Economics
Weak US nonfarm payrolls and a not too-hot CPI report have led Nomura economists to bring forward the timing of the next Fed rate cut to September from December
4 min read | August 2025
Focused thinking
China’s auto market is poised for further growth amid intensifying competition; the US market faces tariff-related challenges but automakers are adapting; while prospects are mixed in Indonesia, Thailand, and India
4 min read | August 2025
Central Banks
Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2025 by region.
3 min read | August 2025
Rates
The impact of policy rates on bank lending-deposit rates and credit growth confirms that the RBI’s easing cycle is not over, say Nomura economists
3 min read | July 2025
Economics
Soaring tech and sluggish non-tech exports have led to a two-speed recovery in Asia. As front-loading effects fade, Nomura economists see another fork in the road
3 min read | July 2025
Economics
Nomura economists say the inevitable payback from China’s trade-in program and new restrictions on alcohol and catering could drag retail sales growth in H2
3 min read | July 2025
Rates
Is the US dollar undergoing a regime change and is it now set for a period of structural decline?
3 min read | July 2025
Economics
Nomura research examines key economic indicators, navigating between optimism and caution
2 min read | June 2025
Economics
A New Frontier in US-China Tensions
2 min read | June 2025
Economics
Investors often find signals from China’s two-tier policy rate system perplexing. The Chinese central bank’s recent moves aim to streamline its policy rate framework, better guide market interest rates and improve liquidity management
2 min read | June 2025
Economics
An agreement similar to the 1985 Plaza Accord is the right solution to protect free trade
3 min read | June 2025
Economics
Mick Mulvaney, former Acting Chief of Staff to President Trump, decodes his thinking on everything from tariffs to trade and the dollar
2 min read | June 2025
Economics
Amid the tariff wars, Nomura economists elaborate on their outlook for major global economies at Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2025
6 min read | June 2025
Economics
Pursuing trade talks with the US will likely prove difficult while China appears to be pulling all stops to strengthen ties with the region
4 min read | June 2025
Economics
Expect rate cuts across the globe for the rest of 2025
3 min read | May 2025
Economics
Evidence suggests US import frontloading is benefitting many Asian economies, especially in electronics, but soft data are signaling weakness ahead
2 min read | May 2025
Economics
While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.
3 min read | May 2025
Economics
The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.
4 min read | May 2025
Economics
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
0 min read | May 2025
Economics
Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world
5 min read | April 2025
Economics
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term
3 min read | April 2025
Economics
Disinflation is underway in Asia, with inflation falling within central bank targets across most countries.
3 min read | March 2025
Central Banks
US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.
4 min read | February 2025
Economics
In an interconnected world, the impact from higher US tariffs can sometimes ricochet beyond the target country
5 min read | February 2025
Economics
The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone agreement was signed on January 7
2 min read | January 2025
Economics
Despite low inflation and soft growth, currency weakness is constraining some Asian central banks’ ability to cut policy rates
5 min read | January 2025
Japan in focus
The emergence of generative AI represents a springboard for economic growth and digital transformation for Japan.
3 min read | January 2025
Annual Outlook
The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.
9 min read | January 2025
Annual Outlook
The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy
8 min read | December 2024
Economics
Companies in Japan have been on a long march towards becoming technology leaders
3 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the market returns to normal
4 min read | December 2024
Annual Outlook
Turbulence ahead for Asia from Trumponomics, slowing exports and a weaker China
4 min read | December 2024
Economics
After China’s stimulus blitz, we revisit China’s spillovers on other Asian economies.
5 min read | October 2024
Economics
Existing home sales have recovered to pre-correction levels, with home prices bottoming out in lower-tier cities as China’s real estate sector undergoes an L-shaped recovery.
4 min read | October 2024
Economics
The highly volatile market environment calls for effective stock selection based on balancing fundamentals with momentum.
