- We expect few major innovations from the FOMC and continued improvement in core retail sales and ex-auto manufacturing output in August as the recovery remains on track.
- We expect a slower pace of recovery as COVID-19 remains a persistent headwind to growth. The Fed will likely focus on credit facilities and keeping long rates low.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- We expect the FOMC to discuss major policy innovations at the September meeting but an announcement will likely take place later this year.
- Comments from participants before the meeting did not reveal a firm consensus on stronger forward guidance or the outlook for asset purchases.
- An ongoing stalemate in Congress likely means that any “phase four” stimulus bill will not come until after federal elections on 3 November.
- However, we expect incoming data this week to remain strong, with solid increases in both core (“control”) retail sales and ex-auto manufacturing output during August.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Read our September FOMC Preview report here.
Contributor
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Lewis Alexander
Chief US Economist