Focused Thinking
Nomura’s economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon for the year ahead around the globe.
Annual Outlook
Capex will likely form the basis of Japan’s economic recovery through FY2028
4 min read | September 2026
Annual Outlook
We maintain a broadly positive outlook, but we are cognizant of the large number of risks building
5 min read | August 2026
Annual Outlook
We revise our outlook for FY2026 and FY2027 considering the current climate of uncertainty
4 min read | June 2026
Annual Outlook
Japan is reaping the rewards of price, wage, and rate hikes as households through to corporates enjoy an increase in revenue
4 min read | April 2026
Annual Outlook
We expect above-trend growth, a fall in the unemployment rate and sticky inflation, but a politicized Fed still cuts twice
9 min read | January 2026
Annual Outlook
Various major drags on Europe’s economies might explain weak expectations for trend growth including de-globalisation, climate change, demographics, and in the UK’s case, Brexit. But could German fiscal loosening save the day?
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The world's second-largest economy stands at a pivotal juncture as it prepares to implement its 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists discuss their views on the Japan economy in the year to come
4 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
AI demand and the memory supercycle should sustain tech exports, but the outlook for non-tech demand is mixed. We see a North-South monetary policy divide across Asia.
5 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.
9 min read | January 2025
Annual Outlook
The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy
8 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the market returns to normal
4 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Turbulence ahead for Asia from Trumponomics, slowing exports and a weaker China
4 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.
8 min read | January 2024