Nomura

Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

  • Asia - US-China tensions, Tokyo Olympics, semi-conductor cycle picking up
  • America - US-China trade talks, Democratic primaries, mixed data, expanding Fed balance sheet
  • Europe - Brexit talks, green shoots in the data, reforms in question, Italian politics a risk

2020 Q1 and Q2 events to watch

2020 Q1 and Q2 events to watch

The main events of 2020 for the US

  • 3 March: Super Tuesday US Democratic Primaries
  • Around end Q2: Fed Review of policy framework
  • April: US Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies
  • 29 Sep/15 Oct: Presidential TV debates
  • 3 November: US Presidential election

The main events of 2020 for the euro area and the UK

  • 5/6 Mar: OPEC+ to extend their output cut in March or make plans to end it?
  • 12 March: The ECB to cut interest rates by another 10bp?
  • 24 March: “The ECB and Its Watchers” conference in Frankfurt
  • 26 March & 18 June: UK FTA talks start with EU summits to be key moments.
  • 30 April: deadline for euro area countries’ budget submission to the EC
  • Likely in H2: Announcement of the results of ECB strategy review
  • Ongoing: Banking Union Reform

The main events of 2020 in Asia and Australasia

  • 4 Feb: RBA rate cut in Feb? Then later in 2020 – to start QE?
  • 12 Feb: RBNZ to cut rates in February?
  • 16 Feb: Deadline - Temporary General License for Huawei
  • 28 Feb: JPM includes CGB in its Government Bond Index over 10-months
  • 3/5 Mar: China National People’s Congress session.
  • 23 Mar: FSTE Russell interim review (WBGI).
  • 26/29 Mar: Boao Forum
  • In 2020: GPIF review could announce a new target portfolio.

For more information and insights read our full Event Risk Radar.

Contributor

  • Jordan Rochester

    FX Strategist

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