- In our Week Ahead podcast we are discussing the main themes that will drive Global markets.
- Our updated calendar identifies the top events that should be on your radar this week.
- We also provide an outlook overview region by region for the rest of the year.
Our view in a nutshell
- As the government declared another state of emergency, q-o-q real GDP growth in Q1 2021 should be negative again.
- With the prolonged pandemic pushing down inflation, suspension of the GoToTravel campaign will technically increase the rate.
- We do not expect the Suga cabinet to make any significant change in economic policy and in BOJ’s monetary policy.
- The risk is renewed yen appreciation, caused by deepening US-China tensions and further risk averse moves in markets.
- The growth path is likely to be bumpy in the near term due to virus risks, but we expect a durable cyclical rebound into H2 2021.
- The distribution of vaccines, faster global growth, tech upcycle and easier financial conditions should support the growth recovery.
- As growth recovers, we expect inflation to gradually rise but remain within the central bank targets.
- Upside growth surprises are likely in China, India, Singapore and Korea, while Thailand and the Philippines may disappoint.
- We expect more rate cuts in Indonesia and Malaysia by H1 2021 but no changes elsewhere through 2021.
- China: We expect the growth recovery and Beijing’s gradual policy normalization to resume following the containment of Covid-19.
- Korea: We expect Korea’s sequential growth momentum to improve in Q1 on stronger-than-expected export growth.
- India: Economic normalization amid above-target inflation suggests rates on hold and a gradual withdrawal of excess liquidity.
- Indonesia: Rising inflation amid debt monetization and current account deficits could test monetary policy credibility.
- Australia: We expect the recovery to continue, but note the RBA is taking no chances, and anticipate QE3.0 in time.
- Democratic control in Washington means more fiscal stimulus, but partisanship and narrow majorities will likely constrain policy.
- The pandemic will weigh on short-term activity, but the vaccine outlook is positive for the medium term.
- We expect constant Fed asset purchases through 2021 before a gradual taper in 2022, but risks skew towards earlier action.
- The Fed will likely stay at the ELB at least through Q2 2023 with inflation remaining the key determinant to liftoff.
- The unemployment rate will decline more gradually from here as the pace of recovery slows relative to the post-lockdown rebound.
- COVID-19’s impact on service prices and the impact of labor market slack, particularly on rent, will weigh on core inflation.
- Notable risks include new SARS-CoV-2 variants along with both upside and downside risk around fiscal policy.
- With lockdowns still in place we see euro area GDP falling at a similar pace to Q4 in Q1, then recovering from Q2.
- While underlying inflation remains low, base effects and policy changes should raise headline inflation sharply this year.
- With GDP rebounding and inflation rising in the short term, we expect the ECB to keep policy on hold this year.
- UK lockdowns should have a smaller effect on GDP than last spring. A full recovery in GDP takes until beyond 2022.
- While pent-up demand and policy stimulus should be supportive, we expect a renewed fall in GDP in the current quarter.
- After another £150bn of QE we think the BoE is done with easing. We do not expect negative rates, but risks remain.
For more information read our weekly report here
Chief US Economist
Chief UK & Euro Area Economist
Chief China Economist
Chief Japan Economist
Head of Global Macro Research and Co-head of Global Markets Research
Chief Economist, India and Asia ex-Japan