5 min read | October 2024
Economics
After a year of low underlying inflation, there is both scope and a need for policy recalibration
2 min read | October 2024
Economics
The shift by local governments from “helping hands” to “grabbing hands” should be taken seriously.
4 min read | September 2024
Central Banks
We have seen an overall slowdown in long-term GDP growth across different global economies in the last 15-20 years and, in our long-term view, this trajectory will continue.
6 min read | September 2024
Economics
As economies diversify their supply chains to mitigate concentration risk, China has itself been busy expanding its manufacturing capabilities overseas.
4 min read | September 2024
Technology
The prevalence of extreme weather events disconnecting businesses from the grid is leading some to seek alternatives such as distributed energy solutions
3 min read | July 2024
Technology
Xavier Barbaro is CEO of Neoen, a renewables producer. Xavier tells Nomura Greentech that he is accelerating the roll out of battery storage as the next revolution in the green energy transition.
3 min read | July 2024
Economics
Midstream energy infrastructure, space exploration, electric vehicles and health tech are themes of the future that can potentially enhance absolute returns.
4 min read | July 2024
Central Banks
It is becoming more difficult to reduce the fiscal deficit, as government debt continues to climb and efforts to increase revenue through taxes remain stagnant.
5 min read | July 2024
Economics
Pressure growing across region as West imposes more tariffs on Beijing.
5 min read | July 2024
Central Banks
Emerging market buyers have wrested control of the gold market from the West, said Mr. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist, World Gold Council.
4 min read | July 2024
Economics
India will see economic growth accelerate over the next decade with increased participation from sub-national governments and the private sector, said the country’s Chief Economic Advisor.
3 min read | July 2024
Volatility
Calmer FX markets, liquidity fragmentation and the legacy of the pandemic are among the factors fuelling a new wave of algo usage.
3 min read | June 2024
Economics
Economies around the world are recovering from the pandemic shock at varying tempos.
7 min read | June 2024
Economics
Investor interest in private credit in Asia has grown substantially over the last couple of years and private credit providers with an integrated and holistic offering, and ability to serve clients across jurisdictions and their credit lifecycle, will have an edge.
4 min read | May 2024
Economics
Higher immigration does not fully account for recent labor market resilience
2 min read | May 2024
Economics
Don’t paint the entire region with the same brush. Growth divergence is likely, based on cyclical and structural outlooks.
4 min read | April 2024
Economics
Leading indicators point to a cyclical improvement in the open economies, but we expect higher investment trends in India, the Philippines and Indonesia.
4 min read | March 2024
Japan in focus
Overseas investor interest in Japan’s resurgent growth story is boosting demand for equity derivatives on undervalued stocks as ongoing corporate governance reforms take the market higher.
3 min read | February 2024
Economics
A rules-based framework to project the trajectory of central bank policy rates suggests less easing than our forecasts in Korea and risks of deeper cuts in Thailand and China.
3 min read | January 2024
Annual Outlook
US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.
8 min read | January 2024
Annual Outlook
We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.
4 min read | December 2023
Annual Outlook
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon after a relatively strong year.
4 min read | December 2023
Economics
After synchronized disinflation so far this year, we see more divergence in the inflation outlook for Asian economies. We identify the hot, warm and cold candidates.
4 min read | November 2023
Economics
China’s consumers are spending differently after the pandemic, turning selective on quality and trading down, said Shaun Rein of China Market Research Group.
3 min read | October 2023
Japan in focus
Corporate pricing behavior in Japan continues to adjust in positive ways, with growing price-setting flexibility leading to greater resilience against deflation.
3 min read | October 2023
Economics
Asia’s goods cycle has bottomed out and is headed higher over the next two quarters.
3 min read | October 2023
Economics
We are cautious on the economic outlook and expect global growth to slow to 2.0% in 2024. CPI inflation should continue easing into next year.
7 min read | October 2023
Japan in focus
A confluence of factors from strong domestic demand and price hikes to increased foreign investor interest, are likely to boost Japan stocks as bigger profits continue through 2024.
