Focused thinking: 2 min read
Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices ... [Read more]
May 2018
Brazil: What is currently priced in? (Presidential election edition)
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Focused thinking: 1 min read
A continued rise in oil prices would divide emerging markets by economic performance. The macroeconomic ... [Read more]
Higher oil prices drive EM divergence
Focused thinking: 3 min read
BRI should deliver an economic win-win for China and the countries it covers; China will ... [Read more]
April 2018
The Belt and Road Initiative: globalization, China style
Focused thinking: 4 min read
Four potential events this year could lead to an emerging markets pricing snapback: a US ... [Read more]
Where are the risks in an EM snapback?
In this study, our economists assess the impact of US trade protectionism, centering on China ... [Read more]
Who would bear the brunt of increased US protectionism?
Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned ... [Read more]
March 2018
Deleveraging in a political milieu: Asia’s elephant faces a pivotal year
M2 growth has fallen sharply in China since mid-2016 and has recently recorded consecutive record ... [Read more]
China: beyond falling M2 growth
Focused thinking: 6 min read
In a time of global economic and political uncertainty, Japan’s relative stability stands out. After ... [Read more]
Japanese cross-border M&A takes off
A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and ... [Read more]
December 2017
Asia Economic Outlook 2018
Rising interest rates present challenges for both investors and corporates. However, there are a variety ... [Read more]
November 2017
Get ready for rising rates
Over the past 30 years real interest rates in the UK and other developed economies ... [Read more]
September 2017
Will UK housing continue to stand tall or fall?
The expansion of shadow banking in China was driven by banks' risk appetite to pursue ... [Read more]
China: coming out of the shadows