US Economic Weekly Update
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
- We expect cuts to begin in September. Growth momentum is cooling and disinflation is likely to continue.
- Data next week will focus on cooling labor markets
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- The July FOMC meeting is likely to be uneventful. Data since the June meeting have been dovish, but officials appear reluctant to telegraph a September rate cut.
- We continue to expect that the Fed will cut rates twice this year in September and December.
- We expect labor data will continue to cool gradually, with job gains slowing to 165k and the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.1%.
- Q2 GDP growth was higher than consensus, but close to our expectation. We expect Q2 strength will prove ephemeral, with growth dropping below trend in H2.
- Core PCE inflation rebounded to 0.182% in June, consistent with further progress towards the Fed’s 2% target.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Contributor
David Seif
Chief Economist for Developed Markets
Aichi Amemiya
Senior US Economist
Jeremy Schwartz
Senior US Economist
Ruchir Sharma
US Economist
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