4 min read | September 2023
Economics
We now expect the Euro Area and UK to fall into recession. The latest survey data have been particularly weak, and lags in monetary policy, rising bankruptcies, plummeting demand for lending, and a poor global backdrop, all suggest it is only a matter of time until a recession materialises.
4 min read | September 2023
Economics
China’s share in Asian exports is slowing and Asian lenders’ exposure to China is plateauing.
4 min read | September 2023
Central Banks
BOJ makes concessions for the uncertainty around inflation; Apr–Jun 2024 looks like a likely time for an end to YCC and NIRP
5 min read | August 2023
Economics
Singapore’s deputy prime minister believes that economic fundamentals in Asia makes for a great opportunity when balanced with prudent risk management.
4 min read | July 2023
Economics
India’s Chief Economic Advisor is optimistic about the country’s recovery, according to a keynote at the 2023 Nomura Investor Forum Asia.
3 min read | June 2023
Economics
Asia, currently the fastest-growing economic region, has always been a land of opportunity with significant scope for economic development. So the pertinent question is not “why Asia?”, but “why Asia now?”
5 min read | June 2023
Central Banks
In this episode of our MacroBrew fireside podcast series, we talk with George Moran from the European Economics team about Norway and Sweden with their currencies trading near multi-year lows.
3 min read | May 2023
Central Banks
Four highlights of the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting; Nomura’s main scenario pictures a YCC revision in or after June 2023 MPM
3 min read | May 2023
Technology
Regional competition to produce electric vehicle batteries will remain tight.
3 min read | April 2023
Sustainability
The rapid increase in networking and digitalization in our daily work patterns has increased the cyberattack surface available for criminals to exploit. With cyberattacks growing in both frequency and severity, we discuss the increasing threat for ESG investors.
19 min video | March 2023
Sustainability
Cybersecurity is fast becoming the top global risk by impact and likelihood along with climate change and geopolitical conflict. In response, investors need an efficient model to integrate cybersecurity into their investment decisions.
4 min read | March 2023
Central Banks
Our Cross-Asset Macro Strategist discusses whether the strong US data is a macro game changer.
42 min video | March 2023
Economics
With the ECB far from done on raising interest rates and government debt levels higher than they were before the last sovereign debt crisis, this is an issue at the forefront of many investors’ and no doubt central bankers’ minds.
3 min read | March 2023
Economics
We raise our 2023 GDP growth projections slightly, but a services-driven recovery in China and the US, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not as positive for Asia.
3 min read | February 2023
Economics
Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.
3 min read | February 2023
Sustainability
Vineet Mittal is Chairman of Avaada Group, a leading Indian renewables company. Vineet explains to Nomura Greentech how his clean energy plans can help lift people out of poverty.
5 min read | February 2023
Economics
Our analysis suggests developed market economies are more at risk of hard landings this time than emerging market economies, a break from the usual pattern.
3 min read | February 2023
Economics
We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.
3 min read | January 2023
Annual Outlook
This is the final part of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore the year ahead for policy and regulation.
15 min video | January 2023
Annual Outlook
This is the first of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore what this year has in store for green deals.
29 min video | January 2023
Central Banks
In this episode, we discuss European growth and the ECB policy outlook.
27 min video | January 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators
12 min read | January 2023
Annual Outlook
Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.
4 min read | January 2023
Central Banks
In this episode of our Fireside Chats podcast series, we talk with Rob Subbaraman, Global Head of Macro Research, and Sonal Varma, Chief Economist India & AEJ, on the 2023 outlook.
33 min video | December 2022
Economics
80 min video | December 2022
Economics
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the country opens up.
5 min read | December 2022
Annual Outlook
Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.
