Focused Thinking

Emerging Markets

As the axis of global trade shifts, there are new connections that need to be understood. Emerging markets are continuing their path of development and becoming more central to global trade. Which countries will become closer and what are the connections between emerging markets’ progression, risks and opportunities?

Economics

Thailand: a fragile investment cycle

The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.

2 min read | September 2018

Central Banks

Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises

Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.

3 min read | September 2018

Economics

Deciphering EM Rate Expectations

What are some of the patterns in Asia with regards to fixing and policy rates? We analyze 14 EM rates markets through the prism of our rates expectation framework.

2 min read | August 2018

Emerging Markets

China FinTech – 2018: survival of the fittest

Artificial Intelligence (particularly machine learning) and big data technology have been widely adopted in the bank and insurance sectors, owing to the need of processing and understanding the growing customer base and industry data. Over the next two years, we anticipate a “survival of the fittest” scenario.

3 min read | July 2018

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Economics

Asia Growth Slowdown: Six Reasons Why a Growth Slowdown Lies Ahead

After nearly two years of an upcycle, signs are building that growth in Asia ex-Japan (AEJ) may be starting to roll over. By how much will Asian growth slow down and why?

4 min video | July 2018

Economics

No Anesthesia: Asia’s Giant Accepts Reform Pain in Exchange for Sustainability

After decades of double-digit growth, China’s macroeconomic slowdown to more sustainable levels continues to be a key feature of any serious analysis of the global economy. If there’s one immediate challenge in China this year, it's soaring property prices.

3 min read | June 2018

Economics

What are the five key drivers for Latin America FX in H2 2018?

Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm FX in H2 2018. We have identified the following five key drivers which are likely to continue to be important in terms of currency performance in the second-half of the year.

1 min read | June 2018

Emerging Markets

Digital Disinflation: a Powerful Force Taking Off in Emerging Markets

The first wave of global disinflation came from the globalization of trade. The world is now experiencing a second wave of global disinflation, driven by the digital technology revolution.

2 min read | June 2018

Economics

From the factory to the lab: Central and Eastern Europe’s innovation push

Central and Eastern Europe has been a manufacturing hub for the rest of the continent, but the model is creaking as labour costs rise; will innovation in software and digital write the next chapter in its growth story?

4 min read | June 2018

Economics

ASEAN: One body, many faces

As China’s labour-intensive manufacturing industries fan out across the wider region and local firms flex their muscles in capital-light industries such as ride-hailing and e-commerce, a significant number of blue-chip companies have moved into ASEAN.

6 min read | June 2018

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Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018

We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.

3 min video | June 2018

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Economics

Global Emerging Markets Podcast Series

Goldilocks economic conditions of strong growth and low inflation and the hunt for yield mean that most investors remain optimistic. But in our three podcasts below, Nomura economists point out that there are good reasons to be cautious.

8 min podcast | May 2018

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