Focused Thinking

Rates

Central Banks
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Australia in 2019: Soft Growth, Falling House Prices and RBA Rate Cuts

2 min video | April 2019

Central Banks

RBA Growth Downgrades are Coming: is Australia’s Luck Running Out?

Many are wondering whether Australia’s luck is running out, amid slower global and regional growth, tightening financial conditions and falling local house prices.

1 min read | January 2019

Central Banks

Japan outlook 2019: gradual economic slowdown to continue

The recovery in Japan's economic activity is still rolling on, but the growth momentum is likely to weaken

2 min read | January 2019

Emerging Markets

Asia FX and rates outlook 2019

We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.

0 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.

3 min video | December 2018

Economics

Oil Price Slump: A Big EM Differentiator

Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on emerging markets than developed markets.

3 min read | November 2018

Economics

US-Sino Trade Friction: Not All a Lose-Lose Outcome for Asia

Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.

7 min video | November 2018

Economics

In the hunt for yield where are the new sources of volatility?

As mainstream markets evolve, structured products that focus on volatility are becoming more central to risk management and investment. Traditional products, such as long-only equities or bonds, are no longer a sufficient means for investors to achieve their goals.

1 min read | September 2018

Economics

Thailand: a fragile investment cycle

The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.

2 min read | September 2018

Central Banks

Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises

Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.

3 min read | September 2018

Economics

Deciphering EM Rate Expectations

What are some of the patterns in Asia with regards to fixing and policy rates? We analyze 14 EM rates markets through the prism of our rates expectation framework.

2 min read | August 2018

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Economics

Asia Growth Slowdown: Six Reasons Why a Growth Slowdown Lies Ahead

After nearly two years of an upcycle, signs are building that growth in Asia ex-Japan (AEJ) may be starting to roll over. By how much will Asian growth slow down and why?

4 min video | July 2018

Economics

DEFCON 4: Financial Risks are Rising. Vigilance Should, Too

The movie WarGames helped introduce the DEFCON system to the public back in 1983 (including a 14-year-old future bank strategist who took his first date to the movie, perhaps explaining why it remains memorable). DEFCON—or defense readiness condition—reflects U.S. military preparedness for war on a rising scale of severity.

4 min read | July 2018

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