The Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability will likely push the economy into a downturn
With rapidly slowing growth momentum and a Fed committed to restoring price stability, we believe a mild recession starting in Q4 2022 is now more likely than not. Financial conditions are likely to tighten further, consumers are experiencing a significant negative sentiment shock, energy and food supply disruptions have worsened and the outlook for foreign growth has deteriorated. All these factors will likely contribute to the expected downturn.
Senior US Economist
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