Economics | 1 min read | November 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect Q3 GDP growth remained strong, while consumer confidence likely increased in December.
  • We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts in January 2026. Less vigilance on inflation risk under new Fed leadership will likely to lead to cuts in June and September 2026.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • The October and November employment reports were positive on net, with signs of private payrolls rebounding.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new cycle high, but was largely driven by noise, likely overstating labor market weakness.
  • Technical factors weighed on inflation data, with core CPI rising just 0.08% per month on average in October and November, which mechanically lowered our core PCE forecast. However, we expect some positive payback in December, January, and April.
  • Control retail sales rebounded in October, and housing data also improved. We expect real GDP, scheduled for release next week, grew 2.9% q-o-q ar in Q3, driven by a pickup in personal consumption
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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