Focused Thinking
Nomura’s key researchers, industry experts, investors, and economists explore the latest global macroeconomic trends that will impact financial markets.
Annual Outlook
US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.
8 min read | January 2024
Annual Outlook
We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.
4 min read | December 2023
Central Banks
In this MacroBrew fireside, we talk with Charnon Boonnuch from the Asia Economics team about Thailand after its recent election results.
26 min video | May 2023
Central Banks
In this MacroBrew fireside, we discuss whether the ECB will really defy market pricing and look to raise rates above 4% this year, and what risks we should watch out for in Europe in 2023.
18 min video | April 2023
Central Banks
We discuss the US debt limit and what economic and monetary policy impact the uncertainty could have, as well as political risks and what it means for FX and rates markets.
47 min video | April 2023
Central Banks
Our Cross-Asset Macro Strategist discusses whether the strong US data is a macro game changer.
42 min video | March 2023
Economics
Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.
3 min read | February 2023
Rates
We discuss key events and themes to track in 2022, and how they might affect our views.
57 min video | January 2022
Economics
Our Japan Macro and FX strategy team share their thoughts for Japanese markets in the year ahead
26 min video | January 2022
Central Banks
Our strategists share their top FX and rates views in 2022
30 min podcast | December 2021
Economics
We are cautious on Asia’s economic outlook in 2022 as the emergence of the Omicron variant reminds us that the pandemic is far from over.
2 min read | December 2021
Economics
Our strategists share their top FX and rates views in 2022
32 min podcast | December 2021
Rates
An overlay technique of consensus-ratings to improve the ESG quality of portfolios
5 min read | June 2021