Focused Thinking
Central Banks
The Fed's proposed trimmed-mean inflation metric may understate price pressures, risking policy errors and aggressive hikes later
4 min read | June 2026
Central Banks
Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2026 by region.
3 min read | June 2026
Central Banks
The impact of the energy shock on inflation and growth varies across Asian economies; differentiation in central banks’ responses is crucial
4 min read | April 2026
Central Banks
After the energy shock from the Iran war, the fundamental differences between the euro area and UK economies today may justify different central bank responses
4 min read | April 2026
Central Banks
Even modest repatriation of USD assets could significantly appreciate the value of their currencies and erode export competitiveness
4 min read | April 2026
Central Banks
Increasing energy prices weigh on Europe and Asia, while the US remains largely insulated; energy exporters outside of the Middle East benefit from elevated prices
4 min read | March 2026
Central Banks
We forecast ECB rates will remain unchanged through 2027 as inflation stays near target. However, tight labor markets and above-potential growth in 2028 risk pushing inflation higher, likely requiring at least two rate hikes to restore price stability.
4 min read | February 2026
Central Banks
A consumption tax moratorium and a weak yen might encourage the BOJ to raise interest rates sooner and more often
3 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.
4 min read | February 2025
Central Banks
We have seen an overall slowdown in long-term GDP growth across different global economies in the last 15-20 years and, in our long-term view, this trajectory will continue.
6 min read | September 2024
Central Banks
We believe Germany is in recession and structural factors such as manufacturing competition from China and an ageing and shrinking workforce will lead to a period of stagnation.
4 min read | September 2024
Central Banks
It is becoming more difficult to reduce the fiscal deficit, as government debt continues to climb and efforts to increase revenue through taxes remain stagnant.
5 min read | July 2024
Central Banks
Emerging market buyers have wrested control of the gold market from the West, said Mr. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist, World Gold Council.
4 min read | July 2024
Central Banks
BOJ makes concessions for the uncertainty around inflation; Apr–Jun 2024 looks like a likely time for an end to YCC and NIRP
5 min read | August 2023