Economics

Ten years after the financial crisis: a more stable financial system with new risks

Asia Top Ideas Breakfast Series

On March 8, 2019, some of our top alpha generating analysts came together to share their latest views for the coming 2Q19 quarter in different industries including, energy, transportation, gaming and technology, to name a few.

India: the 'Frown Curve' – why Politics and Economics don’t Always Smile

Is good economics also good politics? It could be argued that the experience of the past two decades suggests an inverted-U (a frown) relationship between the degree of populism and the electoral success.

How will BOJ respond to calls for more easing?

Out of the limited number of options available, what method can the BOJ use?

RBA Growth Downgrades are Coming: is Australia’s Luck Running Out?

Many are wondering whether Australia’s luck is running out, amid slower global and regional growth, tightening financial conditions and falling local house prices.

Japan outlook 2019: gradual economic slowdown to continue

The recovery in Japan's economic activity is still rolling on, but the growth momentum is likely to weaken

Equity Markets in 2019: Soft Power Matters

As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.

India Outlook 2019: Elephant to Lose Stamina

Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.

Korea Outlook 2019: Expect a Counter-Cyclical BOK Policy

We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.

ASEAN outlook 2019: split into two camps

As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.

China outlook 2019: after winter comes spring

As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.