3 min read | December 2022
Economics
We continue to expect an imminent recession and look for an only muted rebound in real GDP growth during 2024
6 min read | October 2022
Economics
A webinar with Mr. Ahmad Mukhtar, Senior Economist
60 min video | September 2022
Central Banks
Our European Economics team discuss what the hawkish turn from the European Central Bank means for the Euro Area and risks around the outlook.
26 min video | September 2022
Economics
Asia’s growth cycle is nearing an inflection point. It’s a tale of an interrupted recovery in the region, even as we expect the US and Europe to slip into mild recessions soon.
4 min read | September 2022
Economics
In addition to the US, we now expect recessions in the euro area, UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada
3 min read | July 2022
Economics
The Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability will likely push the economy into a downturn
7 min read | June 2022
Central Banks
The Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability will likely push the economy into a downturn
33 min podcast | June 2022
Emerging Markets
With a valuation cushion, Asian stocks are relatively insulated from a US stock sell-off
5 min read | June 2022
Economics
Our global economists share their thoughts on the state of Asia’s underlying inflation and what it means for the Macro outlook.
26 min video | May 2022
Central Banks
We discuss our US inflation outlook and Fed’s continuing hawkish pivot.
71 min podcast | April 2022
Sustainability
The results of Nomura Securities’ December 2021 Individual Investor Survey reveal that Japan retail investors are increasingly interested in ESG-aligned financial products.
3 min read | April 2022
Economics
Just as India was crawling its way out of the pandemic, the conflict in Europe, a hawkish Fed and China shocks have reignited macro uncertainties.
5 min read | April 2022
Central Banks
Our US economists share their thoughts for US growth, inflation and the big call on the Fed meeting.
32 min video | March 2022
Central Banks
We discuss impact of Covid-19 and fiscal response, outlook for fiscal sustainability in Korea and likely fiscal policy scenarios after the Presidential Elections.
58 min podcast | February 2022
Central Banks
Our economists and desk strategist discuss their thoughts for the ECB, the BOE, the RBA and rates markets.
32 min video | February 2022
Central Banks
Our economists and desk strategist discuss their thoughts for the ECB, the BOE, the RBA and rates markets.
28 min video | February 2022
Central Banks
The impact of Covid-19 on PGG varies across countries with emerging markets seem to be recovering from the pandemic at a slower pace than the advanced economies and thus appear more vulnerable to scarring effects and lower global potential GDP growth.
28 min video | February 2022
Central Banks
We discuss the BOJ’s policy stance, the path forward and the “noise” around monetary policy as global inflationary pressures build.
44 min podcast | January 2022
Rates
We discuss key events and themes to track in 2022, and how they might affect our views.
57 min video | January 2022
Economics
We discuss our expectations from the FOMC and views on USD in the coming months.
27 min video | January 2022
Economics
Our Japan Macro and FX strategy team share their thoughts for Japanese markets in the year ahead
26 min video | January 2022
Central Banks
Covid-19 has exacerbated income inequality, which could slowly build to big surprises in politics and as a result dramatically impact markets.
28 min video | January 2022
Economics
We expect strong but slowing growth, elevated inflation and accelerated Fed policy normalization
6 min read | January 2022
Economics
High inflation has central banks feeling the heat, but by late 2022 we see a very different backdrop, with stagnation a bigger risk than stagflation.
4 min read | December 2021
Focused thinking
Gareth Nicholson, CIO and Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, International Wealth Management, shares the top seven asset allocation themes going into 2022.
28 min video | December 2021
Central Banks
Our strategists share their top FX and rates views in 2022
30 min podcast | December 2021
Economics
Looking into 2022 - what to expect
60 min video | December 2021
Economics
We are cautious on Asia’s economic outlook in 2022 as the emergence of the Omicron variant reminds us that the pandemic is far from over.
2 min read | December 2021
Economics
Nomura’s Japan experts outline what’s on the horizon as the country’s economy approaches the endgame of the Covid-19 pandemic
3 min read | December 2021
Central Banks
The endgame of Covid-19 leaves economists in a challenging position; in many ways, the outlook is more complicated now than it was at the onset of the pandemic.
