Annual Outlook
Five Ways Middle East Tensions Could Affect Japan’s Economy
We revise our outlook for FY2026 and FY2027 considering the current climate of uncertainty
4 min read | June 2026
Focused Thinking
Focused Thinking
Annual Outlook
We revise our outlook for FY2026 and FY2027 considering the current climate of uncertainty
4 min read | June 2026
Economics
Canada will likely secure an agreement with the US on the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) but under a more conditional framework that institutionalizes volatility and weighs on growth
4 min read | May 2026
Central Banks
The impact of the energy shock on inflation and growth varies across Asian economies; differentiation in central banks’ responses is crucial
4 min read | April 2026
Central Banks
After the energy shock from the Iran war, the fundamental differences between the euro area and UK economies today may justify different central bank responses
4 min read | April 2026
Economics
We expect US tariff policy to continue its current de-escalatory trajectory, despite the possibility of episodic flare-ups
5 min read | March 2026
Central Banks
Increasing energy prices weigh on Europe and Asia, while the US remains largely insulated; energy exporters outside of the Middle East benefit from elevated prices
4 min read | March 2026
Economics
The region is at the epicenter of the energy security shock and faces potential stagflation, if disruptions persist beyond a month
4 min read | March 2026
Economics
Thailand, India, Korea and the Philippines are the most vulnerable to higher oil prices, due to their high import dependence, while Malaysia would be a relative beneficiary as an energy exporter
5 min read | March 2026
Economics
The Trump administration has announced a range of measures aimed at addressing affordability in the run up to this year’s midterm elections including housing, healthcare and consumer finances. In our view, these initiatives are unlikely to materially alter the near-term inflation outlook
6 min read | January 2026
Economics
A New Frontier in US-China Tensions
2 min read | June 2025
Economics
While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.
3 min read | May 2025
Economics
The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.
4 min read | May 2025
Economics
Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world
5 min read | April 2025
Economics
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term
3 min read | April 2025