Focused Thinking
Annual Outlook
AI demand and the memory supercycle should sustain tech exports, but the outlook for non-tech demand is mixed. We see a North-South monetary policy divide across Asia.
5 min read | December 2025
Economics
Beyond the near term, the US aims to build new critical mineral supply chains, bring more economies under its economic sphere of influence, and drive Asian reforms through stealth.
3 min read | November 2025
Economics
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
1 min read | November 2025
Economics
Tariffs will soon begin to bite, impacting exports and investment, but strong demand for artificial intelligence and a memory supercycle should power a concentrated recovery
4 min read | October 2025
Economics
Evidence from US import prices and Asia's export prices suggests Asian exporters are absorbing one-fifth of US tariffs, while passing on the remaining costs
4 min read | September 2025
Economics
The recent stock market rally should have a limited expansionary impact on China’s real economic growth
3 min read | September 2025
Economics
As the standoff between the two countries continues, we analyze likely scenarios, macro spillovers, and India's countercyclical and strategic response
2 min read | September 2025
Economics
Weak US nonfarm payrolls and a not too-hot CPI report have led Nomura economists to bring forward the timing of the next Fed rate cut to September from December
4 min read | August 2025
Economics
Behind headline tariffs is a deeper story: Asia's struggle to balance US demands against economic consequences
3 min read | August 2025
Economics
The Trump administration re-escalated trade tensions in recent weeks
2 min read | August 2025
Economics
Soaring tech and sluggish non-tech exports have led to a two-speed recovery in Asia. As front-loading effects fade, Nomura economists see another fork in the road
3 min read | July 2025
Economics
As we expect private consumption to remain subdued in the coming quarters, Nomura economists forecast 2025 GDP growth to come in at the lower end of the central bank’s forecast range
3 min read | July 2025
Economics
Nomura economists say the inevitable payback from China’s trade-in program and new restrictions on alcohol and catering could drag retail sales growth in H2
3 min read | July 2025
Economics
Amid trade tensions, it has become increasingly complex for Asian countries to negotiate trade deals with the US while maintaining economic ties with China
2 min read | June 2025