Focused Thinking

Economics

Annual Outlook

US 2024 Outlook – Slowdown, Recession and Last-Mile Inflation Risks Ahead?

US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.

8 min read | January 2024

Economics

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

1 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

Europe 2024 Outlook – Will Inflation Get Back To Target?

We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.

4 min read | December 2023

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2024: Positioned for outperformance

We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.

4 min read | December 2023

Annual Outlook

Nomura Investment Forum: Japan Macro Outlook 2024

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon after a relatively strong year.

4 min read | December 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Asia’s inflation divergence

After synchronized disinflation so far this year, we see more divergence in the inflation outlook for Asian economies. We identify the hot, warm and cold candidates.

4 min read | November 2023

Economics

Exploring China’s new consumption trends: Shaun Rein

China’s consumers are spending differently after the pandemic, turning selective on quality and trading down, said Shaun Rein of China Market Research Group.

3 min read | October 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: The goods cycle is headed higher for now

Asia’s goods cycle has bottomed out and is headed higher over the next two quarters.

3 min read | October 2023

Economics

China Investor Forum 2023 – The Global Economic Outlook

We are cautious on the economic outlook and expect global growth to slow to 2.0% in 2024. CPI inflation should continue easing into next year.

7 min read | October 2023

Economics

Europe – Heading Over the Recession Precipice

We now expect the Euro Area and UK to fall into recession. The latest survey data have been particularly weak, and lags in monetary policy, rising bankruptcies, plummeting demand for lending, and a poor global backdrop, all suggest it is only a matter of time until a recession materialises.

4 min read | September 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Is Asia slowly decoupling from China?

China’s share in Asian exports is slowing and Asian lenders’ exposure to China is plateauing.

4 min read | September 2023

Economics

Damocles: Our Early Warning Indicator of EM Exchange Rate Crises

Our early warning model of EM exchange rate crises shows Turkey, Czech Republic, Sri Lanka and Romania are at risk

2 min read | August 2023

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8