Focused Thinking
Central Banks
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
Technology
AI is predicted to add USD15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030. While North America is expected to receive nearly a quarter of this windfall, China’s economy will account for USD7 trillion, positioning it as a prime beneficiary of the AI boom.
4 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
2 min video | April 2019
Economics
2 min video | March 2019
Volatility
We’ve seen the market shift regimes where growth is heading sub-trend. The lack of policy maker ammunition may trigger more unconventional policies
1 min read | February 2019
Volatility
Our European Outlook looks at what will drive recovery in Europe in 2019.
3 min video | February 2019
Volatility
Our UK 2019 outlook looks at how the UK still remains attractive to international investors despite Brexit uncertainty.
1 min read | February 2019
Economics
As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.
2 min video | December 2018
Central Banks
Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.
1 min video | December 2018
Economics
We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.
4 min video | December 2018
Economics
Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.
3 min video | December 2018