US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect further deceleration in m-o-m core CPI inflation, and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases and inventory constraints may weigh on retail sales during August.
  • Peak re-opening pressures may have passed. We expect growth and inflation to begin moderating in H2 2021 as the Fed shifts to carefully removing accommodation.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Comments from New York Fed President Williams suggest the FOMC core remains comfortable with a November tapering announcement despite disappointing August NFP, consistent with our base case.
  • However, his remarks also indicate the FOMC is shifting towards a faster pace of tapering.
  • We now believe the Fed will taper asset purchases per month instead of per meeting, ending purchases after June 2022, earlier than our previous forecast of September 2022.
  • We expect m-o-m August core CPI inflation to moderate further to 0.2% from 0.3% in July as inflationary pressures ease, while August retail sales and industrial production are likely to decline.
  • Pressure continued to build this week in Washington as Congress has yet to establish a clear plan for addressing looming fiscal deadlines at end-September and end-October

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributor

  • Aichi Amemiya

    US Economist

  • Rob Dent

    Senior US Economist

  • Kenny Lee

    US Economist

Disclaimer

This content has been prepared by Nomura solely for information purposes, and is not an offer to buy or sell or provide (as the case may be) or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell or enter into any agreement with respect to any security, product, service (including but not limited to investment advisory services) or investment. The opinions expressed in the content do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate.The content contains general information only and does not take into account the individual objectives, financial situation or needs of a person. All information, opinions and estimates expressed in the content are current as of the date of publication, are subject to change without notice, and may become outdated over time. To the extent that any materials or investment services on or referred to in the content are construed to be regulated activities under the local laws of any jurisdiction and are made available to persons resident in such jurisdiction, they shall only be made available through appropriately licenced Nomura entities in that jurisdiction or otherwise through Nomura entities that are exempt from applicable licensing and regulatory requirements in that jurisdiction. For more information please go to https://www.nomuraholdings.com/policy/terms.html.

Suggested views

Back to top icon-back-to-top-arrow