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Economics

Asia Macro Outlook 2026: Mind The Gap

AI demand and the memory supercycle should sustain tech exports, but the outlook for non-tech demand is mixed. We see a North-South monetary policy divide across Asia.

5 min read | December 2025

Central Banks

What's on the Horizon for the Global Economy?

Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2025 by region.

3 min read | December 2025

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: The Art of Trump’s Asia Deals

Beyond the near term, the US aims to build new critical mineral supply chains, bring more economies under its economic sphere of influence, and drive Asian reforms through stealth.

3 min read | November 2025

Economics

US Economic Weekly Update

Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy

1 min read | November 2025

Japan in focus

Japan and Sanaenomics

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her new administration launch Sanaenomics

3 min read | October 2025

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: A Concentrated Recovery

Tariffs will soon begin to bite, impacting exports and investment, but strong demand for artificial intelligence and a memory supercycle should power a concentrated recovery

4 min read | October 2025

Investment Banking

Kangaroo Bonds Turbocharge on US Dollar Diversification

With a combination of attractive yields, a resilient Australian economy and evolving market infrastructure, the kangaroo bond market will play an increasingly important role in global fixed income

3 min read | October 2025

Japan in focus

The Takaichi Surprise

How the woman chosen to lead Japan’s incumbent political party could affect markets and the economy.

3 min read | October 2025

Technology

Balancing Artificial Intelligence Innovation with Compliance

The integrity of global financial markets in an AI-enabled future depends on coordinated implementation across the interconnected network of market participants, service providers, and oversight bodies

8 min read | September 2025

Japan in focus

Old but Agile

Japan’s 100-year-old companies demonstrate strength through continuous transformation.

3 min read | July 2025

Economics

Indonesia: Weak Consumption Is Likely To Linger

As we expect private consumption to remain subdued in the coming quarters, Nomura economists forecast 2025 GDP growth to come in at the lower end of the central bank’s forecast range

3 min read | July 2025

Economics

Asia Faces Growing Transshipment Challenges

Amid trade tensions, it has become increasingly complex for Asian countries to negotiate trade deals with the US while maintaining economic ties with China

2 min read | June 2025

Economics

China: A Major Step to Modernizing the PBoC’s Policymaking

Investors often find signals from China’s two-tier policy rate system perplexing. The Chinese central bank’s recent moves aim to streamline its policy rate framework, better guide market interest rates and improve liquidity management

2 min read | June 2025

Japan in focus

No Longer an Outlier

Ten ways the Japanese economy is moving toward greater alignment with other developed economies.

4 min read | June 2025

Japan in focus

The Era of Disappearing Shares

The number of outstanding shares in the Japanese equity market is decreasing as the unwinding of cross-shareholdings continues.

3 min read | May 2025

Economics

Macro and Micro Evidence of the Tariff Impact

Evidence suggests US import frontloading is benefitting many Asian economies, especially in electronics, but soft data are signaling weakness ahead

2 min read | May 2025

Economics

US-China Trade Deal Only Slightly Improves US Economic Outlook

While the larger than expected reduction in reciprocal tariffs and 90-day freeze offers a temporary respite in US-China tensions, the 10% tariff floor and sluggish negotiations with other trading partners suggest the broader trade landscape remains challenging.

3 min read | May 2025

Economics

US: Forecasting the Tariff Impact on Inflation

The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.

4 min read | May 2025

Economics

Impact of the US Tariff Shock

Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world

5 min read | April 2025

Economics

Liberation Day Tariff Policy Triggers Economic Forecast Revisions

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term

3 min read | April 2025

Economics

Asia: Low Inflation is Here to Stay

Disinflation is underway in Asia, with inflation falling within central bank targets across most countries.

3 min read | March 2025

Central Banks

How Trump’s Tariffs May Impact European Growth

US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.

4 min read | February 2025

Annual Outlook

US 2025 Outlook: Trump’s Policies to Shape the Path Ahead

The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.

9 min read | January 2025

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2025 Outlook – Shifting from Inflation to Growth

The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy

8 min read | December 2024

Annual Outlook

Japan Macro Outlook 2025

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the market returns to normal

4 min read | December 2024

Economics

The second wave of shocks in China

The shift by local governments from “helping hands” to “grabbing hands” should be taken seriously.

4 min read | September 2024

Central Banks

China Investor Forum: The Global Economic Outlook

We have seen an overall slowdown in long-term GDP growth across different global economies in the last 15-20 years and, in our long-term view, this trajectory will continue.

6 min read | September 2024

Central Banks

Germany: Here Comes the Recession

We believe Germany is in recession and structural factors such as manufacturing competition from China and an ageing and shrinking workforce will lead to a period of stagnation.

4 min read | September 2024

Economics

China’s increasing role in China+1

As economies diversify their supply chains to mitigate concentration risk, China has itself been busy expanding its manufacturing capabilities overseas.

4 min read | September 2024

Sustainability

Backing Biodiversity

Luzius Wirth is CEO of idverde, a sustainability-focused landscaping and maintenance company. Luzius tells Nomura Greentech that he sees more demand for biodiversity projects combining urbanization and nature to help people and the planet thrive.

3 min read | August 2024

Sustainability

Lithium-ion Loop

Leon Farrant is the CEO of Green Li-ion, a battery recycling company. Leon tells Nomura Greentech that he is pioneering innovative technology to create a circular economy for lithium-ion batteries.

3 min read | August 2024

Sustainability

Industrial Decarbonization

Olivia Wassenaar is Head of Sustainability and Infrastructure at Apollo Asset Management. Olivia tells Nomura Greentech that she is helping a range of companies – including high emitters – decarbonize.

3 min read | August 2024

Sustainability

Systems Transformation

Sanjeev Krishnan is Managing Partner at S2G Ventures, an investment firm focused on the food and agriculture, oceans and energy sectors. Sanjeev tells Nomura Greentech about his mission to transform our core systems to support a planet of 10 billion people.

3 min read | August 2024

Technology

Battery Revolution

Xavier Barbaro is CEO of Neoen, a renewables producer. Xavier tells Nomura Greentech that he is accelerating the roll out of battery storage as the next revolution in the green energy transition.

