Focused Thinking
From hard policies to trade routes, the causes and effects of volatility are connected across the planet. To recognise the opportunities and risks, know how to pick the triggers to watch from the grey swans.
Economics
While household debt outstrips incomes across the country, is the UK unusual among its peers?
2 min read | April 2019
Central Banks
2 min video | April 2019
Volatility
We’ve seen the market shift regimes where growth is heading sub-trend. The lack of policy maker ammunition may trigger more unconventional policies
1 min read | February 2019
Volatility
Our European Outlook looks at what will drive recovery in Europe in 2019.
3 min video | February 2019
Volatility
Our UK 2019 outlook looks at how the UK still remains attractive to international investors despite Brexit uncertainty.
1 min read | February 2019
Central Banks
Many are wondering whether Australia’s luck is running out, amid slower global and regional growth, tightening financial conditions and falling local house prices.
2 min read | January 2019
Economics
As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.
2 min video | December 2018
Emerging Markets
We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.
0 min video | December 2018
Central Banks
Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.
1 min video | December 2018
Economics
We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.
2 min video | December 2018
Volatility
Despite a difficult year, investors remain keen to use alternative risk premia strategies. However, current approaches may be less diversified than they appear, especially given cross-contamination in cash equity factors. A more diversified approach making use of fixed income has led to better returns and a more resilient portfolio
1 min read | December 2018
Economics
Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.
7 min video | November 2018
Central Banks
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.
5 min read | November 2018
Emerging Markets
Computing architecture is advancing owing to memory hierarchy innovation. While the performance of processors and storage continues to improve, the gap between their performances widens.
3 min read | November 2018