Economics | 1 min read | May 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect the FOMC will cut rates 25bp at the October meeting.
  • We expect two 25bp cuts in October and December. Less vigilance on inflation risk and a likely change in Fed leadership are likely to lead to three quarterly cuts in 2026.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Core CPI for September slowed to 0.227% m-o-m, below consensus and our expectations. Inflation fell sharply for rent-related components, but we expect this weakness to be short-lived. Core goods continue to show signs of tariff price pressure, and supercore services inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
  • The White House has announced that they do not expect an October CPI release due to the government shutdown. Data collection was likely difficult, and the BLS might decide to interpolate October and November inflation based on two-month price changes when it resumes data collection for the November CPI.
  • We expect a 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, with just one dovish dissent from Governor Miran. Recent signs of funding pressure will likely accelerate the timeline for ending balance-sheet rundown. We expect an announcement ending QT at this meeting.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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