3 min read | July 2024

Volatility

The Rise of Algo Trading in FX Markets

Calmer FX markets, liquidity fragmentation and the legacy of the pandemic are among the factors fuelling a new wave of algo usage.

3 min read | June 2024

Sustainability

ESG360 – Sustainable Heroes XII: Green Leaders in Focus

We speak with the individuals who featured in the Summer 2024 edition of Nomura Greentech’s Sustainable Heroes magazine, which shines a spotlight on the trailblazers transforming our core systems to create a better world.

32 min video | June 2024

Economics

Asia's new flying geese

Asia is the main beneficiary of the China-plus-one strategy, led by India, Vietnam and Malaysia, while Mexico is benefiting outside of Asia.

4 min read | June 2024

Economics

Private credit can provide the most compelling opportunities in Asia

Investor interest in private credit in Asia has grown substantially over the last couple of years and private credit providers with an integrated and holistic offering, and ability to serve clients across jurisdictions and their credit lifecycle, will have an edge.

4 min read | May 2024

Sustainability

Policy Tailwinds – Leveraging a Megatrend to Effect Change

Nancy Floyd is founder of Nth Power, a US sustainability-focused venture capital firm. Nancy tells Nomura Greentech that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) combined with strong funding are a game-changer for clean tech firms.

4 min read | March 2024

Technology

Corporate Cybersecurity Risk – A Guide for Investors Part 2

In the second and final part of a new paper on cybersecurity, Jason Mortimer, Head of Sustainable Investment – Fixed Income at Nomura Asset Management, provides practical strategies investors can adopt when engaging portfolio companies to improve cyber hygiene with directly measurable impact.

3 min read | February 2024

Technology

Corporate Cybersecurity Risk – A Guide for Investors: Part 1

In a new two-part paper, Jason Mortimer, Head of Sustainable Investment – Fixed Income at Nomura Asset Management, examines how investors can leverage data insights to better engage with portfolio companies and mitigate cyber risk.

3 min read | February 2024

Sustainability

Green Hydrogen – Scaling Clean Power to Reach Net Zero

Roeland Baan is CEO of Topsoe, a Danish engineering company. Roeland tells Nomura Greentech that he is accelerating the rollout of green hydrogen to fight emissions in hard-to-abate industries.

4 min read | February 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Asia under Trumponomics 2.0

Increased protectionism, US-China decoupling, US macro policies, pivot from green energy and America First foreign policy could adversely impact many Asian economies.

5 min read | February 2024

Sustainability

Progress over Perfection – Accelerating Battery Recycling

Amy Schumacher, CEO of The Heritage Group, a U.S.-based sustainability investor, tells Nomura Greentech that she is applying generations of business experience to grow vital new industries such as battery recycling.

4 min read | February 2024

Sustainability

Hong Kong Harnesses Blockchain in Green Finance Push

Hong Kong’s use of blockchain in the green bonds sector highlights how the technology can be rolled out to reduce greenwashing while attracting a greater pool of investors.

3 min read | January 2024

Sustainability

Green Hydrogen Will Unlock New, Scalable Opportunities in Clean Energy

As Europe scales up production and import of green hydrogen, how can the industry mobilize capital to deliver bigger projects? Laurent Dallet, Managing Director at Nomura Greentech, discusses the increasing competition in the green hydrogen space.

3 min read | January 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Taylor rule estimates for Asia

A rules-based framework to project the trajectory of central bank policy rates suggests less easing than our forecasts in Korea and risks of deeper cuts in Thailand and China.

3 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

Europe 2024 Outlook – Will Inflation Get Back To Target?

We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.

4 min read | December 2023

Sustainability

COP28 – Achievements and Outcomes

The Dubai summit achieved a landmark agreement to transition away from fossil fuels for the first time. COP28 calls on countries to contribute to the global effort to accelerate action in this critical decade to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

3 min read | December 2023

Sustainability

ESG360 – Sustainable Heroes XI: Green Leaders in Focus

We talk with the individuals who featured in the Winter 2023 edition of Nomura Greentech’s Sustainable Heroes magazine, which shines a spotlight on the trailblazers transforming our key systems to create a better world.

26 min video | December 2023

Technology

Transforming money into data

Real-time settlements, interoperability of payment rails and programable instruments are boosting cross-border transactions.

3 min read | November 2023

Sustainability

ESG360 – Is Precision Fermentation the Future of Food?

In our latest ESG360 podcast, we speak with David Verbitsky, Head of AgTech & Sustainable Food at Nomura Greentech, about precision fermentation, a technology that is now being used for the manufacture of food and food ingredients.

17 min video | September 2023

Sustainability

Deploying Capital to Decarbonise Household Electrification

Investment banks are assessing opportunities for capital deployment in renewable energy technology. Alex Stein, EMEA Co-Head of Nomura Greentech, proposes an integrated solution to decarbonise energy in the home and incentivise customers to manage costs, consumption, and carbon footprint.

3 min read | September 2023

Economics

Europe – Heading Over the Recession Precipice

We now expect the Euro Area and UK to fall into recession. The latest survey data have been particularly weak, and lags in monetary policy, rising bankruptcies, plummeting demand for lending, and a poor global backdrop, all suggest it is only a matter of time until a recession materialises.

4 min read | September 2023

Sustainability

Biodegradable Plastic - Returning Consumer Waste to Nature

Niall Dunne, CEO of Polymateria, a UK-based maker of green packaging, tells Nomura Greentech that he is pioneering the use of biotransformation technology to eliminate the scourge of plastic pollution.

4 min read | September 2023

Sustainability

Energy Independence – Policy and Geopolitical Impact

Sébastien Clerc, CEO of Voltalia, a French renewables producer, tells Nomura Greentech that energy dependence concerns will accelerate the rollout of renewables in Europe.

4 min read | September 2023

Japan in focus

Japan’s Economy Wakes Up as Alarm Clocks Trigger Growth Boost

We previously explored the major events that led to a decades-long deflationary spiral in Japan. Here, we lay out how Japan’s economy can wake from its slumber by focusing on four main themes, (1) human resources strategy; (2) software investment; (3) entrenching a price-hiking culture; and (4) governance reforms.

