Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
1 min read | April 2020
What's in store for the Euro Area as we move into 2020?
2 min video | January 2020
After surging in 2010-11, global food prices have been on a downtrend, but this can quickly change.
5 min video | December 2019
Among its struggling European peers, how has France managed to stay ahead of the game?
3 min read | November 2019
Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.
2 min video | November 2019
Expectations are growing that the BOJ will decide to further loosen monetary policy.
5 min read | October 2019
We update and expand the scope of our analysis for the impact for global automakers, and the intensity of the fallout from a hard Brexit.
2 min read | October 2019
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?
4 min read | September 2019
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.
2 min read | July 2019