Focused Thinking
Economics
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term
3 min read | April 2025
Economics
Disinflation is underway in Asia, with inflation falling within central bank targets across most countries.
3 min read | March 2025
Economics
The private credit market is rapidly evolving, with new players, products and rules set to help it reach a projected $2.64tn by 2029.
3 min read | March 2025
Economics
The US clampdown on using third countries to circumvent tariffs on China could reshape global supply chains
4 min read | March 2025
Central Banks
US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.
4 min read | February 2025
Economics
In an interconnected world, the impact from higher US tariffs can sometimes ricochet beyond the target country
5 min read | February 2025
Economics
As investors weigh up whether US equities can defy gravity for another year, buying quality and selling junk stocks offers a hedge in the event of a downturn.
3 min read | February 2025
Economics
The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone agreement was signed on January 7
2 min read | January 2025
Economics
Despite low inflation and soft growth, currency weakness is constraining some Asian central banks’ ability to cut policy rates
5 min read | January 2025
Japan in focus
The emergence of generative AI represents a springboard for economic growth and digital transformation for Japan.
3 min read | January 2025
Annual Outlook
The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.
9 min read | January 2025
Economics
The result of the 2024 US presidential election was not a win for Trump, but rather a loss for America’s elite, according to Richard Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute
3 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy
8 min read | December 2024
Economics
Companies in Japan have been on a long march towards becoming technology leaders
3 min read | December 2024