Economics | 1 min read | May 2025

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • Core CPI will likely show limited signs of tariff-induced price pressures.
  • Increased downside risks to growth and a more front-loaded inflation shock are likely to lead the Fed to deliver three consecutive cuts from December 2025 through March 2026.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • President Trump announced unilateral tariff rate increases against 23 trade partners this week. He also indicated that sector-specific tariffs were likely to escalate as well.
  • Fedspeak this week showed divisions emerging in the FOMC’s “wait-and-see” approach. Almost all officials appear comfortable remaining on hold at the upcoming July meeting, but hawks and doves are beginning to disagree on the balance of risks for inflation.
  • Core CPI inflation likely rebounded modestly to 0.242% in June. We expect few signs of broad-based price increases due to tariffs in the CPI print; however, we think some tariff-sensitive goods prices rose.
  • Core PCE inflation will likely pick up in June due to an increase in portfolio management and investment advice prices.

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.



US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar

Contributors

David Seif

Chief Economist for Developed Markets

Aichi Amemiya

Senior US Economist

Jeremy Schwartz

Senior US Economist

Ruchir Sharma

US Economist

Jacklyn Goloborodsky

US Economist

Disclaimer

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