28 min video | November 2021
Economics
The endgame of Covid-19 leaves economists in a challenging position when making long-term forecasts. In many ways, the outlook is more complicated now than it was at the onset of the pandemic.
5 min read | November 2021
Emerging Markets
In this Macrobrew@Nomura session we discuss China's outlook.
60 min video | October 2021
Volatility
Inflation expected to go higher in the near future, but will it last?
28 min podcast | October 2021
Economics
We warn of ten economies that appear most vulnerable: Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Hungary, Romania, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines.
2 min read | September 2021
Japan in focus
Outlook for Japan and markets ahead of the election.
30 min podcast | September 2021
Central Banks
The ECB looks set to conclude its pandemic response program (PEPP) and step up its asset purchasing program (APP) in its stead.
5 min read | September 2021
Emerging Markets
An outlook for the Philippines amid the latest Covid-19 wave, with guest speaker Benjamin Diokno, BSP Governor.
60 min video | September 2021
Volatility
China’s curbs on the property sector likely mean sacrificing short-term stability, but could pave the way for Beijing to pursue long-term growth
28 min podcast | August 2021
Economics
Is China approaching a slowdown?
30 min podcast | August 2021
Economics
The UK's outlook following mass easing of Covid-19 restrictions.
27 min podcast | July 2021
Central Banks
Most measures of inflation expectations remain at a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) framework
3 min read | June 2021
Emerging Markets
We expect strong earnings recovery this year for Asia ex-Japan equities and double-digit earnings growth in 2022.
2 min read | June 2021
Central Banks
Commodities and inflation are rising, how will they respond across the pond?
29 min podcast | June 2021
Economics
China, which staged a sharp rebound in economic growth could face downward pressure into the second half of the year. Japan's recovery hinges on the acceleration of its vaccination program.
3 min read | June 2021
Economics
Taking stock and looking ahead
4 min read | June 2021
Japan in focus
We discuss the impact of this recent wave of Covid-19 infections.
35 min podcast | May 2021
Technology
The Global semi-conductor chip shortage and impact to markets.
26 min podcast | May 2021
Economics
Outlook on China's North-South divide.
30 min podcast | May 2021
Economics
An outlook for the UK's housing market, weighing the positives against the negatives
9 min read | April 2021
Economics
The surge in Covid-19, and it's impact on India's outlook
34 min podcast | April 2021
Central Banks
Which EM central banks are more at risk of falling behind the curve and of greater fiscal dominance?
65 min podcast | April 2021
Economics
What are Biden's plans for growth this year?
22 min podcast | April 2021
Emerging Markets
Outlook for ASEAN economies.
27 min podcast | March 2021
Volatility
We see two key longer-term factors supporting RMB appreciation.
30 min podcast | March 2021
Economics
What can we learn from Australia and New Zealand on life without Covid-19.
31 min podcast | February 2021
Economics
Vaccine rollout, pandemic support and infrastructure investment will likely be top priorities
5 min read | January 2021
Emerging Markets
Why are Asian economies going to be the outperformers of 2021?
3 min podcast | January 2021
Emerging Markets
Under a potentially strong recovery, life insurers and banks in China are poised to enjoy the tailwinds of rising market interest rates.
2 min read | January 2021
Economics
A pillar of US President Joe Biden’s bid for the presidency was the radical reform of US environmental policy, but what will it mean for Asia?
3 min read | January 2021
Economics
What does 2021 hold for the USA?
3 min podcast | January 2021
Economics
The still-raging pandemic produced a unique recession in 2020, but what does the future hold?
4 min read | December 2020
Central Banks
In 2021, investors will likely focus on an eventual 2022 renormalization driven by potentially even better vaccines/therapeutics to help contain the spread of the virus.
17 min video | December 2020
Volatility
Given Biden's pledges to reform environmental policy what are the likely repercussions for the auto industry?
