US Economic Weekly Update
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
- Attention turns to the November FOMC minutes – with likely discussions on a slower hiking pace to a higher terminal rate – along with flash November S&P PMIs
- Additional hikes are likely amid shifting debates, from hiking speed to destination and from peak to trend inflation, while a nascent recession begins to take hold.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- Fedspeak turned more hawkish last week as participants appeared to engage in a coordinated effort to push back against the market reaction to October CPI inflation.
- Many speakers highlighted what would likely be an above-5% terminal rate, and that while the Fed may slow the pace of rate hikes, it should not be taken as a dovish development.
- This week, focus turns to another round of Fedspeak and the November FOMC minutes.
- PPI data for October last week support our view that m-o-m core PCE inflation will moderate less than core CPI inflation.
- The flash S&P November PMIs, new home sales and durable goods orders this week bear monitoring.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Contributor
Aichi Amemiya
Senior US Economist
Robert Dent
Senior US Economist
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