Focused Thinking

Economics

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Economics

Fireside Chat - The Wonder Down Under: How have the Antipodes dealt with Covid-19?

How have the Antipodes navigated COVID19 so well, and what are the next steps for their economy?

18 min podcast | May 2020

Economics

US: Updating our Forecast as the Covid-19 Outbreak Matures

Different ways to think about the contraction and the long road to recovery

4 min read | May 2020

Economics

World after reopening and ideas for Japanese equities

Basic strategy likely to involve shift to sectors with high intrinsic growth rate (alpha)

3 min read | April 2020

Economics

Damocles Update 3: Our Early Warning Indicator of Exchange Rate Crises

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

1 min read | April 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - Big stimulus in the pipeline, but China won’t rescue the Global economy again

In this episode of our Fireside podcast series Jordan Rochester and our Chief China Economist Ting Lu discuss the outlook for China.

24 min podcast | April 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - Europe’s next response to Covid-19

Our Chief Euro Area Economist George Buckley and FX Strategist Jordan Rochester discuss what the future holds for Europe under lockdown.

19 min podcast | April 2020

Economics

The Global Economic Impact of Covid-19

Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.

3 min read | April 2020

Central Banks

Will Covid-19 tip the Japanese economy into recession?

Japan's senior society facing severe economic cycle

3 min read | March 2020

Economics

Upturn in global IT cycle and the Japanese economy

Attention is focusing on the global IT cycle following the launch of commercial 5G services. Global semiconductor sales bottomed out in 2019 H1 and recovered in the summer.

4 min read | February 2020

Central Banks

2020 US Outlook: Extending a long expansion

Extending a long expansion

3 min read | February 2020

Economics

Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

5 min video | January 2020

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Central Banks

UK and Euro Area Outlook 2020

New year, new decade, new risks?

2 min read | January 2020

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