Focused Thinking



In the hunt for yield where are the new sources of volatility?

As mainstream markets evolve, structured products that focus on volatility are becoming more central to risk management and investment. Traditional products, such as long-only equities or bonds, are no longer a sufficient means for investors to achieve their goals.

1 min read | September 2018


Thailand: a fragile investment cycle

The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.

2 min read | September 2018

Central Banks

Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises

Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.

3 min read | September 2018


Why global bonds are still attractive to Japanese issuers

Issuance hit a record high in 2017 and conditions remain supportive for new issues.

3 min read | August 2018


Deciphering EM Rate Expectations

What are some of the patterns in Asia with regards to fixing and policy rates? We analyze 14 EM rates markets through the prism of our rates expectation framework.

2 min read | August 2018


Asia Growth Slowdown: Six Reasons Why a Growth Slowdown Lies Ahead

After nearly two years of an upcycle, signs are building that growth in Asia ex-Japan (AEJ) may be starting to roll over. By how much will Asian growth slow down and why?

4 min video | July 2018


DEFCON 4: Financial Risks are Rising. Vigilance Should, Too

The movie WarGames helped introduce the DEFCON system to the public back in 1983 (including a 14-year-old future bank strategist who took his first date to the movie, perhaps explaining why it remains memorable). DEFCON—or defense readiness condition—reflects U.S. military preparedness for war on a rising scale of severity.

4 min read | July 2018


No Anesthesia: Asia’s Giant Accepts Reform Pain in Exchange for Sustainability

After decades of double-digit growth, China’s macroeconomic slowdown to more sustainable levels continues to be a key feature of any serious analysis of the global economy. If there’s one immediate challenge in China this year, it's soaring property prices.

3 min read | June 2018


Why market volatility is inevitable

Our research analysts, as well as representatives from our sales and trading desks from around the globe discuss the inevitability of volatility, and its true meaning. Volatility is often misunderstood and can mean different things to different people.

3 min video | June 2018


What are the five key drivers for Latin America FX in H2 2018?

Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm FX in H2 2018. We have identified the following five key drivers which are likely to continue to be important in terms of currency performance in the second-half of the year.

1 min read | June 2018


From the factory to the lab: Central and Eastern Europe’s innovation push

Central and Eastern Europe has been a manufacturing hub for the rest of the continent, but the model is creaking as labour costs rise; will innovation in software and digital write the next chapter in its growth story?

4 min read | June 2018


ASEAN: One body, many faces

As China’s labour-intensive manufacturing industries fan out across the wider region and local firms flex their muscles in capital-light industries such as ride-hailing and e-commerce, a significant number of blue-chip companies have moved into ASEAN.

6 min read | June 2018