Focused Thinking

Articles

Central Banks

ECB Rate Hikes: Not If, But When

We forecast ECB rates will remain unchanged through 2027 as inflation stays near target. However, tight labor markets and above-potential growth in 2028 risk pushing inflation higher, likely requiring at least two rate hikes to restore price stability.

4 min read | February 2026

Economics

Addressing the US Affordability Crisis – Signal Versus Reality

The Trump administration has announced a range of measures aimed at addressing affordability in the run up to this year’s midterm elections including housing, healthcare and consumer finances. In our view, these initiatives are unlikely to materially alter the near-term inflation outlook

6 min read | January 2026

Central Banks

What's on the Horizon for the Global Economy?

Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2026 by region.

3 min read | January 2026

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2026 Outlook: Fiscal’s Time to Shine

Various major drags on Europe’s economies might explain weak expectations for trend growth including de-globalisation, climate change, demographics, and in the UK’s case, Brexit. But could German fiscal loosening save the day?

3 min read | December 2025

Annual Outlook

China Economic Outlook

The world's second-largest economy stands at a pivotal juncture as it prepares to implement its 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026

3 min read | December 2025

Annual Outlook

Japan Macro Outlook 2026

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists discuss their views on the Japan economy in the year to come

4 min read | December 2025