Focused Thinking
Central Banks
Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?
3 min read | July 2019
Central Banks
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
Central Banks
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.
2 min read | July 2019
Central Banks
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
5 min read | July 2019
Economics
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
3 min podcast | July 2019
Economics
The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.
2 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.
5 min read | June 2019
Economics
5 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The biggest risk currently facing the global economy is the lack of sufficient tools – both fiscal and monetary – available to policymakers to counter another downturn.
4 min read | June 2019
Economics
Our main scenario is that recession and additional policy response will be avoided
3 min read | June 2019
Economics
We found that a sustained rise in oil prices affects emerging markets more than developed markets, and can drive major differentiation in EM economic performance. In the event that oil prices continue to rise, there are likely to be clear winners and losers in EM.
2 min read | May 2019
Economics
In view of a slower economy, overseas exposure has naturally become the key differentiator that will help home appliance makers arrest the growth slowdown, despite our cautious take, on the effectiveness of the forthcoming nationwide incentive package on home appliance sales.
2 min read | April 2019
Economics
While Beijing’s policymakers are trying to boost growth by ramping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, the last thing they want is a rapid rise in inflation.
2 min read | April 2019