- In a global economy starved of yield, the UK remains attractive
- After Brexit, we could see a resumption in investment within and towards the UK
- Asian and Japanese investors still view the UK as a lucrative investment option
"If you get a no-deal (Brexit) then you're looking at a much, much weaker growth picture. The Bank of England, for example, thinks we could be seeing 8% off GDP."
Nomura has calculated that since the Brexit Referendum there has been about a 3% drop in GDP, because consumer spending and business investment have decreased.
The market assigns a higher probability to a hard Brexit than we do. We are aware of it as a possibility, but deem parliament’s ability to find a majority against it to be a powerful force. As a result of this avoidance, there will be a restoration in investment within the UK, and towards the UK. In the meantime, some of the surveys have weakened but consumer confidence is not that much different from its long-run average, people have jobs wages are growing, which are all quite encouraging signs for the UK.
"Some of the surveys have weakened but consumer confidence is not that different from its long-run average. People have jobs, wages are growing, i think all that is quite encouraging for the economy."
Asian and Japanese demands and interests remain strong, especially for UK corporate bonds; this is because the UK has a lot of influential companies that have a lot of exposure to not only UK economies but global markets.
Another reason is that when it comes to the level of interest rates in the UK whether it’s from a corporate bond, or government bond interest rates are higher than what you see in the rest of Europe. So in a world where people are starved of yield the UK remains attractive. The UK also has very deep and large financial markets opening up investors to any type of financial risk.
For more information read Growth in the shadow of Brexit
Chief UK & Euro Area Economist
Head of FX Strategy, Japan