Looking into 2022 - what to expect
We are cautious on Asia’s economic outlook in 2022. The emergence of the Omicron variant has increased uncertainty, but we see Asia’s bumpy upcycle extending into H1 2022, supported by easing supply bottlenecks. However, we expect an export downturn to begin in mid-2022, reflecting three factors: first, spillover effects from a slowing China – Asia’s exports to China are equal to its total exports to the US and Europe combined; second, pent-up demand for goods from developed markets will likely fade; and third, a moderation in the tech cycle.
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Head of Global Macro Research
Chief China Economist
Chief Economist, India and Asia ex-Japan
Southeast Asia Economist
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