Focused Thinking

Economics

Economics

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: This Time Is Different

With the ECB far from done on raising interest rates and government debt levels higher than they were before the last sovereign debt crisis, this is an issue at the forefront of many investors’ and no doubt central bankers’ minds.

3 min read | March 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly

We raise our 2023 GDP growth projections slightly, but a services-driven recovery in China and the US, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not as positive for Asia.

3 min read | February 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - How Fast Has China's Reopening Been So Far?

Our Chief China Economist from the Asia economics team discusses whether China’s reopening is running full steam ahead.

28 min video | February 2023

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Economics

MacroBrew – Nomura Macro Outlook 2023: Tough Choices

15 min video | February 2023

Economics

How the Changing Rates Outlook is Boosting Demand for Convexity Hedging

Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.

3 min read | February 2023

Economics

Assessing countries at risk of hard versus soft economic landings

Our analysis suggests developed market economies are more at risk of hard landings this time than emerging market economies, a break from the usual pattern.

3 min read | February 2023

Economics

How Far Could UK House Prices Fall?

We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.

3 min read | January 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew: Will the ECB be the Last Major Central Bank Hiking?

In this episode, we discuss European growth and the ECB policy outlook.

27 min video | January 2023

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Economics

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Time to Shine

8 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

US 2023 Outlook: The Economic Costs of Curbing Inflation

We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators

12 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2023 Outlook – Will Sovereign Debt Risk be a Theme of 2023?

Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.

4 min read | January 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – 2023 Outlook: Tough Choices and Rolling with the Punches

In this episode of our Fireside Chats podcast series, we talk with Rob Subbaraman, Global Head of Macro Research, and Sonal Varma, Chief Economist India & AEJ, on the 2023 outlook.

33 min video | December 2022

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