Focused Thinking
Economics
Canada will likely secure an agreement with the US on the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) but under a more conditional framework that institutionalizes volatility and weighs on growth
4 min read | May 2026
Economics
Chinese exporters may inadvertently stand to gain from a global shock
3 min read | April 2026
Annual Outlook
Japan is reaping the rewards of price, wage, and rate hikes as households through to corporates enjoy an increase in revenue
4 min read | April 2026
Central Banks
The impact of the energy shock on inflation and growth varies across Asian economies; differentiation in central banks’ responses is crucial
4 min read | April 2026
Economics
The original “China shock” was a reference to the economic disruptions in the West caused by the surge in imports from China
2 min read | April 2026
Economics
The first survey since the Iran conflict started shows input cost pressures, margin compression and longer supplier delivery times, with EM Asia facing a sharper impact
2 min read | April 2026
Central Banks
Even modest repatriation of USD assets could significantly appreciate the value of their currencies and erode export competitiveness
4 min read | April 2026
Economics
We expect US tariff policy to continue its current de-escalatory trajectory, despite the possibility of episodic flare-ups
5 min read | March 2026
Central Banks
Increasing energy prices weigh on Europe and Asia, while the US remains largely insulated; energy exporters outside of the Middle East benefit from elevated prices
4 min read | March 2026
Economics
The region is at the epicenter of the energy security shock and faces potential stagflation, if disruptions persist beyond a month
4 min read | March 2026
Economics
Thailand, India, Korea and the Philippines are the most vulnerable to higher oil prices, due to their high import dependence, while Malaysia would be a relative beneficiary as an energy exporter
5 min read | March 2026
Economics
AI is estimated to have contributed approximately 2pp to Asia's GDP growth in 2025, accounting for half of total growth, primarily through trade
2 min read | February 2026
Central Banks
We forecast ECB rates will remain unchanged through 2027 as inflation stays near target. However, tight labor markets and above-potential growth in 2028 risk pushing inflation higher, likely requiring at least two rate hikes to restore price stability.
4 min read | February 2026
Economics
The deal sends a message to the US that global economies are forging deals and strategic alliances with one another as the US becomes more insular
4 min read | February 2026