259 search results for: Outlook

Central Banks

What's on the Horizon for the Global Economy?

Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2025 by region.

3 min read | November 2025

Economics

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

0 min read | November 2025

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: A Concentrated Recovery

Tariffs will soon begin to bite, impacting exports and investment, but strong demand for artificial intelligence and a memory supercycle should power a concentrated recovery

4 min read | October 2025

Economics

China: A Major Step to Modernizing the PBoC’s Policymaking

Investors often find signals from China’s two-tier policy rate system perplexing. The Chinese central bank’s recent moves aim to streamline its policy rate framework, better guide market interest rates and improve liquidity management

2 min read | June 2025

Economics

Macro and Micro Evidence of the Tariff Impact

Evidence suggests US import frontloading is benefitting many Asian economies, especially in electronics, but soft data are signaling weakness ahead

2 min read | May 2025

Economics

US-China Trade Deal Only Slightly Improves US Economic Outlook

While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.

3 min read | May 2025

Economics

US: Forecasting the Tariff Impact on Inflation

The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.

4 min read | May 2025

Economics

Impact of the US Tariff Shock

Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world

5 min read | April 2025

Economics

Liberation Day Tariff Policy Triggers Economic Forecast Revisions

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term

3 min read | April 2025

Economics

Asia: Low Inflation is Here to Stay

Disinflation is underway in Asia, with inflation falling within central bank targets across most countries.

3 min read | March 2025

Central Banks

How Trump’s Tariffs May Impact European Growth

US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.

4 min read | February 2025

Annual Outlook

US 2025 Outlook: Trump’s Policies to Shape the Path Ahead

The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.

9 min read | January 2025

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2025 Outlook – Shifting from Inflation to Growth

The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy

8 min read | December 2024

Annual Outlook

Japan Macro Outlook 2025

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the market returns to normal

4 min read | December 2024

Economics

The second wave of shocks in China

The shift by local governments from “helping hands” to “grabbing hands” should be taken seriously.

4 min read | September 2024

Central Banks

China Investor Forum: The Global Economic Outlook

We have seen an overall slowdown in long-term GDP growth across different global economies in the last 15-20 years and, in our long-term view, this trajectory will continue.

6 min read | September 2024

Economics

China’s increasing role in China+1

As economies diversify their supply chains to mitigate concentration risk, China has itself been busy expanding its manufacturing capabilities overseas.

4 min read | September 2024

Technology

Battery Revolution

Xavier Barbaro is CEO of Neoen, a renewables producer. Xavier tells Nomura Greentech that he is accelerating the roll out of battery storage as the next revolution in the green energy transition.

3 min read | July 2024

Volatility

The Rise of Algo Trading in FX Markets

Calmer FX markets, liquidity fragmentation and the legacy of the pandemic are among the factors fuelling a new wave of algo usage.

3 min read | June 2024

Economics

Private credit can provide the most compelling opportunities in Asia

Investor interest in private credit in Asia has grown substantially over the last couple of years and private credit providers with an integrated and holistic offering, and ability to serve clients across jurisdictions and their credit lifecycle, will have an edge.

4 min read | May 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Taylor rule estimates for Asia

A rules-based framework to project the trajectory of central bank policy rates suggests less easing than our forecasts in Korea and risks of deeper cuts in Thailand and China.

3 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

Europe 2024 Outlook – Will Inflation Get Back To Target?

We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.

4 min read | December 2023

Economics

Europe – Heading Over the Recession Precipice

We now expect the Euro Area and UK to fall into recession. The latest survey data have been particularly weak, and lags in monetary policy, rising bankruptcies, plummeting demand for lending, and a poor global backdrop, all suggest it is only a matter of time until a recession materialises.

4 min read | September 2023

Economics

Asia’s time to shine

Asia, currently the fastest-growing economic region, has always been a land of opportunity with significant scope for economic development. So the pertinent question is not “why Asia?”, but “why Asia now?”

5 min read | June 2023

Sustainability

ESG360 - Cyberattack: The Growing Threat for ESG Investors

The rapid increase in networking and digitalization in our daily work patterns has increased the cyberattack surface available for criminals to exploit. With cyberattacks growing in both frequency and severity, we discuss the increasing threat for ESG investors.

19 min video | March 2023

Sustainability

Why Cybersecurity Is the Biggest Hidden ESG Risk

Cybersecurity is fast becoming the top global risk by impact and likelihood along with climate change and geopolitical conflict. In response, investors need an efficient model to integrate cybersecurity into their investment decisions.

4 min read | March 2023

Economics

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: This Time Is Different

With the ECB far from done on raising interest rates and government debt levels higher than they were before the last sovereign debt crisis, this is an issue at the forefront of many investors’ and no doubt central bankers’ minds.

