US Economic Weekly Update
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
- Headline job gains likely cooled in April
- Increased downside risks to growth and a more front-loaded inflation shock are likely to lead the Fed delivering three consecutive cuts from December 2025 through March 2026.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- The administration reported progress on bilateral trade negotiations and floated lowering tariffs on China.
- Fedspeak continued to emphasize a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty around tariffs. Governor Waller remained an outlier, reiterating tariffs as a one-time price shock.
- We expect labor data remained resilient and forecast job gains of 160k, while the unemployment rate likely remained unchanged at 4.2%.
- Q1 GDP growth likely moderated to 0.5% q-o-q ar from 2.4% in Q4 2024, driven by a slowdown in personal consumption and surge in imports.
- We expect core PCE inflation decelerated sharply to 0.043% m-o-m in March.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Contributor
David Seif
Chief Economist for Developed Markets
Aichi Amemiya
Senior US Economist
Jeremy Schwartz
Senior US Economist
Ruchir Sharma
US Economist
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