Economics
Tail Risks Clipped but We Stay Cautious on Global Economic Outlook
Expect rate cuts across the globe for the rest of 2025
3 min read | May 2025
Focused Thinking
Focused Thinking
Economics
Expect rate cuts across the globe for the rest of 2025
3 min read | May 2025
Japan in focus
The year 2025 could be a turning point for long-term economic change.
3 min read | May 2025
Economics
Evidence suggests US import frontloading is benefitting many Asian economies, especially in electronics, but soft data are signaling weakness ahead
2 min read | May 2025
Economics
While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.
3 min read | May 2025
Economics
The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.
4 min read | May 2025
Economics
The flood of imports from China was already impacting economies before Trump 2.0
4 min read | April 2025
Economics
Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world
5 min read | April 2025
Economics
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term
3 min read | April 2025
Economics
Disinflation is underway in Asia, with inflation falling within central bank targets across most countries.
3 min read | March 2025
Economics
The private credit market is rapidly evolving, with new players, products and rules set to help it reach a projected $2.64tn by 2029.
3 min read | March 2025
Economics
The US clampdown on using third countries to circumvent tariffs on China could reshape global supply chains
4 min read | March 2025
Central Banks
US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.
4 min read | February 2025
Economics
In an interconnected world, the impact from higher US tariffs can sometimes ricochet beyond the target country
5 min read | February 2025
Economics
As investors weigh up whether US equities can defy gravity for another year, buying quality and selling junk stocks offers a hedge in the event of a downturn.
3 min read | February 2025