US Economic Weekly Update
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
- Core CPI inflation likely decelerated in February.
- We expect no cuts in 2025. Easing can resume in Q2 2026 after a tariff induced inflation resurgence has passed
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- Scheduled tariff increases on China, Canada, and Mexico went into effect last Tuesday. Tariffs were subsequently scaled back for Canada and Mexico on Thursday.
- Trade restrictions are already beginning to weigh on business sentiment and should begin to put upward pressure on inflation going into the spring.
- Job gains picked up to 151k in February, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. Near-term risks from the federal hiring freeze and DOGE-related layoffs persist.
- Core CPI likely grew 0.287% m-o-m in February, reversing some January strength. The moderation was likely led by softening in vehicle prices and rent inflation.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Contributor
David Seif
Chief Economist for Developed Markets
Aichi Amemiya
Senior US Economist
Jeremy Schwartz
Senior US Economist
Ruchir Sharma
US Economist
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