Nomura

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • We expect continued employment growth in November but at a slower pace with heightened uncertainty due to the worsening near-term COVID-19 outlook.
  • We expect fiscal drag and a resurgent COVID-19 to weigh on growth in H1 2021 before an acceleration in H2. The Fed will likely focus on providing more accommodation.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • Growth in new COVID-19 cases has shown some signs of plateauing, suggesting restrictions put in place and changes in individual behavior may be slowing the spread of the virus in the US.
  • However, the Thanksgiving holiday may have resulted in additional social contact, raising the risk of another wave in December.
  • We expect employment growth to decelerate in November given the slowdown in high-frequency data and less seasonal hiring for the retail sector.
  • The November FOMC minutes suggest a higher-than-expected likelihood of the Committee introducing stronger forward guidance for their asset purchases at the December meeting.
  • Incoming data between now and mid-December will likely determine what action, if any, the Fed takes at the next meeting.

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributor

  • Lewis Alexander

    Chief US Economist

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