From hard policies to trade routes, the causes and effects of volatility are connected across the planet. To recognise the opportunities and risks, know how to pick the triggers to watch from the grey swans.
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
1 min read | April 2020
The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.
5 min video | January 2020
What's in store for the Euro Area as we move into 2020?
2 min video | January 2020
After surging in 2010-11, global food prices have been on a downtrend, but this can quickly change.
5 min video | December 2019
Among its struggling European peers, how has France managed to stay ahead of the game?
3 min read | November 2019
Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.
2 min video | November 2019
2 min video | October 2019
Expectations are growing that the BOJ will decide to further loosen monetary policy.
5 min read | October 2019
We update and expand the scope of our analysis for the impact for global automakers, and the intensity of the fallout from a hard Brexit.
2 min read | October 2019
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?
4 min read | September 2019
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.
2 min read | July 2019
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
4 min read | July 2019
