Economics | 1 min read | May 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • The 9 July tariff deadline will be in focus amid a data-light week.
  • Increased downside risks to growth and a more front-loaded inflation shock are likely to lead the Fed to deliver three consecutive cuts from December 2025 through March 2026.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Headline nonfarm payrolls (NFP) surprised to the upside in June, but details of the employment report pointed to a gradual slowdown in labor markets.
  • Overall, today's report should be healthy enough to keep the Fed patient about resuming rate cuts.
  • We are likely to see more trade deal announcements ahead of the 9 July deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause.
  • The trade deal with Vietnam announced this week was more hawkish than we expected, posing risk that other countries could face higher tariff rates.
  • The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) progressed to the House and is slated to pass before Trump's 4 July deadline. We expect the bill to be moderately stimulative in the near term.

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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