- Our updated calendar identifies the top events that should be on your radar this week.
- We also provide an outlook overview region by region for the rest of the year.
- In our episode of the week ahead podcast we are looking at the top three market moving themes that should be on your radar.
Our view in a nutshell
- The real economy’s recovery will be gradual, though pent-up demand may push up apparent real growth rates above potential.
- We expect core CPI inflation to continue to decelerate and to plunge below -1.0% y-o-y through Q1 2021 led by lower oil prices.
- We do not expect the Suga cabinet to make any significant change in economic policy and in the BOJ’s monetary policy.
- The risk is renewed yen appreciation, caused by deepening US-China tensions and further risk averse moves in markets.
- GDP growth should improve in H2 2020, from Q2 lows, but the pace of recovery will differ among economies.
- We expect Northeast Asia to outperform Southeast Asia and India, due to COVID-19 containment and a resilient tech cycle.
- Emerging Asia (India, Indonesia, the Philippines) remains vulnerable amid rising cases and due to limited policy support.
- Beyond pent-up demand, fragilities remain due to the knock-on effects on the labour market, SMEs and on bank asset quality.
- We expect further rate cuts in China, Malaysia, the Philippines and India, while rates are likely to remain on hold elsewhere.
- China: We expect sequential growth momentum to weaken in H2 and believe Beijing has shifted to a “wait and see” policy approach.
- Korea: Growth may pick up in Q3 but remain subdued due to weak global demand and growing concern over a second virus wave.
- India: COVID-19 amid a weak financial sector to trigger a contraction in 2020 and easy policies – monetary, fiscal and liquidity
- Indonesia: Slow COVID-19 containment implies a larger growth shock, higher fiscal risks and more balance-of-payment pressure.
- Australia: We see a bumpy path ahead, with more fiscal and monetary accommodation likely.
- Base effects will drive Q3 2020 real GDP higher but monthly data suggest the recovery has entered a slower phase.
- As COVID-19 weighs on activity, we expect a more gradual recovery through H1 2021 before an acceleration in H2.
- The Fed will likely stay at the ELB through 2022, ensure access to credit and maintain a steady pace of asset purchases.
- The adoption of flexible average inflation targeting (AIT) should reinforce the Fed’s “lower for longer” outlook.
- The unemployment rate will decline gradually, reaching 6% by end-2021 and 5% by end-2022, as the labor market remains weak.
- Core inflation will likely be weighed down by COVID-19’s impact on service prices and excess labor market slack.
- Notable risks include another surge in new COVID-19 cases, US-China tensions and partisan disputes over fiscal policy.
- The euro area recovery is ongoing, but we think it will fall short of a “full-V” especially with renewed lockdowns.
- The combination of a protracted demand shock and energy prices below pre-pandemic levels suggest a disinflationary effect.
- We have recently changed our view to an expansion of the PEPP (by between €250bn and €500bn) in March 2021.
- In April UK GDP had fallen 25%. July was still 12.5% below peak , and a full recovery takes until beyond our 2022 horizon.
- While pent-up demand and policy stimulus should be supportive, we expect the UK’s recovery to look like a truncated-V.
- We now expect more QE (£100bn) from the BoE in November. We do not expect negative rates but the risks have risen.
- The risk of a Brexit cliff edge at the end of 2020 has risen, which could mean lower growth, higher inflation and looser policy.
For more information read our weekly report here
Chief US Economist
Chief UK & Euro Area Economist
Chief China Economist
Chief Japan Economist
Head of Global Macro Research and Co-head of Global Markets Research
Chief Economist, India and Asia ex-Japan