Focused thinking: 2 min read
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on ... [Read more]
September 2019
Nearing an inflection point: Preparing for a change in global growth velocity
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Focused thinking: 4 min read
With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new ... [Read more]
Is the US on the verge of a recession?
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have ... [Read more]
July 2019
Are the major central banks trapped?
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising ... [Read more]
Global midyear economic outlook 2019
Focused thinking: 3 min podcast
Damocles update: Who is at risk?
The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy. ... [Read more]
June 2019
US-China trade diversion: Who benefits?
Focused thinking: 2 min video
March 2019
Ten years after the financial crisis: a more stable financial system with new risks
Focused thinking: 5 min read
From its inception a decade ago, blockchain is now one of the most disruptive technologies ... [Read more]
Demystifying blockchain technology: what you need to know
Focused thinking: 7 min video
November 2018
US-Sino trade friction: not all a lose-lose outcome for Asia
Focused thinking: 3 min read
Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time ... [Read more]
September 2018
Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises
From the 1950s to the 1990s Japan often found itself in disagreement with the US ... [Read more]
August 2018
What can we learn from the history of trade wars?
The movie WarGames helped introduce the DEFCON system to the public back in 1983 (including ... [Read more]
July 2018
DEFCON 4: Financial Risks are Rising. Vigilance Should, Too