Focused Thinking

Economics

Central Banks
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MacroBrew - US Debt Limit: Is It Worse Than 2011?

We discuss the US debt limit and what economic and monetary policy impact the uncertainty could have, as well as political risks and what it means for FX and rates markets.

47 min video | April 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Seven reasons to expect faster disinflation

Slower pace of inflation is driven by lower underlying inflation momentum and helped by base effects.

3 min read | April 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Our growth cycle framework

We present our framework on growth cycles and the intersection between Asia’s inventory and final demand cycles.

2 min read | March 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - US: Is the Strong Data a Macro Game Changer or a Fade?

Our Cross-Asset Macro Strategist discusses whether the strong US data is a macro game changer.

42 min video | March 2023

Economics

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: This Time Is Different

With the ECB far from done on raising interest rates and government debt levels higher than they were before the last sovereign debt crisis, this is an issue at the forefront of many investors’ and no doubt central bankers’ minds.

3 min read | March 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly

We raise our 2023 GDP growth projections slightly, but a services-driven recovery in China and the US, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not as positive for Asia.

3 min read | February 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - How Fast Has China's Reopening Been So Far?

Our Chief China Economist from the Asia economics team discusses whether China’s reopening is running full steam ahead.

28 min video | February 2023

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Economics

MacroBrew – Nomura Macro Outlook 2023: Tough Choices

15 min video | February 2023

Economics

How the Changing Rates Outlook is Boosting Demand for Convexity Hedging

Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.

3 min read | February 2023

Economics

Assessing countries at risk of hard versus soft economic landings

Our analysis suggests developed market economies are more at risk of hard landings this time than emerging market economies, a break from the usual pattern.

3 min read | February 2023

Economics

How Far Could UK House Prices Fall?

We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.

3 min read | January 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew: Will the ECB be the Last Major Central Bank Hiking?

In this episode, we discuss European growth and the ECB policy outlook.

27 min video | January 2023

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Economics

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Time to Shine

8 min read | January 2023

Economics

US 2023 Outlook: The Economic Costs of Curbing Inflation

We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators

12 min read | January 2023

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