Economics | 1 min read | May 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect the FOMC to resume easing next week amid slowing labor markets.
  • We expect two 25bp cuts in September and December. Despite elevated inflation risks, growing downside risks to labor markets are likely to lead to “insurance” cuts.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Core CPI came in close to our expectation for August, accelerating to 0.346% m-o-m. Details for core PCE were weaker though, pushing our tracking estimate down significantly to 0.20% m-o-m.
  • Despite the dovish revision to PCE, August data suggest broadening price pressure from tariffs as well as sticky elevated inflation in core services.
  • We expect the FOMC to cut rates 25bp at their September meeting. The economic projections, dot plot, and press conference will likely emphasize that this is an “insurance cut,” with the pace of easing likely to remain gradual.
  • The median 2025 dot will likely remain unchanged, signaling just two cuts this year.
  • Hard data next week are likely to show lackluster growth. Retail sales likely cooled in August after Amazon Prime Day and competing sales drove a pickup in July.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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