Economics | 0 min read | May 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect core PCE accelerated in July, while consumer sentiment deteriorated modestly.
  • We expect a 25bp cut in September. Inflation risks are skewed higher, but with core PCE tracking the Fed’s 3.1% ye forecast, we expect easing in line with the June dot plot.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Chair Powell was dovish in his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, highlighting downside risks to labor markets.
  • He stated that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance, supporting our call of a resumption of rate cuts at the September meeting.
  • We expect core PCE accelerated only modestly in July, driven by non-market service prices, which Fed officials have often downplayed.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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