Focused Thinking

Economics

Economics

Damocles update 3: Our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

1 min read | April 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - Big stimulus in the pipeline, but China won’t rescue the Global economy again

In this episode of our Fireside podcast series Jordan Rochester and our Chief China Economist Ting Lu discuss the outlook for China.

24 min podcast | April 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - Europe’s next response to Covid-19

Our Chief Euro Area Economist George Buckley and FX Strategist Jordan Rochester discuss what the future holds for Europe under lockdown.

19 min podcast | April 2020

Economics

The Global Economic Impact of Covid-19

Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.

3 min read | April 2020

Central Banks

Will Covid-19 tip the Japanese economy into recession?

3 min read | March 2020

Economics

Upturn in global IT cycle and the Japanese economy

4 min read | February 2020

Central Banks

2020 US Outlook: Extending a long expansion

2020 Growth Expectations

3 min read | February 2020

Economics

Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

5 min video | January 2020

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Central Banks

UK and Euro Area Outlook 2020

New year, new decade, new risks?

2 min read | January 2020

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Central Banks

Global economic outlook 2020: On shaky foundations

17 min video | January 2020

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Central Banks

UK Outlook 2020

How will the UK fair amongst some Brexit clarity, will 2020 be the year of recovery?

1 min read | January 2020

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Central Banks

Brexit & FX Outlook 2020

Will this New Year mean a New Brexit?

2 min video | January 2020

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