- We expect a rebound in February nonfarm payroll employment growth, while weather disruptions could distort business surveys during the month.
- Near-term drag from the pandemic should give way to medium-term strength as social consumption recovers and Democrats deliver substantial fiscal stimulus in 2021.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- The recent sharp increases in interest rates will likely put pressure on the Fed to adjust their communication ahead of the March FOMC meeting.
- We expect the Fed to respond primarily by emphasizing their forward guidance for short-term rates.
- However, at the March meeting, the Committee may discuss other options including adjusting the Fed’s asset purchases.
- Following the House last week, the Senate will work to approve the $1.9tn American Rescue Plan this week, although some changes will need to be made to the House legislation.
- We expect relatively healthy readings for the first round of key February data including a 200k increase in nonfarm payroll employment.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Chief US Economist