Focused Thinking

Economics

Central Banks

Japan outlook 2019: gradual economic slowdown to continue

The recovery in Japan's economic activity is still rolling on, but the growth momentum is likely to weaken

2 min read | January 2019

Economics
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Equity Markets in 2019: Soft Power Matters

As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.

2 min video | December 2018

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Central Banks

India Outlook 2019: Elephant to Lose Stamina

Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.

1 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Korea Outlook 2019: Expect a Counter-Cyclical BOK Policy

We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.

2 min video | December 2018

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Economics

ASEAN outlook 2019: split into two camps

As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.

2 min video | December 2018

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Economics

China outlook 2019: after winter comes spring

As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.

4 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.

3 min video | December 2018

Economics

Oil Price Slump: A Big EM Differentiator

Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on emerging markets than developed markets.

3 min read | November 2018

Economics

US-Sino Trade Friction: Not All a Lose-Lose Outcome for Asia

Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.

7 min video | November 2018

Central Banks

Getting to know the rule setters: gauging how Asia’s central banks set policy

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.

5 min read | November 2018

Central Banks

Surplus or deficit: what drives the current account matters

Current account deficits in Indonesia and the Philippines are not necessarily a bad sign; equally, current account surpluses in Northeast Asia are not necessarily a good sign. The key is what is driving them.

4 min read | October 2018

Economics

Euroyen market delivers swift results

Euroyen bonds offer size and speed for banks seeking regulatory capital. Are more deals on the way?

4 min read | October 2018

Economics

In the hunt for yield where are the new sources of volatility?

As mainstream markets evolve, structured products that focus on volatility are becoming more central to risk management and investment. Traditional products, such as long-only equities or bonds, are no longer a sufficient means for investors to achieve their goals.

1 min read | September 2018

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