As the axis of global trade shifts, there are new connections that need to be understood. Emerging markets are continuing their path of development and becoming more central to global trade. Which countries will become closer and what are the connections between emerging markets’ progression, risks and opportunities?
Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.
7 min video | November 2018
Current account deficits in Indonesia and the Philippines are not necessarily a bad sign; equally, current account surpluses in Northeast Asia are not necessarily a good sign. The key is what is driving them.
4 min read | October 2018
The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.
2 min read | September 2018
Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.
3 min read | September 2018
What are some of the patterns in Asia with regards to fixing and policy rates? We analyze 14 EM rates markets through the prism of our rates expectation framework.
2 min read | August 2018
Artificial Intelligence (particularly machine learning) and big data technology have been widely adopted in the bank and insurance sectors, owing to the need of processing and understanding the growing customer base and industry data. Over the next two years, we anticipate a “survival of the fittest” scenario.
3 min read | July 2018
After nearly two years of an upcycle, signs are building that growth in Asia ex-Japan (AEJ) may be starting to roll over. By how much will Asian growth slow down and why?
4 min video | July 2018
After decades of double-digit growth, China’s macroeconomic slowdown to more sustainable levels continues to be a key feature of any serious analysis of the global economy. If there’s one immediate challenge in China this year, it's soaring property prices.
3 min read | June 2018
Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm FX in H2 2018. We have identified the following five key drivers which are likely to continue to be important in terms of currency performance in the second-half of the year.
1 min read | June 2018
The first wave of global disinflation came from the globalization of trade. The world is now experiencing a second wave of global disinflation, driven by the digital technology revolution.
2 min read | June 2018
Central and Eastern Europe has been a manufacturing hub for the rest of the continent, but the model is creaking as labour costs rise; will innovation in software and digital write the next chapter in its growth story?
4 min read | June 2018
As China’s labour-intensive manufacturing industries fan out across the wider region and local firms flex their muscles in capital-light industries such as ride-hailing and e-commerce, a significant number of blue-chip companies have moved into ASEAN.
6 min read | June 2018