Economics | 1 min read | November 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect core CPI accelerated in April, largely due to technical factors associated with rent-related components.
  • We now expect cuts in September and December. Diminishing near-term political pressure and price pressures from the Iran war led us to push back the timing of cuts.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Employment growth remained strong in April and details of the establishment survey were largely positive, with good breadth of employment growth across sectors.
  • The unemployment rate ticked up in unrounded terms to 4.337% from 4.256%. Broader details in the household survey suggest this is likely just stabilization, rather than a sign of looming stress.
  • We expect core CPI inflation accelerated to 0.287% m-o-m in April from 0.196%, largely due to technical factors associated with rent-related components. Core goods inflation likely rebounded modestly, led by higher vehicle prices and a stabilization in prescription drug prices.
  • More officials pushed back against the easing bias in the forward guidance, raising the likelihood that the median 2026 dot shifts up to no cuts at the June FOMC meeting.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

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