Economics | 1 min read | November 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • The data which are scheduled for release next week will likely show the economy’s resilience. Excluding the volatile transportation equipment component, we expect durable goods orders to have continued to rise at a decent pace of 0.6% m-o-m in May, reflecting the positive impact from the AI investment boom
  • We expect the Fed to stay on hold indefinitely due to diminished political pressure, elevated inflation, and hawkish Fedspeak.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • The FOMC kept rates on hold at their June meeting. The dot plot and economic projections were hawkish, while Chair Warsh’s press conference signaled his dovish tilt. The risk of rate hikes has increased, but we continue to expect the Fed will remain on hold through the end of 2027.
  • Warsh announced the creation of five new task forces to revamp the Fed, focusing on communication, data measurement, balance sheet policy, productivity, and inflation frameworks. He indicated that he will likely announce personnel in the next few weeks, with task force recommendations targeted for year-end.
  • Incorporating CPI, PPI, and import prices, we expect core PCE inflation accelerated by 0.376% m-o-m in May. This translates into y-o-y core PCE inflation of 3.457%.
  • The US and Iran have announced a preliminary agreement to end the war, during which negotiations are expected to continue on unresolved issues, including sanctions relief and the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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