has seen their cases, hospitalizations, and deaths or slow down this past week, perhaps a sign their booster campaign may bear fruit.

In the UK, the debate is on how soon vaccine passports will be reintroduced in England, as well as the decision to whether to vaccinate 12 to 15 year olds, as well as the timing of this autumn and winter booster program we expect to see, too. However, this week in UK politics was dominated by the rise in National Insurance taxes, which you heard at the start of the podcast—Prime Minister Boris Johnson explaining as to why. That tax rise will be effective, but not until April 2022. We're going to hear a lot about booster jabs in the weeks to come. But the WHO is calling for countries—developed countries in particular—to delay those programs to help the rest of the world get vaccinated. Here's the WHO’s Dr. Tedros as to what he thinks about the matter:

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: Almost 90% of high-income countries have now reached the 10% target and more than 70% have reached the 40% target. Not a single low-income country has reached either target. That's not their fault. Almost every low-income country is already rolling out the vaccines they have. I'm calling for an extension of the moratorium until at least the end of the year, to enable every country to vaccinate at least 40% of its population.

Jordan Rochester: But it’s political, and developed countries don't necessarily agree with it. Here's the White House press secretary Jen Psaki in response to a question on the very matter.

Jen Psaki: Our view is that this is a false choice, and the United States has donated and shared about 140 million doses with over 90 countries—more than all other countries combined—or donating half a billion doses to 100 countries in need.

Jordan Rochester: When it comes to vaccines—41% of the world has now received at least a first dose of the vaccine. 1.5% of the world population is getting a first dose each week. It won't work this way given the vaccine holdouts and children, but if that pace holds up, that's 10 months until the entire world population receives a first dose.

And if looking at the majors’ vaccine rollout, Japan has kept their rollout at a pretty healthy pace of 3% a week. Now 61% of Japan has received a first dose. That's overtaking the US in terms of first doses, which is a remarkable achievement. The EU for first doses is on 65%, the UK and Canada on 71% and 74%. Whilst they have slowed down their rollout, the EU, the UK, and Canada's numbers do continue to at least slowly climb at the very least, meaning the race for vaccines continues with booster shots to come.

And finally a focus on the key data and the events in Asia.

In China, we expect activity growth to broadly weaken in August, with our forecast well below market consensus, due to negative impacts from the latest wave of COVID-19 and Beijing's tightened measures on the property sector and high polluting industries. We expect the year-on-year growth of industrial production to fall further to 5% in August, as Beijing's aggressive measures to reduce carbon emissions may more than offset the rebound we've seen in export growth. High-frequency data, including the EPMI, the operation ratio of blast furnaces, and steel rebar output also point to a weaker momentum in industrial production growth.

We expect Chinese fixed asset investment growth to fall as well, to -3% on the year from August, which would take its year-to-date growth to 8.3% over the same period. Adjusting for the base effects, our forecasts imply an annualized two-year-on-two-year fixed asset investment growth declining to 2.1% in August from 2.8% in July. Essentially, weaker property investment (due to a mainly a further decline in land sales as a result of these property-tightening measures) should more than offset a likely rebound in manufacturing and infrastructure investment.

Retail sales growth may also slow down to a positive 2.5% on the year—that’s down from 8.5% in July—mainly weighed on by the stringent social distancing measures amid the Delta variant outbreak and also less favorable base effects. Our forecasts imply that after adjusting for those base effects, the two-year-on-two-year annualized growth of retail sales will likely drop to 1.5% in August, from 3.6% in July. According to the National Health Commission, the latest wave of COVID-19 that started in Nanjing in late July marked the most widespread COVID-19 wave in China since the initial outbreak in Wuhan. High-frequency data related to auto sales, air flights, and movie box office revenues showed a broadly based weakening in August from July.

In India, we expect CPI inflation to moderate marginally to 5.5% in August, compared to 5.6% in July. That's primarily driven by lower food inflation, which we expect will be reflected in low prices of cereals, fruits, and protein items. Vegetable prices in India are likely to continue to escalate, but the month-on-month increases are likely to be lesser than the previous couple of months we've seen, in line with seasonality. However, we expect core inflation to remain elevated at 5.8%, similar to July levels, reflecting elevated fuel and commodity prices and continued broad-based price pressures, although the lower gold prices should provide some relief. The sequential momentum of core inflation is likely to inch up to 0.4% on the month, close to the six-month average. We also expect LPG cylinder prices to be reflected in higher fuel inflation too.

In line with provisional data on merchandise trade in India, we expect export growth to ease to 45% in August, that's down from around 50% in July, and import growth to moderate as well, with the trade deficit widening to around $13.9 billion from $11 billion. However, this should reflect a drop in the sequential momentum for both exports and imports in August, and this is partly due to lower oil prices and softer demand conditions, also reflecting the worsening situation with supply chain bottlenecks.

And that, folks, is The Week Ahead.

So those are the views from us, and that's The Week Ahead. Thank you for listening in to the podcast. If you enjoyed listening to the show or want to hear more from Nomura’s economists, researchers, and investors, please like and subscribe to Nomura’s podcast on Apple, Spotify, and SoundCloud, or wherever you do get your fill of podcasts. If you're feeling generous, please do leave a review on your podcast store of choice—preferably a nice one! And please do log on to nomuraconnects.com to keep up to date and keep on listening. Thanks, goodbye for now, and stay safe.

