Focused Thinking
Economics
The original “China shock” was a reference to the economic disruptions in the West caused by the surge in imports from China
2 min read | April 2026
Economics
The first survey since the Iran conflict started shows input cost pressures, margin compression and longer supplier delivery times, with EM Asia facing a sharper impact
2 min read | April 2026
Central Banks
Even modest repatriation of USD assets could significantly appreciate the value of their currencies and erode export competitiveness
4 min read | April 2026
Economics
We expect US tariff policy to continue its current de-escalatory trajectory, despite the possibility of episodic flare-ups
5 min read | March 2026
Central Banks
Increasing energy prices weigh on Europe and Asia, while the US remains largely insulated; energy exporters outside of the Middle East benefit from elevated prices
4 min read | March 2026
Economics
The region is at the epicenter of the energy security shock and faces potential stagflation, if disruptions persist beyond a month
4 min read | March 2026
Economics
Thailand, India, Korea and the Philippines are the most vulnerable to higher oil prices, due to their high import dependence, while Malaysia would be a relative beneficiary as an energy exporter
5 min read | March 2026
Economics
AI is estimated to have contributed approximately 2pp to Asia's GDP growth in 2025, accounting for half of total growth, primarily through trade
2 min read | February 2026
Central Banks
We forecast ECB rates will remain unchanged through 2027 as inflation stays near target. However, tight labor markets and above-potential growth in 2028 risk pushing inflation higher, likely requiring at least two rate hikes to restore price stability.
4 min read | February 2026
Economics
The deal sends a message to the US that global economies are forging deals and strategic alliances with one another as the US becomes more insular
4 min read | February 2026
Economics
The Trump administration has announced a range of measures aimed at addressing affordability in the run up to this year’s midterm elections including housing, healthcare and consumer finances. In our view, these initiatives are unlikely to materially alter the near-term inflation outlook
6 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
A consumption tax moratorium and a weak yen might encourage the BOJ to raise interest rates sooner and more often
3 min read | January 2026
Economics
Rising US capex in artificial intelligence is benefiting Asia on a broader basis than just increased chip exports
3 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2026 by region.
3 min read | January 2026