3 min read | March 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly

We raise our 2023 GDP growth projections slightly, but a services-driven recovery in China and the US, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not as positive for Asia.

3 min read | February 2023

Economics

How Far Could UK House Prices Fall?

We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.

3 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2023 Outlook – Will Sovereign Debt Risk be a Theme of 2023?

Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.

4 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Rolling with the Punches

Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.

3 min read | December 2022

Central Banks

MacroBrew - The BOJ’s Policy Stance

We discuss the BOJ’s policy stance, the path forward and the “noise” around monetary policy as global inflationary pressures build.

44 min podcast | January 2022

Economics

Asia Outlook 2022: As the Tide Turns

We are cautious on Asia’s economic outlook in 2022 as the emergence of the Omicron variant reminds us that the pandemic is far from over.

2 min read | December 2021

Central Banks

MacroBrew - The Covid 19 Endgame

The endgame of Covid-19 leaves economists in a challenging position; in many ways, the outlook is more complicated now than it was at the onset of the pandemic.

28 min video | November 2021

Economics

The Covid-19 Endgame: Learning to Live With it

The endgame of Covid-19 leaves economists in a challenging position when making long-term forecasts. In many ways, the outlook is more complicated now than it was at the onset of the pandemic.

5 min read | November 2021

Economics

The “Troubled Ten” in EM

We warn of ten economies that appear most vulnerable: Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Hungary, Romania, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines.

2 min read | September 2021

Central Banks

Is the ECB calling the end of the pandemic?

The ECB looks set to conclude its pandemic response program (PEPP) and step up its asset purchasing program (APP) in its stead.

5 min read | September 2021

Economics

Biden’s Green Shift and its Impact on Asia

A pillar of US President Joe Biden’s bid for the presidency was the radical reform of US environmental policy, but what will it mean for Asia?

3 min read | January 2021

Central Banks

2021 Equities Outlook: ...it is more about 2022

In 2021, investors will likely focus on an eventual 2022 renormalization driven by potentially even better vaccines/therapeutics to help contain the spread of the virus.

17 min video | December 2020

Sustainability

Social Impact Investing Looks Set to Rise in ASEAN

ASEAN countries have made significant advances in reducing poverty and improving human development but improvements in gender equality and social mobility have been slow.

4 min read | December 2020

Economics

Asia under Bidenomics

Following the recent US elections, we explore the likely impact of Biden’s policies on Asia’s economies.

10 min read | November 2020

Economics

Why have European retail sales recovered so strongly?

Since lockdowns began to be lifted different sectors across Europe’s large economies have performed in different ways. But retailing – almost universally across developed markets – has rebounded at a far quicker pace.

3 min read | September 2020

Central Banks

The world post Covid-19

The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.

3 min read | July 2020

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Asia: ESG Perspectives

With Covid-19 being a common factor affecting the economy across industries, we also take a look at its impact on capital markets and what that means for sustainable finance.

4 min read | June 2020

Technology

Nomura Investment Forum Asia: Asia Healthcare Post Covid-19

Unsurprisingly, the hospital sector is one of the industries that has been most impacted by the Covid-19 outbreak. Our analysts specializing in this sector tell us how countries such as China, ASEAN and India have been dealing with the pandemic and what can be expected in the future.

3 min read | June 2020

Economics

The Global Economic Impact of Covid-19

Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.

3 min read | April 2020

Economics

Upturn in global IT cycle and the Japanese economy

Attention is focusing on the global IT cycle following the launch of commercial 5G services. Global semiconductor sales bottomed out in 2019 H1 and recovered in the summer.

4 min read | February 2020

Economics

Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

5 min video | January 2020

Central Banks

UK Outlook 2020

How will the UK fair amongst some Brexit clarity, will 2020 be the year of recovery?

1 min read | January 2020

Economics

Euro Area Outlook 2020

What's in store for the Euro Area as we move into 2020?

2 min video | January 2020

Central Banks

India: A Difficult Climb Ahead

Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.

2 min video | November 2019

Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

Economics

Is the US on the verge of a recession?

With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?

4 min read | September 2019

Central Banks

Japan: conditions for more BOJ easing and implications

Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?

3 min read | July 2019

Central Banks

Asia Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2019

The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.

3 min video | July 2019

Central Banks

Global midyear economic outlook 2019

Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.

5 min read | July 2019

Focused thinking

Search

| February 2019

Emerging Markets

Spearheading game-changing East-West M&A deals as Asia’s leading investment bank

Asian M&A shows no sign of abating — even despite the fluctuating geopolitical environment. As the only global investment bank anchored in Asia, Nomura is strongly positioned to advise companies aiming to close significant, value-accretive transactions that cut across borders and jurisdictions.

2 min read | January 2019

Economics

Equity Markets in 2019: Soft Power Matters

As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.