5 min read | August 2023

Sustainability

Virtuous Circle - Recyclable, Reusable and Compostable Packaging

Prabha Parameswaran, Group President, Growth and Strategy at Colgate-Palmolive tells Nomura Greentech how the consumer giant is focused on recyclable, reusable and compostable packaging to create a healthier future for all people, their pets and our planet.

3 min read | August 2023

Sustainability

Green Investing – Realizing a Renewable Future

Hidetake Takahashi, Head of Energy and Eco Services at ORIX, a Japanese financial services group, tells Nomura Greentech that he is doubling renewable energy generation capacity through strategic acquisitions

3 min read | August 2023

Sustainability

U.S. Waste Market Needs Better Incentives to Make an Impact

Moving the U.S. waste industry to a more circular and recycling-led market represents a major investment opportunity yet the effort faces headwinds due to ingrained consumer behavior, landfill economics, and fragmented policy which need better incentives to change.

3 min read | August 2023

Sustainability

Investors Focused on Solving EV Charging Infrastructure Conundrum

Electric vehicle adoption is outpacing charging infrastructure build-out. However, massive ongoing investment in the sector combined with rapidly evolving technologies, promises to accelerate the required infrastructure to support continued growth.

3 min read | July 2023

Sustainability

The Growing U.S. Water Crisis

Western U.S. water shortages caused by mega droughts combined with under investment in the industry threaten a crisis unless desalination technologies improve or fresh water is used more efficiently.

3 min read | July 2023

Japan in focus

Japan’s Three Lost Decades – Escaping Deflation

Investor interest in the Japanese economy is increasing globally, due to expectations of an end to deflation. We summarize the major events that led to a decades-long deflationary spiral.

4 min read | July 2023

Technology

How Technology is Altering Asia’s Trading Landscape

The growth of the dark pool space and the rise of electronic crossing platforms are playing an instrumental part in the evolution of Asia’s execution landscape as buyside trading desks look to tap into additional sources of liquidity efficiently and anonymously.

3 min read | July 2023

Sustainability

Addressing the Infrastructure Inflection Point

Innovative financing is an essential component of the green energy transition. Vinod Mukani, Global Head of Infrastructure and Power Finance, discusses how opportunities must be looked at differently in order to make infrastructure assets truly bankable.

3 min read | June 2023

Sustainability

ESG360 – Sustainable Heroes X: Green Leaders in Focus

We feature 4 individuals who appeared in the Summer 2023 edition of Nomura Greentech’s Sustainable Heroes magazine, which shines a spotlight on some of the trailblazers who are accelerating the net zero transition.

29 min video | June 2023

Economics

Asia’s time to shine

Asia, currently the fastest-growing economic region, has always been a land of opportunity with significant scope for economic development. So the pertinent question is not “why Asia?”, but “why Asia now?”

5 min read | June 2023

Sustainability

Blue Bonds – A Blueprint for Ocean Conservation

Blue bonds, like their better known green cousins, are growing in popularity as awareness of ocean conservation becomes more important and countries commit to protecting the seas.

3 min read | May 2023

Sustainability

ESG360 – Blue Bonds: Unlocking the Ocean’s Potential

The recent UN accord to protect 30% of the Oceans by 2030 combined with increasing investor appetite are providing the ingredients to unleash growth in blue bonds, which aim to expand the ocean economy.

15 min video | May 2023

Sustainability

Are Carbon Markets the Missing Piece in the Climate Change Puzzle?

Carbon markets are an often overlooked solution for combatting climate change. Andrew Bowley, Sustainability Governance Officer, explains that as more firms make net-zero commitments, we need to make it easier to offset emissions.

3 min read | May 2023

Central Banks

MacroBrew - The ECB and BoE: Fighting for The Last Hike

In this MacroBrew fireside, we discuss whether the ECB will really defy market pricing and look to raise rates above 4% this year, and what risks we should watch out for in Europe in 2023.

18 min video | April 2023

Central Banks

MacroBrew - US Debt Limit: Is It Worse Than 2011?

We discuss the US debt limit and what economic and monetary policy impact the uncertainty could have, as well as political risks and what it means for FX and rates markets.

47 min video | April 2023

Sustainability

Combining Innovation and Investment to Power the Energy Transition

The energy transition will be driven by entrepreneurs, ideas and companies, but they can only succeed with the right support and investment. Jeff McDermott, Global Co-Head of Investment Banking, discusses how the landscape is evolving to empower success.

3 min read | April 2023

Sustainability

ESG360 - Cyberattack: The Growing Threat for ESG Investors

The rapid increase in networking and digitalization in our daily work patterns has increased the cyberattack surface available for criminals to exploit. With cyberattacks growing in both frequency and severity, we discuss the increasing threat for ESG investors.

19 min video | March 2023

Sustainability

China’s Demographic Timebomb: Lessons from Japan’s Lost Decades

China is contending with a low birthrate and population aging similar to Japan with the added challenge of facing these headwinds before it becomes affluent. China can learn from Japan by raising productivity through structural reforms to sustain economic growth.

4 min read | March 2023

Sustainability

Why Cybersecurity Is the Biggest Hidden ESG Risk

Cybersecurity is fast becoming the top global risk by impact and likelihood along with climate change and geopolitical conflict. In response, investors need an efficient model to integrate cybersecurity into their investment decisions.

4 min read | March 2023

Sustainability

Battery Reincarnation – A Second Life in Rural Electrification

Lina Lee is Co-Founder of Durapower, a Singapore-based energy storage solutions provider. Lina tells Nomura Greentech that she is extending the duration of electric vehicle batteries by giving them a second life as storage for renewables.

3 min read | March 2023

Economics

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: This Time Is Different

With the ECB far from done on raising interest rates and government debt levels higher than they were before the last sovereign debt crisis, this is an issue at the forefront of many investors’ and no doubt central bankers’ minds.

3 min read | March 2023

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly

We raise our 2023 GDP growth projections slightly, but a services-driven recovery in China and the US, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not as positive for Asia.