Narrator: In a complex and unpredictable world, where a sunset in one market means a sunrise and another, one investment bank always looks beyond the horizon to help our clients release the potential of tomorrow, today. Nomura: Connecting Markets, East & West.

Global Markets Research Economic Data and Events Calendar クリックして拡大

今週のポイント

米国

  • ワクチン接種と経済活動再開、財政刺激が成長を押し上げているが、2022~23年には成長が顕著に減速しよう。
  • 追加財政支援が見込まれるが、党派対立と民主党の議会でのリードが僅かなため、政策余地は制約されよう。
  • 連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)は11月に資産購入縮小を発表し、会合ごとに米国債100億ドル、住宅ローン担保証券50億ドルの減額へ。
  • 連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)は23年4-6月期に利上げを開始、半年に1回のペースで追加利上げ、最終的に2.00~2.25%となろう。
  • 失業率は21年末に4.3%、23年末に3.4%に低下するとみるが、労働市場の幅広い回復が重視されよう。
  • 経済活動再開とサプライチェーンの寸断から目先のインフレ率は押し上げられようが、22年には減速が見込まれる。
  • 顕著なリスクとして、新型コロナウイルスの変異株拡大と財政政策の上振れ・下振れ双方のリスク、インフレ期待上昇が挙げられる。

欧州

  • ユーロ圏:実質GDPがコロナ禍前の水準を回復するのは21年10-12月期と予想するが、回復のペースは各国マチマチとなろう。
  • ユーロ圏:前年同期の低水準や指数構成変更、世界的な物価上昇圧力を受け21年末のインフレ率は政策目標を大幅に上回ろう。
  • ユーロ圏:欧州中央銀行はパンデミック対応緊急資産購入(PEPP)の緩やかな縮小を発表し、12月に資産購入プログラム(APP)の購入ペース引き上げと一時的な購入枠拡大を発表しよう。
  • 英国:移動量は大幅回復しており、コロナ禍前のGDP水準回復が野村予想の22年4-6月期よりも早まるリスクがある。
  • 英国:インフレが加速しており、野村は21年10-12月期の予想を前年比+4.0%に引き上げたが、22年末には政策目標に戻ろう。
  • 英国:23年2月(0.15%ポイント)、同8月(0.25%ポイント)の利上げと、23年秋の購入資産縮小開始を予想。

日本

  • ワクチン普及とともに経済成長は加速すると予想するが、短期的には感染再拡大の影響から経済活動の停滞が続こう。
  • 感染症の影響長期化による物価下押しは継続するが、国際商品市況高騰の影響からインフレ率は緩やかに上昇。
  • 菅首相退陣後も、政府の経済政策のみならず日本銀行の金融政策についても大きな変化はないと予想する。
  • 米中対立の激化や金融市場のリスク回避加速を背景とした円高再燃がリスク要因。

アジア(日本を除く)

  • アジアの成長は険しい道のりながら回復に向かっており、輸出と内需双方に回復のすそ野が広まろう。
  • アジア主要10ヶ国・地域のうち6つが7-9月期までにワクチン接種がもたらす「転換点」に達し、消費が出遅れを取り戻そう。
  • 北東アジア(中国・台湾・韓国)はハイテクセクターが拡大局面に入る中、半導体不足の恩恵を受けるとみられ、コロナ禍対応の奏功により消費も下支えされよう。
  • 東南アジア(シンガポール除く)/インドでは感染者数の高止まりと政府の規制強化を受けて、目先内需が軟調に推移しよう。
  • シンガポールと台湾が地域の成長の優等生となる一方、タイとフィリピンは出遅れよう。
  • インフレの牽引要因は供給側から需要側(プッシュ要因)にシフトするとみられるが、概ね中銀の政策目標範囲に収まろう。
  • 今年は政策のかい離が見込まれ、韓国とインドで利上げが、タイで利下げが見込まれるが他は据え置きへ。
  • 中国:年後半は成長の大幅な減速が見込まれ、政府は、的を絞った引き締めと全体的な緩和を併用して対処しよう。
  • 韓国:緩やかな景気回復が続く中、韓国銀行(中央銀行)は8月の利上げ後、11月に次の利上げを実施すると予想。
  • インド:インフレの高止まりに加えて、中期的な回復基調から、21年10-12月期以降の政策正常化を引き続き予想。
  • インドネシア:直近のコロナ感染拡大はGDPと財政赤字に大きく影響し、債務貨幣化のリスクがさらに強まろう。
  • 豪州:感染第3波により成長回復が中断されたが、10-12月期には徐々に経済活動が再開し、回復軌道に戻ろう

グローバル・エコノミック・ウィークリー 2021/9/13 より

著者

  • 雨宮 愛知

    米国 エコノミスト

  • ジョージ・バックリー

    欧州 チーフエコノミスト

  • ティン・ルー

    中国 チーフエコノミスト

  • 美和 卓

    野村證券 チーフエコノミスト

  • ロブ・スバラマン

    グローバル マクロ リサーチ ヘッド

  • ソナル・バルマ

    インド・AEJチーフエコノミスト

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