Focused Thinking
Economics
The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.
4 min read | May 2025
Economics
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
1 min read | May 2025
Economics
The flood of imports from China was already impacting economies before Trump 2.0
4 min read | April 2025
Economics
Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world
5 min read | April 2025
Economics
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term
3 min read | April 2025
Economics
The private credit market is rapidly evolving, with new players, products and rules set to help it reach a projected $2.64tn by 2029.
3 min read | March 2025
Central Banks
US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.
4 min read | February 2025
Economics
As investors weigh up whether US equities can defy gravity for another year, buying quality and selling junk stocks offers a hedge in the event of a downturn.
3 min read | February 2025
Annual Outlook
The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.
9 min read | January 2025
Economics
The result of the 2024 US presidential election was not a win for Trump, but rather a loss for America’s elite, according to Richard Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute
3 min read | December 2024
Rates
Regulatory drivers combined with higher rates are reshaping a corner of the derivatives market
4 min read | December 2024
Economics
The perceived safety of US dollar assets could be marred by Trump’s populist policies in his second presidency.
5 min read | November 2024
Economics
Regulatory clarifications have opened-up the market for bond buybacks, allowing financial firms to proactively manage upcoming refinancing of regulatory capital.
3 min read | November 2024
Economics
Interest rate rises triggering opposite effects in the euro versus the dollar volatility market have created new investment opportunities.
3 min read | October 2024