US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

  • Consumer confidence for March could be an early indication of how the banking sector’s stress is affecting consumers’ outlooks, while core PCE likely decelerated in February.
  • We believe the Fed has delivered the last hike of the cycle as financial stability considerations rise and financial tightening renders likely further hikes unnecessary.
  • Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data.

US Economic Weekly Key Insights

  • We believe the terminal federal funds rate has been reached, and 25bp per meeting cuts and the halt of QT will start March 2024.
  • Ongoing financial stress should generate enough financial tightening to replace at least several 25bp rate hikes.
  • Financial stability will now likely be the primary consideration in upcoming federal funds rate decisions.
  • H4.1 and H.8 data on the Fed’s balance sheet and commercial bank lending suggest ongoing stress, but do not show conditions deteriorating.
  • Core PCE inflation will likely decelerate to a 0.36% m-o-m increase in February, with the core services ex-housing subset in focus.

Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.

US Markets - Economic Data and Events Calendar


    Aichi Amemiya

    Aichi Amemiya

    Senior US Economist

    Jacob Meyer

    Jacob Meyer

    US Economist


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