4 min read | December 2020
Central Banks
We are overall quite positive on the outlook for Asia in 2021, with an above consensus GDP growth rebound.
6 min read | December 2020
Sustainability
ASEAN countries have made significant advances in reducing poverty and improving human development but improvements in gender equality and social mobility have been slow.
4 min read | December 2020
Focused thinking
Our Global outlook for 2021.
39 min podcast | December 2020
Emerging Markets
What will 2021 mean for Asia's outlook?
30 min podcast | December 2020
Volatility
What will 2021 mean for FX markets?
28 min podcast | December 2020
Sustainability
Absence of clear standards makes analyzing the financial risk differential between green and brown assets challenging for financial institutions.
5 min read | December 2020
Central Banks
Student-led protests have resumed in Thailand, demanding constitutional changes and reforms to the monarchy.
3 min read | December 2020
Volatility
Will the UK be able to vaccinate itself against a weakening economy?
3 min read | November 2020
Emerging Markets
Is China becoming more self-sufficient?
3 min video | November 2020
Emerging Markets
How much of an impact are the recent protests having on the Thai Economy?
34 min video | November 2020
Economics
Following the recent US elections, we explore the likely impact of Biden’s policies on Asia’s economies.
10 min read | November 2020
Volatility
How are FX markets dealing with the recent volatility?
3 min podcast | November 2020
Economics
Our European Economics team, discuss the key lessons to be learnt from new Covid-19 outbreaks.
3 min podcast | October 2020
Emerging Markets
Is Indonesian 'helicopter money' keeping their economy aflight?
26 min podcast | October 2020
Economics
We talk with Robert Dent, from our US economics team, on the outlook for the US after the first TV debate.
17 min podcast | October 2020
Economics
In this webinar, we discuss recent major developments in Indonesia including lockdown measures re-imposed in Jakarta.
56 min video | September 2020
Economics
If Biden wins in November, he is likely to usher in a new set of US economic objectives and policies.
4 min read | September 2020
Japan in focus
With a change in leadership after the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, what's next for Japan?
17 min podcast | September 2020
Economics
Since lockdowns began to be lifted different sectors across Europe’s large economies have performed in different ways. But retailing – almost universally across developed markets – has rebounded at a far quicker pace.
3 min read | September 2020
Central Banks
Will the European Central Bank follow in the Fed’s footsteps and implement average inflation targeting?
5 min read | September 2020
Economics
Nomura forecasts real growth outpacing potential growth during normalization
2 min read | August 2020
Central Banks
The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.
3 min read | July 2020
Economics
The Chinese economy is still a long way away from a full recovery, and it is too early for the PBoC to reverse its stance on policy easing.
2 min read | July 2020
Economics
In our latest Fireside Chat episode we discuss the impact of the 2020 US Presidential election will have on our market outlook.
28 min podcast | June 2020
Technology
As with most other industries, the lockdowns imposed due to Covid-19 have resulted in a change in global commuting patterns. Is the worst behind us?
4 min read | June 2020
Economics
With Covid-19 being a common factor affecting the economy across industries, we also take a look at its impact on capital markets and what that means for sustainable finance.
4 min read | June 2020
Technology
Unsurprisingly, the hospital sector is one of the industries that has been most impacted by the Covid-19 outbreak. Our analysts specializing in this sector tell us how countries such as China, ASEAN and India have been dealing with the pandemic and what can be expected in the future.
3 min read | June 2020
Economics
During our virtual Nomura Investment Forum Asia conference this year, our equity strategists explain what the outlook of Asia equities will be in the near future.
2 min read | June 2020
Economics
During our virtual Nomura Investment Forum Asia conference this year, our economists explain what the global economy is going to look like in light of Covid-19 and other global events such as the United States election.
3 min read | June 2020
Volatility
Is mobility data the next tool in the fight against Covid-19?