3 min read | February 2023

Sustainability

Scaling Solar – Harnessing Agriculture to Boost Deployment

Alexander Arcache is Managing Director and founder of Kronos Solar, a German renewables company. Alexander believes agrivoltaics – the shared use of land for both solar power generation and agriculture – will be a key driver of future solar deployment.

4 min read | February 2023

Economics

How Far Could UK House Prices Fall?

We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.

3 min read | January 2023

Sustainability

Trade not Aid – Rewarding Communities for Protecting Nature

Ana Haurie is CEO of Respira International, an impact-driven carbon finance company. Ana tells Nomura Greentech that she is using the principal of ‘trade not aid’ via the voluntary carbon market to empower communities and get us to net zero.

4 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2023 Outlook – Will Sovereign Debt Risk be a Theme of 2023?

Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.

4 min read | January 2023

Central Banks

MacroBrew – The Big ECB and BOE Week

In this episode, we discuss this week's ECB and BOE meetings, and their views against a growth and inflation backdrop.

18 min video | December 2022

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Rolling with the Punches

Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.

3 min read | December 2022

Sustainability

The Diversity Dividend - Equity as the Bridge to Inclusion

We explore how investment in high quality human capital development programmes for a new dynamic era of inclusion is not only essential for unlocking the diversity dividend, it benefits organizational performance.

21 min video | December 2022

Sustainability

Making Diversity Work: Equity as the Bridge to Inclusion

Part 7 of our Nomura - University of Sheffield research on the social pillar of ESG in East Asia looks at how companies need to rethink their working patterns and expectations for all employees in order to unlock the diversity dividend.

5 min read | November 2022

Sustainability

COP27 – Achievements and Outcomes

The Sharm El-Sheikh conference resulted in agreement to carry forward into future COP discussions loss and damage arrangements but didn’t move the needle on limiting climate change.

3 min read | November 2022

Economics

Asia Macro in 30: Macro-financial vulnerabilities in Asia

With weak growth, higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and high leverage making a potent mix, hear from our economists as they discuss macro-financial vulnerabilities in Asia, zooming in on credit stress in South Korea and balance of payments concerns in Indonesia and the Philippines.

30 min podcast | November 2022

Sustainability

ESG360 – Gender Equality, Disability and the Diversity Dividend

We take note of how companies in East Asia compare to European peers in addressing diversity in the workplace, and what these companies can do to embrace disabled workers and achieve gender equality for the long run.

22 min video | October 2022

Sustainability

The Benefits of Employing Disabled Workers

Part 6 of our Nomura - University of Sheffield research on the social pillar of ESG in East Asia looks at disabled employment and how the diversity dividend will inform business performance and sustainability.

5 min read | October 2022

Central Banks

MacroBrew – What Sways The Fed?

In this episode, we explore the recent moves in US markets, the softer US data and their Fed call.

27 min video | October 2022

Sustainability

SDG 10 – How Social Finance can Address Inequality in Japan

Japan faces challenges in achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 10: Reduced Inequalities, but sustainable finance can play a pivotal role in tackling the problem of income disparities among the elderly and single-parent households.

4 min read | October 2022

Sustainability

Achieving Gender Equality in South Korea

Part 5 of our Nomura - University of Sheffield research on the social pillar of ESG in East Asia examines gender balance across top companies in South Korea and reveals the industries most favorable to women.

5 min read | September 2022

Sustainability

Modern Farming – Reducing Food Miles and Waste

Kathy Valiasek, CFO at Local Bounti, a controlled environment agriculture company, told Nomura Greentech how she is helping to pioneer modern methods of farming that reduce food waste while using less of the planet’s resources.

3 min read | September 2022

Sustainability

Insect Effect – Reinventing the World’s Food System

Clément Ray, CEO and co-founder of biotech company Innovafeed, told Nomura Greentech how the startup, which produces insect protein as a sustainable alternative to higher emission protein sources, is focused on building a zero waste agri-food chain.

4 min read | September 2022

Sustainability

How Companies Can Adapt to Counter Demographic Changes

Part 4 of our Nomura - University of Sheffield research on the social pillar of ESG in East Asia examines how diversity & inclusion, human capital and employee representation will inform South Korean company performance over the long-term

5 min read | August 2022

Sustainability

Ice is Life – Averting a Climate Disaster

Lewis Pugh is an endurance swimmer, environmental campaigner and UN patron of the Oceans. He is the first person to complete long distance swims in every ocean of the world. He told Nomura Greentech how overfishing, pollution and warmer waters are threatening sea life.

5 min read | August 2022

Sustainability

Trash to Treasure – Funding Tomorrow’s Circular Economy Startups

Meghan Sharp, Global Head of Decarbonization Partners, a joint-venture between BlackRock and Singapore state-fund Temasek to invest in green companies, told Nomura Greentech how she is helping scale the low-carbon startups of tomorrow.

6 min read | August 2022

Sustainability

The Social Data Challenge for ESG in South Korea

Part 3 of our Nomura - University of Sheffield research on the social pillar of ESG in East Asia explores the challenges information providers face in gathering and interpreting data.

5 min read | August 2022

Sustainability

Why India Needs to Accelerate Renewables Adoption

India has the world's second-largest population and its rapid growth rate and low per-capita energy consumption means an insatiable thirst for energy in the years ahead

4 min read | July 2022

Sustainability

Why Focus on Employment Standards in ESG?

Part 2 of our research project between Nomura and the University of Sheffield on the social pillar of ESG in East Asia, highlights how the best companies align employees’ and the firm’s values and objectives.

4 min read | July 2022

Central Banks

MacroBrew - US Recession Risks

Our US economist and desk strategist share their thoughts on how risks around a recession in the US will impact markets

32 min video | June 2022

Sustainability

ESG360 - The ‘S’ Factor in East Asia

A research project between Nomura and the University of Sheffield’s School of East Asian Studies to explore the Social pillar of ESG with a particular focus on measuring employment in South Korea.

18 min video | June 2022

Central Banks

MacroBrew - The ECB & BOE: Earlier and Faster Hikes?

