Economics | 1 min read | November 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect nonfarm payrolls slowed in February, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged.
  • We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts under Chair Powell. Less vigilance on inflation risk under new Fed leadership will likely to lead to cuts in June and September 2026.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • We expect job gains slowed modestly in February to 85k, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. In our view, the labor market remains resilient. Signs of stress from late last year appear to be easing, and employment growth is gradually gaining momentum.
  • PCE-relevant components of the January PPI were slightly stronger than our forecast. We have raised our January core PCE tracking estimate to 0.441% m-o-m, up 3bp from our pre-PPI forecast.
  • Cyclical data next week will likely show some moderation, partly due to inclement winter weather in January. In our view, this is likely just a pause in the broader acceleration that began last year.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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