18 min podcast | June 2020
Economics
Different ways to think about the contraction and the long road to recovery
4 min read | May 2020
Volatility
Craig Chan our Global Head of FX Strategy discusses what his thoughts are for the upcoming US Treasury FX report
9 min podcast | May 2020
Central Banks
Jordan Rochester and our Chief US Economist Lewis Alexander discuss how the FED intends on combating Covid-19
20 min podcast | April 2020
Economics
In this episode of our Fireside podcast series Jordan Rochester and our Chief China Economist Ting Lu discuss the outlook for China.
24 min podcast | April 2020
Economics
Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.
3 min read | April 2020
Central Banks
Japan's senior society facing severe economic cycle
3 min read | March 2020
Economics
Attention is focusing on the global IT cycle following the launch of commercial 5G services. Global semiconductor sales bottomed out in 2019 H1 and recovered in the summer.
4 min read | February 2020
Central Banks
Extending a long expansion
3 min read | February 2020
Economics
The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.
5 min video | January 2020
Central Banks
New year, new decade, new risks?
2 min read | January 2020
Central Banks
Global growth appears set to bottom out. However, we expect 2020 to be a year of global growth consolidation than a full-fledged recovery.
17 min video | January 2020
Central Banks
How will the UK fair amongst some Brexit clarity, will 2020 be the year of recovery?
1 min read | January 2020
Central Banks
Will this New Year mean a New Brexit?
2 min video | January 2020
Economics
What's in store for the Euro Area as we move into 2020?
2 min video | January 2020
Economics
5 min video | December 2019
Economics
We expect Japan to remain on a path of “steady but slow” economic growth in 2020.
1 min video | December 2019
Central Banks
Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.
2 min video | November 2019
Central Banks
Expectations are growing that the BOJ will decide to further loosen monetary policy.
5 min read | October 2019
Economics
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
Economics
With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?
4 min read | September 2019
Central Banks
Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?
3 min read | July 2019
Central Banks
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
Central Banks
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
5 min read | July 2019
Economics
Our main scenario is that recession and additional policy response will be avoided
3 min read | June 2019
Economics
While household debt outstrips incomes across the country, is the UK unusual among its peers?
2 min read | April 2019
Central Banks
2 min video | April 2019
Economics
Is good economics also good politics? It could be argued that the experience of the past two decades suggests an inverted-U (a frown) relationship between the degree of populism and the electoral success.
2 min read | March 2019
Volatility
We’ve seen the market shift regimes where growth is heading sub-trend. The lack of policy maker ammunition may trigger more unconventional policies
1 min read | February 2019
Volatility
Our European Outlook looks at what will drive recovery in Europe in 2019.
3 min video | February 2019
Volatility
Our UK 2019 outlook looks at how the UK still remains attractive to international investors despite Brexit uncertainty.
1 min read | February 2019
Central Banks
Many are wondering whether Australia’s luck is running out, amid slower global and regional growth, tightening financial conditions and falling local house prices.
2 min read | January 2019
Emerging Markets
Asian M&A shows no sign of abating — even despite the fluctuating geopolitical environment. As the only global investment bank anchored in Asia, Nomura is strongly positioned to advise companies aiming to close significant, value-accretive transactions that cut across borders and jurisdictions.
2 min read | January 2019
Focused thinking
As we move swiftly into 2019, see the most read articles from 2018.
1 min read | January 2019
Central Banks
The recovery in Japan's economic activity is still rolling on, but the growth momentum is likely to weaken
2 min read | January 2019
Technology
Due to various macro and micro issues (US-China trade war, US fed aggressive rate hike, sluggish IT demand, Intel CPU shortage), there has been a slowdown in demand from 2H18
4 min read | January 2019
Economics
As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.
2 min video | December 2018
Emerging Markets
We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.
0 min video | December 2018
Central Banks
Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.
1 min video | December 2018
Economics
We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.
4 min video | December 2018
Economics
Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.
