56 search results for: Geopolitics

Emerging Markets

Russian Invasion of Ukraine to Turbocharge Renewables Deals

The Russian invasion of Ukraine could provide the 'jolt' that gives renewables the scale needed to deliver the EU’s climate policies

2 min read | May 2022

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Sustainability

ESG360 - How War in Ukraine can Accelerate Renewables Adoption

In this episode of ESG360, we discuss Europe’s plan to reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels and what that means for the energy transition

22 min video | April 2022

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Economics

Fireside Chats - US Outlook: New Year, new President, new America?

What does 2021 hold for the USA?

3 min podcast | January 2021

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Central Banks

2021 Equities Outlook: ...it is more about 2022

In 2021, investors will likely focus on an eventual 2022 renormalization driven by potentially even better vaccines/therapeutics to help contain the spread of the virus.

17 min video | December 2020

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Central Banks

Asia Outlook 2021 – Bracing for Reflation

We are overall quite positive on the outlook for Asia in 2021, with an above consensus GDP growth rebound.

6 min read | December 2020

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Fireside Chats: 2021 Outlook – Global restoration, converting hope into reality.

Our Global outlook for 2021.

39 min podcast | December 2020

Central Banks

Thailand: The Economic Fallout of Political Protests – This Time is No Different

Student-led protests have resumed in Thailand, demanding constitutional changes and reforms to the monarchy.

3 min read | December 2020

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Emerging Markets

Fireside Chats – Asia Insights: How do the Thai protests tie into the Thai economy?

How much of an impact are the recent protests having on the Thai Economy?

34 min video | November 2020

Economics

Asia under Bidenomics

Following the recent US elections, we explore the likely impact of Biden’s policies on Asia’s economies.

10 min read | November 2020

Economics

The 2020 US Presidential Election - What to know?

With less than a week till Election Day, we've highlighted the key policies, swing states, probabilities, events and more to keep in mind.

3 min read | October 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats – The 2020 US Election: Trump vs Biden, who will be ‘shut up’ for good?

We talk with Robert Dent, from our US economics team, on the outlook for the US after the first TV debate.

17 min podcast | October 2020

Economics

Economic Policy under a Biden Administration

If Biden wins in November, he is likely to usher in a new set of US economic objectives and policies.

4 min read | September 2020

Geopolitics

Covid-19 a blessing in disguise for climate change?

We look at 6 ways that COVID-19 has helped address key issues in climate change.

4 min read | August 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - The World After Covid-19: Where do we go next?

Have Governments and Investors reached their limits?

21 min podcast | August 2020

Economics

Diversification from China: The push and pull factors

What are the Global implications of diversifying from China?

3 min read | August 2020

Geopolitics

Government debt - a new paradigm?

For economies to stay afloat, historic amounts of fiscal and economic stimulus have been provided, but how will this sovereign debt be repaid?

2 min read | August 2020

Central Banks

The world post Covid-19

The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.

3 min read | July 2020

Economics

Damocles Update 3: Our Early Warning Indicator of Exchange Rate Crises

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

1 min read | April 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - Big stimulus in the pipeline, but China won’t rescue the Global economy again

In this episode of our Fireside podcast series Jordan Rochester and our Chief China Economist Ting Lu discuss the outlook for China.

24 min podcast | April 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - Europe’s next response to Covid-19

Our Chief Euro Area Economist George Buckley and FX Strategist Jordan Rochester discuss what the future holds for Europe under lockdown.

19 min podcast | April 2020

Economics

The Global Economic Impact of Covid-19

Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.

3 min read | April 2020

Economics

Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

5 min video | January 2020

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Central Banks

Global Economic Outlook 2020: On Shaky Foundations

Global growth appears set to bottom out. However, we expect 2020 to be a year of global growth consolidation than a full-fledged recovery.

17 min video | January 2020

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Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Tokyo featured article: US-China conflict reshaping global trade order

5 min video | December 2019

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Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Tokyo featured article: Japan’s Economy in 2020 - Making the Case for Cautious Optimism

We expect Japan to remain on a path of “steady but slow” economic growth in 2020.

1 min video | December 2019

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Central Banks

Indonesia: The Return of Fiscal Conservatism

2 min video | October 2019

Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

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Central Banks

Asia Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2019

The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.

3 min video | July 2019

Central Banks

Global midyear economic outlook 2019

Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.

4 min read | July 2019

Economics

Damocles Update: Who is at Risk?

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

3 min podcast | July 2019

Economics

US-China Trade Diversion: Who Benefits?

