Focused Thinking
As the axis of global trade shifts, there are new connections that need to be understood. Emerging markets are continuing their path of development and becoming more central to global trade. Which countries will become closer and what are the connections between emerging markets’ progression, risks and opportunities?
Central Banks
Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.
2 min video | November 2019
Central Banks
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
Central Banks
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.
2 min read | July 2019
Economics
Is good economics also good politics? It could be argued that the experience of the past two decades suggests an inverted-U (a frown) relationship between the degree of populism and the electoral success.
2 min read | March 2019
Emerging Markets
ASEAN gross transaction value of mobile payments is expected to rise to USD109bn in next 10 years.
2 min read | February 2019
Economics
As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.
2 min video | December 2018
Emerging Markets
We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.
0 min video | December 2018
Central Banks
Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.
1 min video | December 2018
Economics
Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.
3 min video | December 2018
Economics
Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on emerging markets than developed markets.
3 min read | November 2018
Economics
Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.
7 min video | November 2018
Emerging Markets
Computing architecture is advancing owing to memory hierarchy innovation. While the performance of processors and storage continues to improve, the gap between their performances widens.
3 min read | November 2018
Economics
The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.
2 min read | September 2018