Focused Thinking
Volatility
We update and expand the scope of our analysis for the impact for global automakers, and the intensity of the fallout from a hard Brexit.
2 min read | October 2019
Economics
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
Economics
With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?
4 min read | September 2019
Central Banks
Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?
3 min read | July 2019
Central Banks
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.
2 min read | July 2019
Central Banks
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
5 min read | July 2019
Economics
Our main scenario is that recession and additional policy response will be avoided
3 min read | June 2019
Volatility
Apart from Brexit, US-China trade talks, and the potential for Fed cuts, one of the big themes of 2019 thus far has been the surprising state of market volatility.
0 min video | April 2019
Economics
While household debt outstrips incomes across the country, is the UK unusual among its peers?
2 min read | April 2019
Economics
Is good economics also good politics? It could be argued that the experience of the past two decades suggests an inverted-U (a frown) relationship between the degree of populism and the electoral success.
2 min read | March 2019
Emerging Markets
ASEAN gross transaction value of mobile payments is expected to rise to USD109bn in next 10 years.
2 min read | February 2019
Central Banks
Out of the limited number of options available, what method can the BOJ use?
2 min read | February 2019
Central Banks
Many are wondering whether Australia’s luck is running out, amid slower global and regional growth, tightening financial conditions and falling local house prices.
2 min read | January 2019
Central Banks
The recovery in Japan's economic activity is still rolling on, but the growth momentum is likely to weaken
2 min read | January 2019