The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.

2 min read | June 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Will the Renminbi Crack Seven?

The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.

5 min read | June 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Out of Ammo: Why the Next Slowdown may be Difficult to Counter

The biggest risk currently facing the global economy is the lack of sufficient tools – both fiscal and monetary – available to policymakers to counter another downturn.

4 min read | June 2019

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Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2019

1 min read | June 2019

Economics

India: the 'Frown Curve' – why Politics and Economics don’t Always Smile

Is good economics also good politics? It could be argued that the experience of the past two decades suggests an inverted-U (a frown) relationship between the degree of populism and the electoral success.

2 min read | March 2019

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| February 2019

Emerging Markets

Spearheading game-changing East-West M&A deals as Asia’s leading investment bank

Asian M&A shows no sign of abating — even despite the fluctuating geopolitical environment. As the only global investment bank anchored in Asia, Nomura is strongly positioned to advise companies aiming to close significant, value-accretive transactions that cut across borders and jurisdictions.

2 min read | January 2019

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Central Banks

India Outlook 2019: Elephant to Lose Stamina

Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.

1 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Korea Outlook 2019: Expect a Counter-Cyclical BOK Policy

We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.

2 min video | December 2018

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Economics

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.

3 min video | December 2018

Economics

US-Sino Trade Friction: Not All a Lose-Lose Outcome for Asia

Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.

7 min video | November 2018

Economics

Thailand: a fragile investment cycle

The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.

2 min read | September 2018

Economics

Why global bonds are still attractive to Japanese issuers

Issuance hit a record high in 2017 and conditions remain supportive for new issues.

3 min read | August 2018

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Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018

We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.

3 min video | June 2018

Economics

Unintended Consequences: How Deregulation Could Lead to Credit Risk

As banks savor the possibility of deregulation, many are anticipating a ramp up in new lending. While this optimism may feel good in the moment, it’s important to keep in mind a lesson from history: when legislators make decisions in highly regulated areas, unintended consequences often result.

3 min read | May 2018

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Economics

Global Emerging Markets Podcast Series

Goldilocks economic conditions of strong growth and low inflation and the hunt for yield mean that most investors remain optimistic. But in our three podcasts below, Nomura economists point out that there are good reasons to be cautious.

8 min podcast | May 2018

Economics

Brazil: What is currently priced in? (Presidential election edition)

Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.

2 min read | May 2018

Economics

The Belt and Road Initiative: Globalization, China Style

BRI should deliver an economic win-win for China and the countries it covers; China will also gain geopolitically. What are the benefits and risks for participating countries?

3 min read | April 2018

Economics

Deleveraging in a political milieu: Asia’s elephant faces a pivotal year

Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.

3 min read | March 2018

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Economics

Global Emerging Markets Seminar 2018

In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.

1 min video | February 2018

Economics

Time for the National Pension Service to escape “home bias”

The National Pension Service (NPS) is Korea’s social security reserve fund. It was created in 1988 to support the retirement benefits of its citizens. Asset allocation ultimately determines the long-term investment performance of any pension fund. We explore five reasons why the NPS will become more ambitious in accelerating its allocation shift to overseas assets, particularly equities.

2 min read | February 2018

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Economics

Outlook 2018: US

With a new Federal Reserve chairman set to take office early in 2018, a Republic Congress at the helm and the future of free trade agreements and healthcare up in the air, what can investors expect in 2018?

2 min video | December 2017

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Economics

Outlook 2018: Asia

What will China do to avoid following the Japanese bubble in the 80s and 90s? What level of US protectionism can we expect on Asian economies in 2018?

5 min video | December 2017

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Economics

Oil price moves: A big EM differentiator

With oil prices on the rise this year, we discuss its impact on different emerging markets (EM). The rise in oil prices redistributes the global income from consumers to producers, which can lead to a varied macroeconomic effect on the EM universe.

4 min podcast | November 2017

Economics

China: coming out of the shadows

The expansion of shadow banking in China was driven by banks' risk appetite to pursue high returns against a backdrop of slower economic growth, economic rebalancing and behind-the-curve regulation of the sector. As China’s capital market continues to mature, the key for regulators will be to minimize and control the risks that shadow banking poses.

3 min read | September 2017

Economics

Are striving tiger cubs the next phase of flying geese?

Our Asia economists present their scorecard of 23 Emerging Markets on foreign direct investment attractiveness and confirm India and ASEAN’s advantage over other Emerging Markets due to multiple push and pull factors.

11 min podcast | August 2017