- In our Week Ahead podcast we are discussing the main themes that will drive Global markets.
- Our updated calendar identifies the top events that should be on your radar this week.
- We also provide an outlook overview region by region for the rest of the year.
Our view in a nutshell
- We expect growth to accelerate on vaccination progress, but another pandemic surge suggests flat short-run economic activity.
- With the prolonged pandemic pushing down inflation, suspension of the GoToTravel campaign will technically increase the rate.
- We do not expect the Suga cabinet to make any significant change in economic policy and in BOJ’s monetary policy.
- The risk is renewed yen appreciation, caused by deepening US-China tensions and further risk averse moves in markets.
- Asia’s growth cycle may be bumpy, but it’s headed higher, with a greater divergence between Northeast and Southeast Asia/India.
- Northeast Asia benefits from chip shortages amid the tech super cycle, with better pandemic resilience supporting consumption.
- In Southeast Asia/India, rising infection cases and tighter government restrictions suggest softer near-term domestic demand.
- We expect China, Singapore and Taiwan to be the growth leaders in the region, while Thailand and the Philippines could lag.
- Higher inflation is likely on base effects, the end of government subsidies, higher commodity prices and a narrowing output gap.
- Policy rates will likely be left unchanged this year, but hikes are likely in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines next year
- China: We expect Beijing to stick to its “no sharp shift” commitment when normalizing its policies, despite rising inflation.
- Korea: Strong exports and consumption should buttress the growth upcycle, but the BOK is likely to leave policy rates unchanged.
- India: The second wave should slow near-term growth, but the medium-term upcycle and policy normalization from Q4 2021 are intact.
- Indonesia: Rising inflation amid debt monetization and current account deficits could test monetary policy credibility.
- Australia: The economic recovery continues; central bank guidance should turn less dovish in early July.
- Democratic control in Washington means more fiscal stimulus, but partisanship and narrow majorities will likely constrain policy.
- The pandemic’s impact on activity has started to wane as vaccinations and economic re-opening accelerate.
- We expect constant Fed asset purchases through 2021 before a gradual taper in 2022.
- The Fed will likely stay at the ELB at least through Q2 2023 with inflation remaining the key determinant to liftoff.
- The unemployment rate will decline more gradually from here as the pace of recovery slows relative to the post-lockdown rebound.
- Economic reopening and supply chain disruptions will likely push up near-term inflation, but we expect deceleration in 2022.
- Notable risks include new SARS-CoV-2 variants along with both upside and downside risk around fiscal policy.
- With lockdowns still in place we see euro area GDP falling at a similar pace to Q4 in Q1, then recovering from Q2.
- While underlying inflation remains low, base effects and policy changes should raise headline inflation sharply this year.
- With GDP rebounding and inflation rising in the short term, we expect the ECB to keep policy on hold this year.
- Recent UK lockdowns had less of an effect on output and are slowly being lifted. A full recovery takes until beyond 2022.
- Following a fall in GDP in Q1, we expect pent-up demand and policy stimulus to be supportive as restrictions are eased.
- After another £150bn of QE we think the BoE is done with easing. We do not expect negative rates, but risks remain.
For more information read our weekly report here
Head of Global Macro Research and Co-head of Global Markets Research
Chief US Economist
Chief UK & Euro Area Economist
Chief China Economist
Chief Japan Economist
Chief Economist, India and Asia ex-Japan