US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect a strong 1.3mn increase in April NFP, reflecting a broad-based improvement in labor market indicators during the month as re-opening accelerates.
  • The pandemic’s impact on economic activity has started to wane as social consumption recovers and Democrats deliver substantial fiscal stimulus in 2021.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • We expect ongoing economic re-opening to support another strong round of key economic indicators for April.
  • Nonfarm payroll employment likely rose 1.3mn in April, boosted by solid private hiring and another notable contribution from state & local government education.
  • Both the ISM manufacturing (+0.6pp to 65.3) and services (+1.3pp to 65.0) indices likely increased in April.
  • Against the positive data backdrop, we believe Fed communication has entered a potentially more volatile phase as hawkish participants push the discussion on tapering.
  • That said, we expect the core of the FOMC to remain patient and start more intensive taper deliberations around June.
  • President Biden’s proposed American Families Plan marks the beginning of a new, more difficult phase in his presidency.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributor

  • Lewis Alexander

    Chief US Economist

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