Nomura

UK: Top 5 articles from 2018

As we move swiftly into 2019, see the articles most read by people in the UK in 2018.

1. Will UK housing continue to stand tall or fall?

Over the past 30 years, real interest rates in the UK and other developed economies have been on a long-term downward trend. This has supported the valuations of many assets, including house prices. With real interest rates predicted to rise gradually over the next decade or two, precisely the opposite (a ‘decapitalisation’, or a fall in real house prices) could happen and we believe real house prices could be 20% lower by 2030.

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2. How has economic activity in the UK responded to the Brexit vote?

More than 2.5 years on from the Brexit referendum and with the deal being rejected by MPs in January, the UK’s latest annual rate of growth stands at 1.3% – close to the bottom of the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US) league table. It’s a good time to assess the ongoing impact of this momentous vote.

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3. Connecting Eastern traditions & Western ingredients

Is the unique connection between East and West at London ramen restaurant Tonkotsu and at Mondo Brewing, a Japanese-inspired English craft brewer, a symbol of the future UK-Japan relationship? At a time of global geopolitical uncertainty, the United Kingdom's focus on Japan and recognition of the similarities between these two island nations could bring a stronger connection, greater economic security and richer cultural integration.

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4. Five market moving events that should be on your radar

There is an undeniable correlation between geopolitics, market sentiment and the macro trading environment. In an era when a single tweet could trigger a geopolitical escalation, developed markets are beginning to behave more like emerging markets and political wrangling continues to be a major driver.

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5. Deal-contingent hedging: a flexible way to mitigate risk

Recent geopolitical volatility has had dramatic repercussions in the financial markets. The Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU have caused sterling to plummet to lows not seen in years, and protectionist rhetoric from the US has sent shockwaves through global FX markets and lifted interest rates to 5-year-highs.

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