Focused Thinking
Annual Outlook
Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.
4 min read | January 2023
Central Banks
In this episode of our Fireside Chats podcast series, we talk with Rob Subbaraman, Global Head of Macro Research, and Sonal Varma, Chief Economist India & AEJ, on the 2023 outlook.
33 min video | December 2022
Economics
80 min video | December 2022
Economics
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the country opens up.
5 min read | December 2022
Central Banks
In this episode, we discuss this week's ECB and BOE meetings, and their views against a growth and inflation backdrop.
18 min video | December 2022
Annual Outlook
Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.
3 min read | December 2022
Economics
Our early warning model of EM exchange rate crises shows Egypt, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary are at risk
2 min read | November 2022
Economics
With weak growth, higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and high leverage making a potent mix, hear from our economists as they discuss macro-financial vulnerabilities in Asia, zooming in on credit stress in South Korea and balance of payments concerns in Indonesia and the Philippines.
30 min podcast | November 2022
Central Banks
In this episode, we explore what the weak CPI number means for the Fed, markets, and a recap on the midterms elections
31 min video | November 2022
Economics
Asian economies are in a much better state today, more able and willing to tolerate currency depreciation, which can act as a shock absorber.
4 min read | October 2022
Economics
We continue to expect an imminent recession and look for an only muted rebound in real GDP growth during 2024
6 min read | October 2022
Central Banks
In this episode, we explore the recent moves in US markets, the softer US data and their Fed call.
27 min video | October 2022
Economics
A webinar with Mr. Ahmad Mukhtar, Senior Economist
60 min video | September 2022