Focused Thinking
Economics
We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.
4 min video | December 2018
Economics
Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.
3 min video | December 2018
Economics
Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on emerging markets than developed markets.
3 min read | November 2018
Economics
Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.
7 min video | November 2018
Central Banks
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.
5 min read | November 2018
Central Banks
Current account deficits in Indonesia and the Philippines are not necessarily a bad sign; equally, current account surpluses in Northeast Asia are not necessarily a good sign. The key is what is driving them.
4 min read | October 2018
Economics
Euroyen bonds offer size and speed for banks seeking regulatory capital. Are more deals on the way?
4 min read | October 2018
Economics
The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.
2 min read | September 2018
Central Banks
Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.
3 min read | September 2018
Economics
Issuance hit a record high in 2017 and conditions remain supportive for new issues.
4 min read | August 2018
Economics
What are some of the patterns in Asia with regards to fixing and policy rates? We analyze 14 EM rates markets through the prism of our rates expectation framework.
2 min read | August 2018
Economics
After nearly two years of an upcycle, signs are building that growth in Asia ex-Japan (AEJ) may be starting to roll over. By how much will Asian growth slow down and why?
4 min video | July 2018