Focused Thinking

Emerging Markets

As the axis of global trade shifts, there are new connections that need to be understood. Emerging markets are continuing their path of development and becoming more central to global trade. Which countries will become closer and what are the connections between emerging markets’ progression, risks and opportunities?

Economics

What Drives the Oil Price Rise Matters

We found that a sustained rise in oil prices affects emerging markets more than developed markets, and can drive major differentiation in EM economic performance. In the event that oil prices continue to rise, there are likely to be clear winners and losers in EM.

2 min read | May 2019

Economics

China Home Appliances: Structural Positives, Near-Term Challenges

In view of a slower economy, overseas exposure has naturally become the key differentiator that will help home appliance makers arrest the growth slowdown, despite our cautious take, on the effectiveness of the forthcoming nationwide incentive package on home appliance sales.

2 min read | April 2019

Economics

Chinese Hog Cycle and Inflation

While Beijing’s policymakers are trying to boost growth by ramping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, the last thing they want is a rapid rise in inflation.

2 min read | April 2019

Economics

India: the 'Frown Curve' – why Politics and Economics don’t Always Smile

Is good economics also good politics? It could be argued that the experience of the past two decades suggests an inverted-U (a frown) relationship between the degree of populism and the electoral success.

2 min read | March 2019

Emerging Markets

ASEAN internet: Opening up the mobile wallet

ASEAN gross transaction value of mobile payments is expected to rise to USD109bn in next 10 years.

2 min read | February 2019

Emerging Markets

Spearheading game-changing East-West M&A deals as Asia’s leading investment bank

Asian M&A shows no sign of abating — even despite the fluctuating geopolitical environment. As the only global investment bank anchored in Asia, Nomura is strongly positioned to advise companies aiming to close significant, value-accretive transactions that cut across borders and jurisdictions.

2 min read | January 2019

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Economics

Equity Markets in 2019: Soft Power Matters

As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.

2 min video | December 2018

Emerging Markets

Asia FX and rates outlook 2019

We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.

0 min video | December 2018

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Central Banks

India Outlook 2019: Elephant to Lose Stamina

Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.

1 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Korea Outlook 2019: Expect a Counter-Cyclical BOK Policy

We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.

2 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.

3 min video | December 2018

Economics

Oil Price Slump: A Big EM Differentiator

Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on emerging markets than developed markets.

3 min read | November 2018

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