Focused Thinking

Volatility

From hard policies to trade routes, the causes and effects of volatility are connected across the planet. To recognise the opportunities and risks, know how to pick the triggers to watch from the grey swans.

Central Banks

What's on the Horizon for the Global Economy?

Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2026 by region.

3 min read | June 2026

Economics

Asia's Hormuz Exposure Scorecard

The region is at the epicenter of the energy security shock and faces potential stagflation, if disruptions persist beyond a month

4 min read | March 2026

Economics

US-China Trade Deal Only Slightly Improves US Economic Outlook

While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.

3 min read | May 2025

Economics

US: Forecasting the Tariff Impact on Inflation

The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.

4 min read | May 2025

Economics

Liberation Day Tariff Policy Triggers Economic Forecast Revisions

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term

3 min read | April 2025