Focused Thinking
Economics
The Trump administration has announced a range of measures aimed at addressing affordability in the run up to this year’s midterm elections including housing, healthcare and consumer finances. In our view, these initiatives are unlikely to materially alter the near-term inflation outlook
6 min read | January 2026
Central Banks
A consumption tax moratorium and a weak yen might encourage the BOJ to raise interest rates sooner and more often
3 min read | January 2026
Economics
Rising US capex in artificial intelligence is benefiting Asia on a broader basis than just increased chip exports
3 min read | January 2026
Annual Outlook
Various major drags on Europe’s economies might explain weak expectations for trend growth including de-globalisation, climate change, demographics, and in the UK’s case, Brexit. But could German fiscal loosening save the day?
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
The world's second-largest economy stands at a pivotal juncture as it prepares to implement its 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026
3 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists discuss their views on the Japan economy in the year to come
4 min read | December 2025
Annual Outlook
AI demand and the memory supercycle should sustain tech exports, but the outlook for non-tech demand is mixed. We see a North-South monetary policy divide across Asia.
5 min read | December 2025
Economics
Beyond the near term, the US aims to build new critical mineral supply chains, bring more economies under its economic sphere of influence, and drive Asian reforms through stealth.
3 min read | November 2025
Economics
Tariffs will soon begin to bite, impacting exports and investment, but strong demand for artificial intelligence and a memory supercycle should power a concentrated recovery
4 min read | October 2025
Economics
Evidence from US import prices and Asia's export prices suggests Asian exporters are absorbing one-fifth of US tariffs, while passing on the remaining costs
4 min read | September 2025
Economics
The recent stock market rally should have a limited expansionary impact on China’s real economic growth
3 min read | September 2025
Economics
As the standoff between the two countries continues, we analyze likely scenarios, macro spillovers, and India's countercyclical and strategic response
2 min read | September 2025
Economics
Weak US nonfarm payrolls and a not too-hot CPI report have led Nomura economists to bring forward the timing of the next Fed rate cut to September from December
4 min read | August 2025
Economics
Behind headline tariffs is a deeper story: Asia's struggle to balance US demands against economic consequences
3 min read | August 2025