Focused Thinking

Articles

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Taylor rule estimates for Asia

A rules-based framework to project the trajectory of central bank policy rates suggests less easing than our forecasts in Korea and risks of deeper cuts in Thailand and China.

3 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

US 2024 Outlook – Slowdown, Recession and Last-Mile Inflation Risks Ahead?

US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.

8 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

Europe 2024 Outlook – Will Inflation Get Back To Target?

We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.

4 min read | December 2023

Sustainability

COP28 – Achievements and Outcomes

The Dubai summit achieved a landmark agreement to transition away from fossil fuels for the first time. COP28 calls on countries to contribute to the global effort to accelerate action in this critical decade to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

3 min read | December 2023

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2024: Positioned for outperformance

We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.

4 min read | December 2023

Technology

How to sustainably monetize generative AI

The total addressable market for generative AI is projected to be US$185 billion in 2025.

3 min read | December 2023

Annual Outlook

Nomura Investment Forum: Japan Macro Outlook 2024

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon after a relatively strong year.

4 min read | December 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Asia’s inflation divergence

After synchronized disinflation so far this year, we see more divergence in the inflation outlook for Asian economies. We identify the hot, warm and cold candidates.

4 min read | November 2023

Technology

Transforming money into data

Real-time settlements, interoperability of payment rails and programable instruments are boosting cross-border transactions.

3 min read | November 2023

Technology

Intelligent driving technology could go mainstream in China by 2025: Kaijun Qiu

Vehicles with autonomous driving functions could go mainstream in 2025 as both functionality and user experience reach a turning point.

3 min read | November 2023

Economics

Exploring China’s new consumption trends: Shaun Rein

China’s consumers are spending differently after the pandemic, turning selective on quality and trading down, said Shaun Rein of China Market Research Group.

3 min read | October 2023

Japan in focus

Japan Price Hikes Shows Resilience Against Deflation

Corporate pricing behavior in Japan continues to adjust in positive ways, with growing price-setting flexibility leading to greater resilience against deflation.

3 min read | October 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: The goods cycle is headed higher for now

Asia’s goods cycle has bottomed out and is headed higher over the next two quarters.

3 min read | October 2023

Economics

China Investor Forum 2023 – The Global Economic Outlook

We are cautious on the economic outlook and expect global growth to slow to 2.0% in 2024. CPI inflation should continue easing into next year.

7 min read | October 2023

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