Nomura

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect few major innovations from the FOMC and continued improvement in core retail sales and ex-auto manufacturing output in August as the recovery remains on track.
  • We expect a slower pace of recovery as COVID-19 remains a persistent headwind to growth. The Fed will likely focus on credit facilities and keeping long rates low.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • We expect the FOMC to discuss major policy innovations at the September meeting but an announcement will likely take place later this year.
  • Comments from participants before the meeting did not reveal a firm consensus on stronger forward guidance or the outlook for asset purchases.
  • An ongoing stalemate in Congress likely means that any “phase four” stimulus bill will not come until after federal elections on 3 November.
  • However, we expect incoming data this week to remain strong, with solid increases in both core (“control”) retail sales and ex-auto manufacturing output during August.

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.

Read our September FOMC Preview report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributor

  • Lewis Alexander

    Chief US Economist

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