- We expect a rebound in the ISM non-manufacturing index in June despite elevated • downside risk and look for any signs of elevated initial claims in Arizona, Florida or Texas.
- We expect a very deep recession due to COVID-19 and the Fed to implement its plans supporting a range of financial markets as the labor market remains extremely weak.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- June data surprised to the upside with better-than-expected gains in nonfarm payroll employment and the ISM manufacturing index.
- Key indicators for the month suggest a significant amount of activity before the surge in new COVID-19 cases.
- The outlook for July is much more uncertain as state and local governments re-impose restrictions on activity.
- A weaker recovery in resident mobility and restaurant activity in heavily affected states suggest some slowdown may have already occurred.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Contributor
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Lewis Alexander
Chief US Economist