Focused Thinking
Japan in focus
Nomura supported the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in the creation of a deep dive podcast series looking into the future of Japan and where their culture, economy, and government will be by 2030 and beyond.
20 min podcast | September 2019
Economics
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
Central Banks
Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?
3 min read | July 2019
Central Banks
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
Central Banks
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.
2 min read | July 2019
Central Banks
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
5 min read | July 2019
Economics
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
3 min podcast | July 2019
Emerging Markets
For video surveillance companies in China, we believe there are a few ways to increase sales growth momentum: the first is to expand the market from video surveillance to the more broad-based security product market by providing access control, intruder alarm systems and physical security and other security-related products and services.
2 min read | July 2019
Economics
The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.
2 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.
5 min read | June 2019
Economics
5 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The biggest risk currently facing the global economy is the lack of sufficient tools – both fiscal and monetary – available to policymakers to counter another downturn.
4 min read | June 2019
Technology
AI is predicted to add USD15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030. While North America is expected to receive nearly a quarter of this windfall, China’s economy will account for USD7 trillion, positioning it as a prime beneficiary of the AI boom.
4 min read | June 2019
Economics
Our main scenario is that recession and additional policy response will be avoided
3 min read | June 2019