Our economist and desk strategist share thoughts on the materially new hawkishness from the ECB and the hot and cold approach of the Bank of England to monetary policy.

28 min video | May 2022

Technology

How Artificial Intelligence is Reshaping ESG Ratings

Some of the biggest global investors including Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund are using computer algorithms to gain deeper insights into the ESG effectiveness of companies they invest in.

4 min read | April 2022

Central Banks

MacroBrew - The Fed’s changing reaction function

The Fed and markets are reaching a potential inflection point. Fed participants are shifting towards a view that restrictive rates, beyond what they and markets have previously anticipated, will be needed to slow inflation. These conditions create an elevated risk of a mild recession in 2024.

60 min podcast | April 2022

Central Banks

MacroBrew - The BOJ’s Policy Stance

We discuss the BOJ’s policy stance, the path forward and the “noise” around monetary policy as global inflationary pressures build.

44 min podcast | January 2022

Sustainability

ESG360 - What to Watch in 2022

Charting the key trends shaping the world of sustainable finance as companies and countries strive to cut carbon emissions and make the world a fairer place.

28 min video | January 2022

Economics

Asia Outlook 2022: As the Tide Turns

We are cautious on Asia’s economic outlook in 2022 as the emergence of the Omicron variant reminds us that the pandemic is far from over.

2 min read | December 2021

Sustainability

How Green is your ESG Fund?

Our analysis of popular ESG funds provides a toolkit to detect greenwashing and separate the most authentic green investments from the rest.

6 min read | November 2021

Central Banks

MacroBrew - The Covid 19 Endgame

The endgame of Covid-19 leaves economists in a challenging position; in many ways, the outlook is more complicated now than it was at the onset of the pandemic.

28 min video | November 2021

Sustainability

COP26 Review

COP26 highlights: debate on ending coal use, US-China agreement, 1.5°C target

5 min read | November 2021

Economics

Indonesia: Getting There on Tax Reforms

Tax reforms are expected to improve the government’s overall fiscal position, but does not address some longer term issues such as a high VAT coverage threshold.

3 min read | November 2021

Economics

The Covid-19 Endgame: Learning to Live With it

The endgame of Covid-19 leaves economists in a challenging position when making long-term forecasts. In many ways, the outlook is more complicated now than it was at the onset of the pandemic.

5 min read | November 2021

Sustainability

COP26: What to Expect from the UN’s Climate Summit

Ahead of COP26 in Glasgow, five sustainability experts across Nomura reflect on the issues that will be discussed to help the global economy reach net zero carbon emissions and keep the planet below 1.5°C

8 min read | October 2021

Central Banks

Korea: Japanification Risks Strike Again

Despite a faster-than-expected recovery from the pandemic, structural headwinds are expected to result in lower economic growth in South Korea.

28 min video | October 2021

Economics

The “Troubled Ten” in EM

We warn of ten economies that appear most vulnerable: Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Hungary, Romania, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines.

2 min read | September 2021

Central Banks

Is the ECB calling the end of the pandemic?

The ECB looks set to conclude its pandemic response program (PEPP) and step up its asset purchasing program (APP) in its stead.

5 min read | September 2021

Sustainability

Making a Mark - The Emergence of Impact Finance

An unconventional branch of finance looks set to play a bigger role on the world stage amid a growing realisation that urgent action is required to meet climate targets.

5 min read | September 2021

Sustainability

"Decarbonization is a Business Opportunity to be Maximized"

María Victoria Zingoni, Executive Managing Director at Spanish energy giant Repsol, told Nomura Greentech that the company is transforming its business by adding solar and wind farms to become net-zero by 2050.

7 min read | August 2021

Central Banks

Indonesia: A Worrying Wave Hits Hard

The Indonesian government has introduced more stringent measures to tackle the resurgence of Covid-19 cases amid the spread of the delta variant and low vaccination rate.

2 min read | August 2021

Sustainability

AI for Stock Selection – the ESG Connection

We introduce a novel AI-based technique for rating company ESG quality. Our method employs a unique Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach to analyse earnings call transcripts, uncovering ESG-relevant narratives and extracting ESG signals we can use to guide stock selection.

4 min read | August 2021

Volatility

VOW21: Best of Volatility of the World 2021

Key note presentations on 5 things you didn't know about ESG, the challenges facing post pandemic economies, the evolution of the sustainability mega-trend, and how pursuing ESG investments need not trash your portfolio.

2 min read | July 2021

Sustainability

The New ESG Playbook

EU Sustainable Finance Rules Start to Take Shape

3 min read | July 2021

Sustainability

ESG: Fad or Future?

As ESG investing gains momentum, we explore the factors that point toward this being more a genuine lasting shift than a short-lived fad

9 min read | July 2021

Economics

Resilience of global M&A

Global M&A saw a marked increase in the wake of the pandemic, but is this rise here to stay, and if so in which sectors?

6 min read | June 2021

Sustainability

A new green finance paradigm

The pandemic has spurred a reset in values regarding social and environmental stewardship.

4 min read | April 2021

Economics

China: We See No Fiscal Cliff in 2021

With factors such as a moderate 2020 stimulus, tighter controls on property market financing and planned tapering, we believe China’s economy is unlikely to overheat.

2 min read | April 2021

Economics

Biden’s Green Shift and its Impact on Asia

A pillar of US President Joe Biden’s bid for the presidency was the radical reform of US environmental policy, but what will it mean for Asia?

3 min read | January 2021

Central Banks

2021 Equities Outlook: ...it is more about 2022

In 2021, investors will likely focus on an eventual 2022 renormalization driven by potentially even better vaccines/therapeutics to help contain the spread of the virus.

17 min video | December 2020

Sustainability

Social Impact Investing Looks Set to Rise in ASEAN

ASEAN countries have made significant advances in reducing poverty and improving human development but improvements in gender equality and social mobility have been slow.

4 min read | December 2020

Economics

Can you put a price on pollution?

Growing recognition of the criticality of decarbonising the world’s economies has lead to Carbon Pricing, but how does it work?

