Economics
While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.
3 min read | May 2025
Economics
The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.
4 min read | May 2025
Economics
Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world
5 min read | April 2025
Economics
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term
3 min read | April 2025
Central Banks
US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.
4 min read | February 2025
Sustainability
Sanjeev Krishnan is Managing Partner at S2G Ventures, an investment firm focused on the food and agriculture, oceans and energy sectors. Sanjeev tells Nomura Greentech about his mission to transform our core systems to support a planet of 10 billion people.
3 min read | August 2024
Economics
Singapore will develop strategies that align with national interests, said Sim Ann, Senior Minister of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of National Development of Singapore.
3 min read | June 2024
Annual Outlook
We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.
4 min read | December 2023
Economics
Singapore’s deputy prime minister believes that economic fundamentals in Asia makes for a great opportunity when balanced with prudent risk management.
4 min read | July 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators
12 min read | January 2023
Emerging Markets
The Russian invasion of Ukraine could provide the 'jolt' that gives renewables the scale needed to deliver the EU’s climate policies
2 min read | May 2022
Sustainability
In this episode of ESG360, we discuss Europe’s plan to reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels and what that means for the energy transition
22 min video | April 2022
Economics
What does 2021 hold for the USA?
3 min podcast | January 2021
Central Banks
In 2021, investors will likely focus on an eventual 2022 renormalization driven by potentially even better vaccines/therapeutics to help contain the spread of the virus.
17 min video | December 2020
Central Banks
We are overall quite positive on the outlook for Asia in 2021, with an above consensus GDP growth rebound.
6 min read | December 2020
Focused thinking
Our Global outlook for 2021.
39 min podcast | December 2020
Central Banks
Student-led protests have resumed in Thailand, demanding constitutional changes and reforms to the monarchy.
3 min read | December 2020
Emerging Markets
How much of an impact are the recent protests having on the Thai Economy?
34 min video | November 2020
Economics
Following the recent US elections, we explore the likely impact of Biden’s policies on Asia’s economies.
10 min read | November 2020
Economics
With less than a week till Election Day, we've highlighted the key policies, swing states, probabilities, events and more to keep in mind.
3 min read | October 2020
Economics
We talk with Robert Dent, from our US economics team, on the outlook for the US after the first TV debate.
17 min podcast | October 2020
Economics
If Biden wins in November, he is likely to usher in a new set of US economic objectives and policies.
4 min read | September 2020
Geopolitics
We look at 6 ways that COVID-19 has helped address key issues in climate change.
4 min read | August 2020
Economics
Have Governments and Investors reached their limits?
21 min podcast | August 2020
Economics
What are the Global implications of diversifying from China?
3 min read | August 2020
Geopolitics
For economies to stay afloat, historic amounts of fiscal and economic stimulus have been provided, but how will this sovereign debt be repaid?
2 min read | August 2020
Central Banks
The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.
3 min read | July 2020
Economics
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
2 min read | April 2020
Economics
In this episode of our Fireside podcast series Jordan Rochester and our Chief China Economist Ting Lu discuss the outlook for China.
24 min podcast | April 2020
Economics
Our Chief Euro Area Economist George Buckley and FX Strategist Jordan Rochester discuss what the future holds for Europe under lockdown.
19 min podcast | April 2020
Economics
Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.
3 min read | April 2020
Economics
The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.
5 min video | January 2020
Central Banks
Global growth appears set to bottom out. However, we expect 2020 to be a year of global growth consolidation than a full-fledged recovery.
17 min video | January 2020
Economics
5 min video | December 2019
Economics
We expect Japan to remain on a path of “steady but slow” economic growth in 2020.
1 min video | December 2019
Economics
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
Central Banks
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
Central Banks
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
5 min read | July 2019
Economics
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
3 min podcast | July 2019
Economics
The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.
2 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.
5 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The biggest risk currently facing the global economy is the lack of sufficient tools – both fiscal and monetary – available to policymakers to counter another downturn.
4 min read | June 2019
Economics
Is good economics also good politics? It could be argued that the experience of the past two decades suggests an inverted-U (a frown) relationship between the degree of populism and the electoral success.
2 min read | March 2019
Emerging Markets
Asian M&A shows no sign of abating — even despite the fluctuating geopolitical environment. As the only global investment bank anchored in Asia, Nomura is strongly positioned to advise companies aiming to close significant, value-accretive transactions that cut across borders and jurisdictions.
2 min read | January 2019
Central Banks
Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.
1 min video | December 2018
Economics
We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.
3 min video | December 2018
Economics
Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.
7 min video | November 2018
Economics
The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.
2 min read | September 2018
Economics
Issuance hit a record high in 2017 and conditions remain supportive for new issues.
4 min read | August 2018
Central Banks
We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.
2 min video | June 2018
Economics
As banks savor the possibility of deregulation, many are anticipating a ramp up in new lending. While this optimism may feel good in the moment, it’s important to keep in mind a lesson from history: when legislators make decisions in highly regulated areas, unintended consequences often result.
4 min read | May 2018
Economics
Goldilocks economic conditions of strong growth and low inflation and the hunt for yield mean that most investors remain optimistic. But in our three podcasts below, Nomura economists point out that there are good reasons to be cautious.
11 min podcast | May 2018
Economics
Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.
2 min read | May 2018
Economics
BRI should deliver an economic win-win for China and the countries it covers; China will also gain geopolitically. What are the benefits and risks for participating countries?
4 min read | April 2018
Economics
Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.
3 min read | March 2018
Economics
In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.
1 min video | February 2018
Economics
The National Pension Service (NPS) is Korea’s social security reserve fund. It was created in 1988 to support the retirement benefits of its citizens. Asset allocation ultimately determines the long-term investment performance of any pension fund. We explore five reasons why the NPS will become more ambitious in accelerating its allocation shift to overseas assets, particularly equities.
3 min read | February 2018
Economics
With a new Federal Reserve chairman set to take office early in 2018, a Republic Congress at the helm and the future of free trade agreements and healthcare up in the air, what can investors expect in 2018?
2 min video | December 2017
Economics
What will China do to avoid following the Japanese bubble in the 80s and 90s? What level of US protectionism can we expect on Asian economies in 2018?
5 min video | December 2017
Economics
With oil prices on the rise this year, we discuss its impact on different emerging markets (EM). The rise in oil prices redistributes the global income from consumers to producers, which can lead to a varied macroeconomic effect on the EM universe.
4 min podcast | November 2017
Economics
The expansion of shadow banking in China was driven by banks' risk appetite to pursue high returns against a backdrop of slower economic growth, economic rebalancing and behind-the-curve regulation of the sector. As China’s capital market continues to mature, the key for regulators will be to minimize and control the risks that shadow banking poses.
4 min read | September 2017
Economics
Our Asia economists present their scorecard of 23 Emerging Markets on foreign direct investment attractiveness and confirm India and ASEAN’s advantage over other Emerging Markets due to multiple push and pull factors.
11 min podcast | August 2017