Focused Thinking
Nomura’s economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon for the year ahead around the globe.
Annual Outlook
Various major drags on Europe’s economies might explain weak expectations for trend growth including de-globalisation, climate change, demographics, and in the UK’s case, Brexit. But could German fiscal loosening save the day? And are we finally seeing the back of sticky inflation?
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The world's second-largest economy stands at a pivotal juncture as it prepares to implement its 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists discuss their views on the Japan economy in the year to come
4 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.
9 min read | January 2025
Annual Outlook
The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy
8 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the market returns to normal
4 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Turbulence ahead for Asia from Trumponomics, slowing exports and a weaker China
4 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.
8 min read | January 2024
Annual Outlook
We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon after a relatively strong year.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
This is the final part of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore the year ahead for policy and regulation.
15 min video | January 2023
Annual Outlook
This is the first of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore what this year has in store for green deals.
29 min video | January 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators
12 min read | January 2023