Economics | 1 min read | May 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • The FOMC will likely continue to emphasize a patient approach to rate cuts at their June meeting.
  • Increased downside risks to growth and a more front-loaded inflation shock are likely to lead the Fed to deliver three consecutive cuts from December 2025 through March 2026.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Inflation data were benign this week, with no sign of broad price pressure from tariffs.
  • Our tracking estimate for May core PCE fell to 0.169% m-o-m, which would bring the 3m annualized pace down to 1.5%.
  • The FOMC meeting next week is likely to see the 2025 median rate expectation rise 25bp to 4.125%.
  • Recent data have been dovish, but escalation in the trade conflict and rising geopolitical risks since March are likely to keep officials focused on inflation risks.
  • Hard data on spending and activity likely continued to slow in May. We forecast a 0.9% m-o-m decline for real retail sales.

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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