Focused thinking: 3 min video
Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we ... [Read more]
December 2018
Focused thinking: 7 min video
Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino ... [Read more]
November 2018
Focused thinking: 2 min video
As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region ... [Read more]
Focused thinking: 3 min read
Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on ... [Read more]
There is an undeniable correlation between geopolitics, market sentiment and the macro trading environment. In ... [Read more]
February 2019
Five market moving events that should be on your radar
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Focused thinking: 9 min podcast
The Dollar in 2019: Bullish or Bearish?
September 2018
With the global economic slowdown, what are the risks and are there reasons to be quietly cautious?
Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time ... [Read more]
Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises
Focused thinking: 2 min read
From the 1950s to the 1990s Japan often found itself in disagreement with the US ... [Read more]
August 2018
What can we learn from the history of trade wars?
Focused thinking: 4 min read
The movie WarGames helped introduce the DEFCON system to the public back in 1983 (including ... [Read more]
July 2018
DEFCON 4: Financial Risks are Rising. Vigilance Should, Too
June 2018
Why market volatility is inevitable
Focused thinking: 1 min read
Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm ... [Read more]
What are the five key drivers for Latin America FX in H2 2018?
As banks savor the possibility of deregulation, many are anticipating a ramp up in new ... [Read more]
May 2018
Unintended Consequences: How Deregulation Could Lead to Credit Risk
Focused thinking: 8 min podcast
Global Emerging Markets Podcast Series
Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices ... [Read more]
Brazil: What is currently priced in? (Presidential election edition)
April 2018
What geopolitical risks are driving global emerging markets?