Focused Thinking
Central Banks
Increasing energy prices weigh on Europe and Asia, while the US remains largely insulated; energy exporters outside of the Middle East benefit from elevated prices
4 min read | March 2026
Central Banks
We forecast ECB rates will remain unchanged through 2027 as inflation stays near target. However, tight labor markets and above-potential growth in 2028 risk pushing inflation higher, likely requiring at least two rate hikes to restore price stability.
4 min read | February 2026
Central Banks
A consumption tax moratorium and a weak yen might encourage the BOJ to raise interest rates sooner and more often
3 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2026 by region.
3 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.
4 min read | February 2025
Central Banks
We have seen an overall slowdown in long-term GDP growth across different global economies in the last 15-20 years and, in our long-term view, this trajectory will continue.
6 min read | September 2024
Central Banks
We believe Germany is in recession and structural factors such as manufacturing competition from China and an ageing and shrinking workforce will lead to a period of stagnation.
4 min read | September 2024
Central Banks
It is becoming more difficult to reduce the fiscal deficit, as government debt continues to climb and efforts to increase revenue through taxes remain stagnant.
5 min read | July 2024
Central Banks
Emerging market buyers have wrested control of the gold market from the West, said Mr. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist, World Gold Council.
4 min read | July 2024
Central Banks
BOJ makes concessions for the uncertainty around inflation; Apr–Jun 2024 looks like a likely time for an end to YCC and NIRP
5 min read | August 2023
Central Banks
In this episode of our MacroBrew fireside podcast series, we talk with George Moran from the European Economics team about Norway and Sweden with their currencies trading near multi-year lows.
3 min read | May 2023
Central Banks
In this MacroBrew fireside, we talk with Charnon Boonnuch from the Asia Economics team about Thailand after its recent election results.
26 min video | May 2023
Central Banks
Four highlights of the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting; Nomura’s main scenario pictures a YCC revision in or after June 2023 MPM
3 min read | May 2023
Central Banks
In this MacroBrew fireside, we discuss whether the ECB will really defy market pricing and look to raise rates above 4% this year, and what risks we should watch out for in Europe in 2023.
18 min video | April 2023