Focused Thinking

Economics

Economics

China: A Major Step to Modernizing the PBoC’s Policymaking

Investors often find signals from China’s two-tier policy rate system perplexing. The Chinese central bank’s recent moves aim to streamline its policy rate framework, better guide market interest rates and improve liquidity management

2 min read | June 2025

Economics

Macro and Micro Evidence of the Tariff Impact

Evidence suggests US import frontloading is benefitting many Asian economies, especially in electronics, but soft data are signaling weakness ahead

2 min read | May 2025

Economics

US-China Trade Deal Only Slightly Improves US Economic Outlook

While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.

3 min read | May 2025

Economics

US: Forecasting the Tariff Impact on Inflation

The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.

4 min read | May 2025

Economics

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

1 min read | May 2025

Economics

Impact of the US Tariff Shock

Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world

5 min read | April 2025

Economics

Liberation Day Tariff Policy Triggers Economic Forecast Revisions

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term

3 min read | April 2025