Focused Thinking

Articles

Annual Outlook

US 2025 Outlook: Trump’s Policies to Shape the Path Ahead

The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.

9 min read | January 2025

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum: Trump Win a Backlash Against Elites, Says Koo

The result of the 2024 US presidential election was not a win for Trump, but rather a loss for America’s elite, according to Richard Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute

3 min read | December 2024

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2025 Outlook – Shifting from Inflation to Growth

The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy

7 min read | December 2024

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum: Slow Does Not Mean Stagnant for Japanese Companies

Companies in Japan have been on a long march towards becoming technology leaders

3 min read | December 2024

Annual Outlook

Japan Macro Outlook 2025

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the market returns to normal

4 min read | December 2024

Rates

How Uncleared Margin Rules are Driving Demand for Equity Futures

Regulatory drivers combined with higher rates are reshaping a corner of the derivatives market

4 min read | December 2024

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2025: Navigating the Rapids

Turbulence ahead for Asia from Trumponomics, slowing exports and a weaker China

4 min read | December 2024

Emerging Markets

What’s Spurring India’s Robust Equity Fund-Raising?

The country has emerged as a hotbed for equity fund-raising, with over US$16 billion raised through IPOs this year

3 min read | December 2024

Economics

Trump’s populist policies and the Triffin dilemma

The perceived safety of US dollar assets could be marred by Trump’s populist policies in his second presidency.

5 min read | November 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: The Trump curveball for Asia

Asia is better prepared for Donald Trump’s second presidency, but a larger economic growth drag and disinflation now look more likely in 2025.

3 min read | November 2024

Economics

More Flexible Rules Spur Use of Bond Buybacks by Financial Firms

Regulatory clarifications have opened-up the market for bond buybacks, allowing financial firms to proactively manage upcoming refinancing of regulatory capital.

3 min read | November 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Asia’s China exposure

After China’s stimulus blitz, we revisit China’s spillovers on other Asian economies.

5 min read | October 2024

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