3 min read | December 2020

Economics

Asia under Bidenomics

Following the recent US elections, we explore the likely impact of Biden’s policies on Asia’s economies.

10 min read | November 2020

Economics

Highlights from Nomura ESG Conference 2020

The global pandemic and increasing severity of climate change are redefining how risks are managed and opportunities captured in the financial sector. Our inaugural ESG conference on October 21-22, 2020 took a deep dive into these areas and the sustainable finance trends shaping the decade ahead, with a focus on Asia.

7 min read | November 2020

Economics

Why have European retail sales recovered so strongly?

Since lockdowns began to be lifted different sectors across Europe’s large economies have performed in different ways. But retailing – almost universally across developed markets – has rebounded at a far quicker pace.

3 min read | September 2020

Economics

More important than ever: why ESG investment will remain crucial

ESG investment in Japan is taking off, attracting intense demand from institutional investors. Financing ESG projects has moved from simple green loans to a highly diversified range of products, in which Nomura has a long history of innovation.

4 min read | August 2020

Central Banks

The world post Covid-19 (part 2)

The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.

29 min video | August 2020

Geopolitics

Government debt - a new paradigm?

For economies to stay afloat, historic amounts of fiscal and economic stimulus have been provided, but how will this sovereign debt be repaid?

2 min read | August 2020

Central Banks

The world post Covid-19

The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.

3 min read | July 2020

Volatility

FX Options: Embracing the Potential of Platforms

Regulatory requirements, clients’ drive for efficiency, and the experience of working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic are spurring a shift of FX option activity to platforms.

3 min read | June 2020

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Asia: ESG Perspectives

With Covid-19 being a common factor affecting the economy across industries, we also take a look at its impact on capital markets and what that means for sustainable finance.

4 min read | June 2020

Technology

Nomura Investment Forum Asia: Asia Healthcare Post Covid-19

Unsurprisingly, the hospital sector is one of the industries that has been most impacted by the Covid-19 outbreak. Our analysts specializing in this sector tell us how countries such as China, ASEAN and India have been dealing with the pandemic and what can be expected in the future.

3 min read | June 2020

Economics

The Global Economic Impact of Covid-19

Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.

3 min read | April 2020

Economics

Upturn in global IT cycle and the Japanese economy

Attention is focusing on the global IT cycle following the launch of commercial 5G services. Global semiconductor sales bottomed out in 2019 H1 and recovered in the summer.

4 min read | February 2020

Economics

Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

5 min video | January 2020

Central Banks

UK Outlook 2020

How will the UK fair amongst some Brexit clarity, will 2020 be the year of recovery?

1 min read | January 2020

Economics

Euro Area Outlook 2020

What's in store for the Euro Area as we move into 2020?

2 min video | January 2020

Japan in focus

Quantum Computer Research of Nomura Asset Management

NAM’s Innovation Lab Department and the Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University explore practical application of quantum computers especially in the machine learning field.

4 min read | November 2019

Central Banks

India: A Difficult Climb Ahead

Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.

2 min video | November 2019

Technology

Does eFX still require a human touch?

Client demands for speed and efficiency, coupled with regulatory pressure for transparency, will continue to drive the growth of electronic trading, including trading of more complex products

5 min read | November 2019

Japan in focus

Japan 2030

Nomura supported the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in the creation of a deep dive podcast series looking into the future of Japan and where their culture, economy, and government will be by 2030 and beyond.

20 min podcast | September 2019

Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

Economics

Is the US on the verge of a recession?

With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?

4 min read | September 2019

Central Banks

Japan: conditions for more BOJ easing and implications

Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?

3 min read | July 2019

Central Banks

Asia Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2019

The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.

3 min video | July 2019

Central Banks

Are the Major Central Banks Trapped?

The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.

2 min read | July 2019

Central Banks

Global midyear economic outlook 2019

Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.

5 min read | July 2019

Economics

Damocles Update: Who is at Risk?

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

3 min podcast | July 2019

Emerging Markets

China Video Surveillance: Secure Ground in the Homeland

For video surveillance companies in China, we believe there are a few ways to increase sales growth momentum: the first is to expand the market from video surveillance to the more broad-based security product market by providing access control, intruder alarm systems and physical security and other security-related products and services.

2 min read | July 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Will the Renminbi Crack Seven?

The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.

5 min read | June 2019

Economics

What Drives the Oil Price Rise Matters

We found that a sustained rise in oil prices affects emerging markets more than developed markets, and can drive major differentiation in EM economic performance. In the event that oil prices continue to rise, there are likely to be clear winners and losers in EM.

2 min read | May 2019

Economics

China Home Appliances: Structural Positives, Near-Term Challenges

In view of a slower economy, overseas exposure has naturally become the key differentiator that will help home appliance makers arrest the growth slowdown, despite our cautious take, on the effectiveness of the forthcoming nationwide incentive package on home appliance sales.

2 min read | April 2019

Volatility

Low volatility, but can it last?

Apart from Brexit, US-China trade talks, and the potential for Fed cuts, one of the big themes of 2019 thus far has been the surprising state of market volatility.

9 min video | April 2019

Economics

Chinese Hog Cycle and Inflation

While Beijing’s policymakers are trying to boost growth by ramping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, the last thing they want is a rapid rise in inflation.

2 min read | April 2019

Economics

Asia Top Ideas Breakfast Series

On March 8, 2019, some of our top alpha generating analysts came together to share their latest views for the coming 2Q19 quarter in different industries including, energy, transportation, gaming and technology, to name a few.

13 min podcast | March 2019

Focused thinking

Search

| February 2019

Emerging Markets

Spearheading game-changing East-West M&A deals as Asia’s leading investment bank

Asian M&A shows no sign of abating — even despite the fluctuating geopolitical environment. As the only global investment bank anchored in Asia, Nomura is strongly positioned to advise companies aiming to close significant, value-accretive transactions that cut across borders and jurisdictions.

2 min read | January 2019

Economics

Equity Markets in 2019: Soft Power Matters

As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.

2 min video | December 2018

Emerging Markets

Asia FX and rates outlook 2019

We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.

