Focused Thinking

Asia

Our experience navigating Asia’s cultures and customs is unrivaled. With integrated global access and deep roots in Asia, Nomura Connects is where our rigorous research meets our extensive global footprint and provides true insights to one connected market.
Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

Japan in focus

Bonsai: Why long-term commitment and vision underpins their beauty

Japan’s ancient bonsai tradition, where miniaturised shrubs and trees are grown in pots for many hundreds of years, creates a noble plant that, by definition, has withstood the test of time.

4 min read | August 2019

Central Banks

Japan: conditions for more BOJ easing and implications

Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?

3 min read | July 2019

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Central Banks

Asia Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2019

The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.

3 min video | July 2019

Central Banks

Are the Major Central Banks Trapped?

The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.

2 min read | July 2019

Central Banks

Global midyear economic outlook 2019

Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.

4 min read | July 2019

Economics

Damocles Update: Who is at Risk?

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

3 min podcast | July 2019

Emerging Markets

China Video Surveillance: Secure Ground in the Homeland

For video surveillance companies in China, we believe there are a few ways to increase sales growth momentum: the first is to expand the market from video surveillance to the more broad-based security product market by providing access control, intruder alarm systems and physical security and other security-related products and services.

2 min read | July 2019

Economics

US-China Trade Diversion: Who Benefits?

The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.

2 min read | June 2019

Economics

NIFA featured article - New Equilibrium: US-China Tensions and the Fate of Free Trade

5 min read | June 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Will the Renminbi Crack Seven?

The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.

5 min read | June 2019

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Technology

NIFA featured article - Reaping the Big-Data Dividend: Why China Stands to Gain most from AI

AI is predicted to add USD15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030. While North America is expected to receive nearly a quarter of this windfall, China’s economy will account for USD7 trillion, positioning it as a prime beneficiary of the AI boom.

4 min read | June 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Out of Ammo: Why the Next Slowdown may be Difficult to Counter

The biggest risk currently facing the global economy is the lack of sufficient tools – both fiscal and monetary – available to policymakers to counter another downturn.

4 min read | June 2019

Economics

Japanese economy to remain at low ebb

Our main scenario is that recession and additional policy response will be avoided

3 min read | June 2019

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