- We expect continued employment growth in November but at a slower pace with heightened uncertainty due to the worsening near-term COVID-19 outlook.
- We expect fiscal drag and a resurgent COVID-19 to weigh on growth in H1 2021 before an acceleration in H2. The Fed will likely focus on providing more accommodation.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- Growth in new COVID-19 cases has shown some signs of plateauing, suggesting restrictions put in place and changes in individual behavior may be slowing the spread of the virus in the US.
- However, the Thanksgiving holiday may have resulted in additional social contact, raising the risk of another wave in December.
- We expect employment growth to decelerate in November given the slowdown in high-frequency data and less seasonal hiring for the retail sector.
- The November FOMC minutes suggest a higher-than-expected likelihood of the Committee introducing stronger forward guidance for their asset purchases at the December meeting.
- Incoming data between now and mid-December will likely determine what action, if any, the Fed takes at the next meeting.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Contributor
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Lewis Alexander
Chief US Economist