3 min video | December 2018
Focused thinking
Despite a difficult year, investors remain keen to use alternative risk premia strategies. However, current approaches may be less diversified than they appear, especially given cross-contamination in cash equity factors. A more diversified approach making use of fixed income has led to better returns and a more resilient portfolio
2 min read | December 2018
Volatility
Despite a difficult year, investors remain keen to use alternative risk premia strategies. However, current approaches may be less diversified than they appear, especially given cross-contamination in cash equity factors. A more diversified approach making use of fixed income has led to better returns and a more resilient portfolio
1 min read | December 2018
Central Banks
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.
5 min read | November 2018
Japan in focus
How X-Elio completed Japan’s largest solar sale – and what it says about the sector’s evolution
4 min read | November 2018
Economics
The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.
2 min read | September 2018
Economics
Issuance hit a record high in 2017 and conditions remain supportive for new issues.
4 min read | August 2018
Volatility
Nomura’s structuring apportioned risk between the various counterparties while ensuring that there was a simple contract to present to the Chinese regulators.
3 min read | August 2018
Technology
While the first three industrial revolutions transformed our world, the fourth industrial revolution encompasses breakthroughs in robotics, AI, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the Internet of Things (IoT), 3D printing and autonomous vehicles.
2 min read | June 2018
Central Banks
We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.
2 min video | June 2018
Economics
Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.
2 min read | May 2018
Emerging Markets
Four potential events this year could lead to an emerging markets pricing snapback: a US bond market selloff, the global unwind of quantitative easing, a China growth slowdown and the risk of a trade war.
3 min read | April 2018
Economics
Trade has played a critical role in the development of emerging market (EM) countries. But as we discuss in our video, the increase in protectionist rhetoric in recent years threatens to stall or even reverse globalization. How will EM countries cope?
2 min read | April 2018
Economics
Technology has transformed the global economy in the last decade and made it easier to transfer knowledge. Now it’s giving emerging markets a competitive advantage, allowing them in some cases to be more agile and innovative than developed economies.
1 min video | April 2018
Focused thinking
In this study, our economists assess the impact of US trade protectionism, centering on China. The goal is to examine which countries and industries would ultimately bear the brunt should the US step up trade protectionism.
1 min read | March 2018
Economics
Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.
3 min read | March 2018
Economics
In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.
1 min video | February 2018
Economics
The National Pension Service (NPS) is Korea’s social security reserve fund. It was created in 1988 to support the retirement benefits of its citizens. Asset allocation ultimately determines the long-term investment performance of any pension fund. We explore five reasons why the NPS will become more ambitious in accelerating its allocation shift to overseas assets, particularly equities.
3 min read | February 2018
Economics
With a new Federal Reserve chairman set to take office early in 2018, a Republic Congress at the helm and the future of free trade agreements and healthcare up in the air, what can investors expect in 2018?
2 min video | December 2017
Economics
A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and low interest rates could stretch into 2018, underpinned by a durable global tech upcycle, continued quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and still-loose regional macro policies.
2 min read | December 2017
Economics
What will China do to avoid following the Japanese bubble in the 80s and 90s? What level of US protectionism can we expect on Asian economies in 2018?
5 min video | December 2017
Economics
Using Confucius' theory of human life stages, we compare stages of economic development of India, China, the US and Japan.
3 min read | September 2017
Economics
We held our 14th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 6 to 9, 2017 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers in a highlight video from the conference.
6 min video | August 2017
Economics
Beneath the surface, the US economy has become far less dynamic and less responsive over the past several decades, placing downward pressure on productivity, wages, and rates. In this podcast, Mark Doms, Senior Economist at Nomura explains why.
11 min podcast | August 2017
Economics
In their recent ‘Asia Special Report’, our economists expect a decoupling from the Fed and no rate hikes until H2 2018. They explain this by using three proprietary tools to help improve ability to forecast headline and core inflation for 10 Asian countries.
3 min read | August 2017