Focused Thinking
Economics
The Chinese market for GLP-1 drugs to treat diabetes and obesity could grow to US$11.4 billion by 2033.
2 min read | February 2024
Economics
A rules-based framework to project the trajectory of central bank policy rates suggests less easing than our forecasts in Korea and risks of deeper cuts in Thailand and China.
3 min read | January 2024
Annual Outlook
US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.
8 min read | January 2024
Annual Outlook
We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon after a relatively strong year.
4 min read | December 2023
Economics
After synchronized disinflation so far this year, we see more divergence in the inflation outlook for Asian economies. We identify the hot, warm and cold candidates.
4 min read | November 2023
Economics
China’s consumers are spending differently after the pandemic, turning selective on quality and trading down, said Shaun Rein of China Market Research Group.
3 min read | October 2023
Economics
Asia’s goods cycle has bottomed out and is headed higher over the next two quarters.
3 min read | October 2023
Economics
We are cautious on the economic outlook and expect global growth to slow to 2.0% in 2024. CPI inflation should continue easing into next year.
7 min read | October 2023
Economics
We now expect the Euro Area and UK to fall into recession. The latest survey data have been particularly weak, and lags in monetary policy, rising bankruptcies, plummeting demand for lending, and a poor global backdrop, all suggest it is only a matter of time until a recession materialises.
4 min read | September 2023
Economics
China’s share in Asian exports is slowing and Asian lenders’ exposure to China is plateauing.
4 min read | September 2023
Economics
Our early warning model of EM exchange rate crises shows Turkey, Czech Republic, Sri Lanka and Romania are at risk
2 min read | August 2023
Economics
Fiscal policy will be the first line of defense against rising food prices in Asia
3 min read | August 2023