- We expect a strong 1.3mn increase in April NFP, reflecting a broad-based improvement in labor market indicators during the month as re-opening accelerates.
- The pandemic’s impact on economic activity has started to wane as social consumption recovers and Democrats deliver substantial fiscal stimulus in 2021.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- We expect ongoing economic re-opening to support another strong round of key economic indicators for April.
- Nonfarm payroll employment likely rose 1.3mn in April, boosted by solid private hiring and another notable contribution from state & local government education.
- Both the ISM manufacturing (+0.6pp to 65.3) and services (+1.3pp to 65.0) indices likely increased in April.
- Against the positive data backdrop, we believe Fed communication has entered a potentially more volatile phase as hawkish participants push the discussion on tapering.
- That said, we expect the core of the FOMC to remain patient and start more intensive taper deliberations around June.
- President Biden’s proposed American Families Plan marks the beginning of a new, more difficult phase in his presidency.
- Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Chief US Economist