0 min video | December 2018

Central Banks

India Outlook 2019: Elephant to Lose Stamina

Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.

1 min video | December 2018

Economics

Korea Outlook 2019: Expect a Counter-Cyclical BOK Policy

We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.

2 min video | December 2018

Economics

ASEAN outlook 2019: split into two camps

As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.

2 min video | December 2018

Economics

China outlook 2019: after winter comes spring

As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.

4 min video | December 2018

Economics

Asia in 2019: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.

3 min video | December 2018

Focused thinking

New directions: diversification of alternative risk premia strategies

Despite a difficult year, investors remain keen to use alternative risk premia strategies. However, current approaches may be less diversified than they appear, especially given cross-contamination in cash equity factors. A more diversified approach making use of fixed income has led to better returns and a more resilient portfolio

2 min read | December 2018

Volatility

New directions: diversification of alternative risk premia strategies

Despite a difficult year, investors remain keen to use alternative risk premia strategies. However, current approaches may be less diversified than they appear, especially given cross-contamination in cash equity factors. A more diversified approach making use of fixed income has led to better returns and a more resilient portfolio

1 min read | December 2018

Economics

Oil Price Slump: A Big EM Differentiator

Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on emerging markets than developed markets.

3 min read | November 2018

Economics

US-Sino Trade Friction: Not All a Lose-Lose Outcome for Asia

Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.

7 min video | November 2018

Central Banks

Getting to know the rule setters: gauging how Asia’s central banks set policy

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.

5 min read | November 2018

Emerging Markets

New Technology: Memory Hierarchy Emerge Through the Mix

Computing architecture is advancing owing to memory hierarchy innovation. While the performance of processors and storage continues to improve, the gap between their performances widens.

3 min read | November 2018

Central Banks

Surplus or deficit: what drives the current account matters

Current account deficits in Indonesia and the Philippines are not necessarily a bad sign; equally, current account surpluses in Northeast Asia are not necessarily a good sign. The key is what is driving them.

4 min read | October 2018

Economics

In the hunt for yield where are the new sources of volatility?

As mainstream markets evolve, structured products that focus on volatility are becoming more central to risk management and investment. Traditional products, such as long-only equities or bonds, are no longer a sufficient means for investors to achieve their goals.

1 min read | September 2018

Economics

Thailand: a fragile investment cycle

The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.

2 min read | September 2018

Central Banks

Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises

Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.

3 min read | September 2018

Japan in focus

What can we learn from the history of trade wars?

From the 1950s to the 1990s Japan often found itself in disagreement with the US over trade. Although the trade war in automobiles in the 1980s was to do with the US’s current account deficit, there was significant trade friction from the 1950s to the 1970s related to textiles and steel, which took place before the US had a pronounced current account deficit.

2 min read | August 2018

Focused thinking

About Us

Explore how our truly integrated, cross-asset platform and range of advisory, underwriting, risk solutions and capital-raising services to corporate, institutions, governments and public sector organizations delivers results in markets East and West.

| August 2018

Economics

Deciphering EM Rate Expectations

What are some of the patterns in Asia with regards to fixing and policy rates? We analyze 14 EM rates markets through the prism of our rates expectation framework.

2 min read | August 2018

Emerging Markets

China FinTech – 2018: survival of the fittest

Artificial Intelligence (particularly machine learning) and big data technology have been widely adopted in the bank and insurance sectors, owing to the need of processing and understanding the growing customer base and industry data. Over the next two years, we anticipate a “survival of the fittest” scenario.

3 min read | July 2018

Economics

DEFCON 4: Financial Risks are Rising. Vigilance Should, Too

The movie WarGames helped introduce the DEFCON system to the public back in 1983 (including a 14-year-old future bank strategist who took his first date to the movie, perhaps explaining why it remains memorable). DEFCON—or defense readiness condition—reflects U.S. military preparedness for war on a rising scale of severity.

5 min read | July 2018

Technology

Asia Pacific technology: bigger wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution

While the first three industrial revolutions transformed our world, the fourth industrial revolution encompasses breakthroughs in robotics, AI, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the Internet of Things (IoT), 3D printing and autonomous vehicles.

2 min read | June 2018

Economics

Why market volatility is inevitable

Our research analysts, as well as representatives from our sales and trading desks from around the globe discuss the inevitability of volatility, and its true meaning. Volatility is often misunderstood and can mean different things to different people.

3 min video | June 2018

Economics

What are the five key drivers for Latin America FX in H2 2018?

Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm FX in H2 2018. We have identified the following five key drivers which are likely to continue to be important in terms of currency performance in the second-half of the year.

1 min read | June 2018

Economics

ASEAN: One body, many faces

As China’s labour-intensive manufacturing industries fan out across the wider region and local firms flex their muscles in capital-light industries such as ride-hailing and e-commerce, a significant number of blue-chip companies have moved into ASEAN.

6 min read | June 2018

Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018

We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.

2 min video | June 2018

Economics

Unintended Consequences: How Deregulation Could Lead to Credit Risk

As banks savor the possibility of deregulation, many are anticipating a ramp up in new lending. While this optimism may feel good in the moment, it’s important to keep in mind a lesson from history: when legislators make decisions in highly regulated areas, unintended consequences often result.

4 min read | May 2018

Economics

Global Emerging Markets Podcast Series

Goldilocks economic conditions of strong growth and low inflation and the hunt for yield mean that most investors remain optimistic. But in our three podcasts below, Nomura economists point out that there are good reasons to be cautious.

11 min podcast | May 2018

Economics

Brazil: What is currently priced in? (Presidential election edition)

Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.

2 min read | May 2018

Emerging Markets

Higher Oil Prices Drive EM Divergence

A continued rise in oil prices would divide emerging markets by economic performance. The macroeconomic cost to large net oil importers with weak economic fundamentals can be disproportionately larger than the benefit to net oil exporters

2 min read | May 2018

Focused thinking

About us

We’re always looking for opportunities born out of connected ideas. Whether they are found in emerging markets or empowered by new technologies, focused on Japan or dedicated to managing volatility.

| May 2018

Emerging Markets

Where are the risks in an EM snapback?

