Focused Thinking

Rates

Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

Central Banks

Japan: conditions for more BOJ easing and implications

Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?

3 min read | July 2019

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Central Banks

Asia Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2019

The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.

3 min video | July 2019

Central Banks

Are the Major Central Banks Trapped?

The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.

2 min read | July 2019

Economics

Damocles Update: Who is at Risk?

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

3 min podcast | July 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Will the Renminbi Crack Seven?

The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.

5 min read | June 2019

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Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2019

1 min read | June 2019

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Central Banks

Australia in 2019: Soft Growth, Falling House Prices and RBA Rate Cuts

2 min video | April 2019

Central Banks

RBA Growth Downgrades are Coming: is Australia’s Luck Running Out?

Many are wondering whether Australia’s luck is running out, amid slower global and regional growth, tightening financial conditions and falling local house prices.

1 min read | January 2019

Central Banks

Japan outlook 2019: gradual economic slowdown to continue

The recovery in Japan's economic activity is still rolling on, but the growth momentum is likely to weaken

2 min read | January 2019

Emerging Markets

Asia FX and rates outlook 2019

We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.

0 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.

3 min video | December 2018

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