US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • Based on recent Fedspeak and inflation data, we now believe the Fed is likely to reduce the policy rate by 25bp in June 2024
  • We expect the pace of cuts to pick up in September 2024 once a recession is underway
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • We expect Core CPI inflation likely remained stable at 0.3% m-o-m in December
  • Used vehicle prices likely resumed declining, while non-auto core prices likely rebounded in December
  • December FOMC minutes did not seem to offer clarity on the rate cut debate, however they did include a brief discussion on a potential end to QT
  • The December employment report was positive, with headline payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings (AHE) coming in better than expectations
  • ISM services declined, with the employment index falling to the lowest level since May 2020

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributor

    Aichi Amemiya

    Aichi Amemiya

    Senior US Economist

    Jeremy Schwartz

    Jeremy Schwartz

    Senior US Economist

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