2 min video | December 2018

Emerging Markets

Asia FX and rates outlook 2019

We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.

0 min video | December 2018

Central Banks

India Outlook 2019: Elephant to Lose Stamina

Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.

1 min video | December 2018

Economics

Korea Outlook 2019: Expect a Counter-Cyclical BOK Policy

We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.

2 min video | December 2018

Economics

ASEAN outlook 2019: split into two camps

As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.

2 min video | December 2018

Economics

China outlook 2019: after winter comes spring

As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.

4 min video | December 2018

Economics

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.

3 min video | December 2018

Focused thinking

New directions: diversification of alternative risk premia strategies

Despite a difficult year, investors remain keen to use alternative risk premia strategies. However, current approaches may be less diversified than they appear, especially given cross-contamination in cash equity factors. A more diversified approach making use of fixed income has led to better returns and a more resilient portfolio

2 min read | December 2018

Volatility

New directions: diversification of alternative risk premia strategies

Despite a difficult year, investors remain keen to use alternative risk premia strategies. However, current approaches may be less diversified than they appear, especially given cross-contamination in cash equity factors. A more diversified approach making use of fixed income has led to better returns and a more resilient portfolio

1 min read | December 2018

Central Banks

Getting to know the rule setters: gauging how Asia’s central banks set policy

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.

5 min read | November 2018

Economics

Thailand: a fragile investment cycle

The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.

2 min read | September 2018

Technology

Asia Pacific technology: bigger wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution

While the first three industrial revolutions transformed our world, the fourth industrial revolution encompasses breakthroughs in robotics, AI, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the Internet of Things (IoT), 3D printing and autonomous vehicles.

2 min read | June 2018

Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018

We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.

2 min video | June 2018

Economics

Brazil: What is currently priced in? (Presidential election edition)

Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.

2 min read | May 2018

Emerging Markets

Where are the risks in an EM snapback?

Four potential events this year could lead to an emerging markets pricing snapback: a US bond market selloff, the global unwind of quantitative easing, a China growth slowdown and the risk of a trade war.

3 min read | April 2018

Economics

What is fuelling trade in global emerging markets?

Trade has played a critical role in the development of emerging market (EM) countries. But as we discuss in our video, the increase in protectionist rhetoric in recent years threatens to stall or even reverse globalization. How will EM countries cope?

2 min read | April 2018

Economics

How is technology transforming global emerging markets?

Technology has transformed the global economy in the last decade and made it easier to transfer knowledge. Now it’s giving emerging markets a competitive advantage, allowing them in some cases to be more agile and innovative than developed economies.

1 min video | April 2018

Focused thinking

Who would bear the brunt of increased US protectionism?

In this study, our economists assess the impact of US trade protectionism, centering on China. The goal is to examine which countries and industries would ultimately bear the brunt should the US step up trade protectionism.

1 min read | March 2018

Economics

Deleveraging in a political milieu: Asia’s elephant faces a pivotal year

Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.

3 min read | March 2018

Economics

Global Emerging Markets Seminar 2018

In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.

1 min video | February 2018

Economics

Time for the National Pension Service to escape “home bias”

The National Pension Service (NPS) is Korea’s social security reserve fund. It was created in 1988 to support the retirement benefits of its citizens. Asset allocation ultimately determines the long-term investment performance of any pension fund. We explore five reasons why the NPS will become more ambitious in accelerating its allocation shift to overseas assets, particularly equities.

3 min read | February 2018

Economics

Outlook 2018: US

With a new Federal Reserve chairman set to take office early in 2018, a Republic Congress at the helm and the future of free trade agreements and healthcare up in the air, what can investors expect in 2018?

2 min video | December 2017

Economics

Asia Economic Outlook 2018

A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and low interest rates could stretch into 2018, underpinned by a durable global tech upcycle, continued quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and still-loose regional macro policies.

2 min read | December 2017

Economics

Outlook 2018: Asia

What will China do to avoid following the Japanese bubble in the 80s and 90s? What level of US protectionism can we expect on Asian economies in 2018?

5 min video | December 2017

Economics

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2017

We held our 14th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 6 to 9, 2017 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers in a highlight video from the conference.

6 min video | August 2017

Economics

Is the US economy not as dynamic as it used to be?

Beneath the surface, the US economy has become far less dynamic and less responsive over the past several decades, placing downward pressure on productivity, wages, and rates. In this podcast, Mark Doms, Senior Economist at Nomura explains why.

11 min podcast | August 2017

Economics

The tranquil path of Asian inflation

In their recent ‘Asia Special Report’, our economists expect a decoupling from the Fed and no rate hikes until H2 2018. They explain this by using three proprietary tools to help improve ability to forecast headline and core inflation for 10 Asian countries.

3 min read | August 2017