Economics | 1 min read | August 2026

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

  • We expect job gains picked up to 60k in August, while the u-rate ticked down to 4.0%.
  • We expect waning inflation momentum to keep the Fed on hold.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • The FOMC delivered a unanimous hike, in line with our expectation. The 2026 dot moved up to signal another hike and the distribution pointed to broad support for further tightening.
  • We continue to expect another 25bp hike in December.
  • The broader message was hawkish. Economic growth and inflation projections were revised higher, while Chair Warsh argued financial conditions were not restrictive and characterized the hike as removing “a dose of accommodation.”
  • Growth remains robust, and we have raised our Q3 GDP tracking estimate to 4.0% q-o-q ar from 3.3% last week. Real retail sales accelerated in August, and we expect business capex also remained solid.
  • Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

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