Focused Thinking
Economics
AI is estimated to have contributed approximately 2pp to Asia's GDP growth in 2025, accounting for half of total growth, primarily through trade
2 min read | February 2026
Central Banks
We forecast ECB rates will remain unchanged through 2027 as inflation stays near target. However, tight labor markets and above-potential growth in 2028 risk pushing inflation higher, likely requiring at least two rate hikes to restore price stability.
4 min read | February 2026
Economics
The deal sends a message to the US that global economies are forging deals and strategic alliances with one another as the US becomes more insular
4 min read | February 2026
Economics
The Trump administration has announced a range of measures aimed at addressing affordability in the run up to this year’s midterm elections including housing, healthcare and consumer finances. In our view, these initiatives are unlikely to materially alter the near-term inflation outlook
6 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
A consumption tax moratorium and a weak yen might encourage the BOJ to raise interest rates sooner and more often
3 min read | January 2026
Economics
Rising US capex in artificial intelligence is benefiting Asia on a broader basis than just increased chip exports
3 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2026 by region.
3 min read | January 2026
Annual Outlook
Various major drags on Europe’s economies might explain weak expectations for trend growth including de-globalisation, climate change, demographics, and in the UK’s case, Brexit. But could German fiscal loosening save the day?
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The world's second-largest economy stands at a pivotal juncture as it prepares to implement its 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists discuss their views on the Japan economy in the year to come
4 min read | December 2025
Economics
AI demand and the memory supercycle should sustain tech exports, but the outlook for non-tech demand is mixed. We see a North-South monetary policy divide across Asia.
5 min read | December 2025
Economics
Beyond the near term, the US aims to build new critical mineral supply chains, bring more economies under its economic sphere of influence, and drive Asian reforms through stealth.
3 min read | November 2025
Economics
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
1 min read | November 2025
Economics
Tariffs will soon begin to bite, impacting exports and investment, but strong demand for artificial intelligence and a memory supercycle should power a concentrated recovery
4 min read | October 2025