Economics | 1 min read | November 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect nonfarm payrolls slowed in February, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged.
  • We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts under Chair Powell. Less vigilance on inflation risk under new Fed leadership will likely to lead to cuts in June and September 2026.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • The Iran War shows few signs of abating, with the Trump administration indicating attacks will escalate, while Iranian leadership continues to threaten energy transportation.
  • Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up modestly, largely transporting Iranian crude exports. The IEA has pledged a joint oil reserve release of 400mn barrels, including 172mn from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
  • We expect the FOMC will keep rates on hold at their March meeting, signaling a “wait-and-see” approach to future easing.
  • Several officials are likely to raise their near-term rate projections, but we expect the median dots to remain unchanged, reflecting one 25bp cut per year in 2026 and 2027.
  • February core CPI was close to our expectation, but details of the report suggest PCE inflation will likely remain elevated for the third consecutive month. January PCE came in below our expectation, largely due to an ad hoc methodology change from the BEA.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

This content has been prepared by Nomura solely for information purposes, and is not an offer to buy or sell or provide (as the case may be) or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell or enter into any agreement with respect to any security, product, service (including but not limited to investment advisory services) or investment. The opinions expressed in the content do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate.The content contains general information only and does not take into account the individual objectives, financial situation or needs of a person. All information, opinions and estimates expressed in the content are current as of the date of publication, are subject to change without notice, and may become outdated over time. To the extent that any materials or investment services on or referred to in the content are construed to be regulated activities under the local laws of any jurisdiction and are made available to persons resident in such jurisdiction, they shall only be made available through appropriately licenced Nomura entities in that jurisdiction or otherwise through Nomura entities that are exempt from applicable licensing and regulatory requirements in that jurisdiction. For more information please go to https://www.nomuraholdings.com/policy/terms.html.

Suggested views

Jump to all insights on Economics