Focused Thinking
Nomura’s economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon for the year ahead around the globe.
Annual Outlook
We expect above-trend growth, a fall in the unemployment rate and sticky inflation, but a politicized Fed still cuts twice
9 min read | January 2026
Annual Outlook
Various major drags on Europe’s economies might explain weak expectations for trend growth including de-globalisation, climate change, demographics, and in the UK’s case, Brexit. But could German fiscal loosening save the day?
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The world's second-largest economy stands at a pivotal juncture as it prepares to implement its 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists discuss their views on the Japan economy in the year to come
4 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.
9 min read | January 2025
Annual Outlook
The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy
8 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the market returns to normal
4 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Turbulence ahead for Asia from Trumponomics, slowing exports and a weaker China
4 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.
8 min read | January 2024
Annual Outlook
We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon after a relatively strong year.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
This is the final part of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore the year ahead for policy and regulation.
15 min video | January 2023
Annual Outlook
This is the first of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore what this year has in store for green deals.
29 min video | January 2023