Four potential events this year could lead to an emerging markets pricing snapback: a US bond market selloff, the global unwind of quantitative easing, a China growth slowdown and the risk of a trade war.

3 min read | April 2018

Economics

What is fuelling trade in global emerging markets?

Trade has played a critical role in the development of emerging market (EM) countries. But as we discuss in our video, the increase in protectionist rhetoric in recent years threatens to stall or even reverse globalization. How will EM countries cope?

2 min read | April 2018

Economics

How is technology transforming global emerging markets?

Technology has transformed the global economy in the last decade and made it easier to transfer knowledge. Now it’s giving emerging markets a competitive advantage, allowing them in some cases to be more agile and innovative than developed economies.

1 min video | April 2018

Focused thinking

Who would bear the brunt of increased US protectionism?

In this study, our economists assess the impact of US trade protectionism, centering on China. The goal is to examine which countries and industries would ultimately bear the brunt should the US step up trade protectionism.

1 min read | March 2018

Economics

Deleveraging in a political milieu: Asia’s elephant faces a pivotal year

Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.

3 min read | March 2018

Economics

China: Beyond Falling M2 Growth

M2 growth has fallen sharply in China since mid-2016 and has recently recorded consecutive record lows. Although the validity of M2 growth as a liquidity measure has been undermined by thriving shadow banking financing in recent years, it is likely that M2 growth will remain a valid indicator of aggregate money supply.

2 min read | March 2018

Japan in focus

Japanese cross-border M&A takes off

In a time of global economic and political uncertainty, Japan’s relative stability stands out. After more than two decades of slow growth, the country continues to face many challenges.

6 min read | March 2018

Economics

Global Emerging Markets Seminar 2018

In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.

1 min video | February 2018

Economics

Time for the National Pension Service to escape “home bias”

The National Pension Service (NPS) is Korea’s social security reserve fund. It was created in 1988 to support the retirement benefits of its citizens. Asset allocation ultimately determines the long-term investment performance of any pension fund. We explore five reasons why the NPS will become more ambitious in accelerating its allocation shift to overseas assets, particularly equities.

3 min read | February 2018

Economics

Outlook 2018: US

With a new Federal Reserve chairman set to take office early in 2018, a Republic Congress at the helm and the future of free trade agreements and healthcare up in the air, what can investors expect in 2018?

2 min video | December 2017

Economics

Asia Economic Outlook 2018

A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and low interest rates could stretch into 2018, underpinned by a durable global tech upcycle, continued quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and still-loose regional macro policies.

2 min read | December 2017

Economics

Outlook 2018: Asia

What will China do to avoid following the Japanese bubble in the 80s and 90s? What level of US protectionism can we expect on Asian economies in 2018?

5 min video | December 2017

Focused thinking

Navigating US Tax Reform

US Congress and markets are once again focusing on tax policy in the US. What is the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a major tax reform package by the end of 2017?

7 min podcast | November 2017

Economics

Oil price moves: A big EM differentiator

With oil prices on the rise this year, we discuss its impact on different emerging markets (EM). The rise in oil prices redistributes the global income from consumers to producers, which can lead to a varied macroeconomic effect on the EM universe.

4 min podcast | November 2017

Focused thinking

Eddie Jones: laser-sharp focus

At Nomura, we are proud to partner with Eddie who previously coached the Japan rugby team to the biggest international result in their history during the 2015 Rugby World Cup, when Japan’s national team beat one of the tournament favourites, South Africa.

1 min video | November 2017

Economics

Get ready for rising rates

Rising interest rates present challenges for both investors and corporates. However, there are a variety of cost-effective solutions available, according to Matthew Reader, Head of Fixed Income Structured Products and Jonathan Rogers, Head of Rates & Hybrid Structuring, EMEA.

6 min read | November 2017

Economics

Will UK housing continue to stand tall or fall?

Over the past 30 years real interest rates in the UK and other developed economies have been on a long-term downwards trend. This has supported the valuations of many assets, including house prices. With real interest rates predicted to rise gradually over the next decade or two, precisely the opposite (a ‘decapitalisation’, or a fall in real house prices) could happen and we believe real house prices could be 20% lower by 2030.

2 min read | September 2017

Economics

China: coming out of the shadows

The expansion of shadow banking in China was driven by banks' risk appetite to pursue high returns against a backdrop of slower economic growth, economic rebalancing and behind-the-curve regulation of the sector. As China’s capital market continues to mature, the key for regulators will be to minimize and control the risks that shadow banking poses.

4 min read | September 2017

Economics

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2017

We held our 14th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 6 to 9, 2017 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers in a highlight video from the conference.

6 min video | August 2017

Economics

Is the US economy not as dynamic as it used to be?

Beneath the surface, the US economy has become far less dynamic and less responsive over the past several decades, placing downward pressure on productivity, wages, and rates. In this podcast, Mark Doms, Senior Economist at Nomura explains why.

11 min podcast | August 2017

Economics

The tranquil path of Asian inflation

In their recent ‘Asia Special Report’, our economists expect a decoupling from the Fed and no rate hikes until H2 2018. They explain this by using three proprietary tools to help improve ability to forecast headline and core inflation for 10 Asian countries.

3 min read | August 2017

Economics

Are striving tiger cubs the next phase of flying geese?

Our Asia economists present their scorecard of 23 Emerging Markets on foreign direct investment attractiveness and confirm India and ASEAN’s advantage over other Emerging Markets due to multiple push and pull factors.

11 min podcast | August 2017

Technology

China FinTech: from exuberance to execution

Since mid-2016, the FinTech industry in China has gone through its early stage hype to what is now a process of “survival of the fittest”. At the moment, we are again on the verge of a breakthrough in the FinTech field, with blockchain and AI taking the lead.

4 min read | May 2017

Volatility

Deal-contingent hedging: a flexible way to mitigate risk

Recent geopolitical volatility has had dramatic repercussions in the financial markets. The Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU have caused sterling to plummet to lows not seen in years, and protectionist rhetoric from the US has sent shockwaves through global FX markets and lifted interest rates to 5-year-highs.

4 min read | January 2017